Of course it's a coordination problem. It probably needs to be a regulation before it will actually happen.
I'm just having a hard time groking that contrails are really that impacting. TFA just quotes a bunch of numbers, but does not actually discuss how the numbers were derived. Maybe I've just been around too many people into Chemtrails, but this just reads to me as an offshoot of that type of thinking.
And also this paper which is a very in-depth technical explanation: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S135223102...
I understand why you're reminded of chemtrails, but it is not crazy or conspiratorial to look at these giant lines in the sky and think "those things must be doing something". You can't then make the leap to "it's intentional and it's a biological weapon to control my mind and I don't need any evidence to believe this", but you can take the next step of looking into decades of research on the topic and deciding if the conclusions make sense to you.
Imagine a large city in an area that is always cloudy versus one in a sunny desert. They are both the same size, but the one in the desert is going to have an absolutely massive amount of evening heat release due to the urban heatsink effect.
I think more accurately it's not crazy to think they might be doing something. I could equally be convinced if researchers crunched the numbers and concluded they might seem big but they're negligible on a global scale. In fact the same figure of "only 3%" of flights really have an effect" could easily have cut the other way.
A bit like how wind turbines look huge and numerous but are (as yet and for the foreseeable future) completely negligible on the scale of global wind power.
In fact plenty of times much closer to home, thinking "this very obvious thing must be having an effect" and failing to verify that it actually does has screwed me over repeatedly in everything from bug fixing to installing floorboards.
https://globalnews.ca/news/2934513/empty-skies-after-911-set...
> It is considered that the largest contribution of aviation to climate change comes from contrails. In general, aircraft contrails trap outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere more than they reflect incoming solar radiation, resulting in a net increase in radiative forcing. In 1992, this warming effect was estimated between 3.5 mW/m2 and 17 mW/m2. In 2009, its 2005 value was estimated at 12 mW/m2, based on the reanalysis data, climate models, and radiative transfer codes; with an uncertainty range of 5 to 26 mW/m2, and with a low level of scientific understanding. [...] Contrail cirrus may be air traffic's largest radiative forcing component, larger than all CO2 accumulated from aviation, and could triple from a 2006 baseline to 160–180 mW/m2 by 2050 without intervention.
What I can say is that even in a place with moderate air traffic, you get to see lots of contrails crisscrossing the sky on some days; in places near busy airports I hear that a sizable fraction of all cloud cover is due to lingering contrails.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrail#Impacts_on_climate
Okay, but how does this compare to the forcing of the overall anthropogenic CO2 accumulation?
How could this be observed you might ask? It turns out there was a study done immediately after the grounding of airplanes during the September 11th, 2001 events to take advantage of this unique incidence of effectively halting all air transportation for a few days [0]
0. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/17/5/1520-04...
Some of us also don't have to worry about pulling a muscle reaching around trying to pat ourselves on the back while trying to humble brag. No shame involved either.
My mental model is that a bullet leaving the barrel of a gun has much more penetrative power than that same bullet once it has ricocheted off a concrete wall.
pavel_lishin•1h ago
Nzen•1h ago
[0] https://cpo.noaa.gov/the-unintended-consequences-of-reducing...
[1] https://sites.research.google/gr/contrails/
[2] https://csl.noaa.gov/news/2011/101_0714.html