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Eliminating contrails from flying could be incredibly cheap

https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/eliminating-contrails
35•K2L8M11N2•1h ago

Comments

pavel_lishin•1h ago
I had no idea contrails actually caused that much warming, compared to the exhaust.
Nzen•1h ago
Likewise. In fact, I was under the opposite impression because of the benefit that sulfur enriched shipping exhaust had for our climate [0]. It looks like these clouds are thinner and don't have the same impact as that, though. While I felt that the featured article linked to their favorite site aggressively (four links to contrails.org), it looks like the google site is legitimate [1]. I couldn't find a recent [2] paper on NoAA about contrails, but presumably others have studied it.

[0] https://cpo.noaa.gov/the-unintended-consequences-of-reducing...

[1] https://sites.research.google/gr/contrails/

[2] https://csl.noaa.gov/news/2011/101_0714.html

jagged-chisel•1h ago
How much will it cost in fuel (additional miles) and time (flyers’ lives) to reroute?
steanne•1h ago
> The proposed detours typically result in a 1% shift (and again, this is only for a small percentage of flights). That means increasing fuel use and flight time by around 1%. So if your flight is three hours long, it’s only adding an extra two minutes. For a 10-hour flight, six minutes. This seems socially acceptable to me; most people would barely notice.
SoftTalker•1h ago
Airlines will certainly notice a 1% fuel cost increase however. But, they'll just add it to ticket prices.
mulmen•41m ago
It’s not a 1% increase in fuel costs. It’s 1% of 3% (for 80% mitigation) to 17% (for total mitigation). That’s a 0.03% to 0.17% increase in fuel costs.
andrewflnr•26m ago
They'll all need to do it at once though, or people will just pick the cheaper flight that doesn't go around the contrail-forming region, basically every time.

Of course it's a coordination problem. It probably needs to be a regulation before it will actually happen.

dylan604•1h ago
"Why aren’t we doing more to eliminate contrails?"

I'm just having a hard time groking that contrails are really that impacting. TFA just quotes a bunch of numbers, but does not actually discuss how the numbers were derived. Maybe I've just been around too many people into Chemtrails, but this just reads to me as an offshoot of that type of thinking.

burkaman•1h ago
It links to this post which has a little more technical explanation: https://notebook.contrails.org/comparing-contrails-and-co2/

And also this paper which is a very in-depth technical explanation: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S135223102...

I understand why you're reminded of chemtrails, but it is not crazy or conspiratorial to look at these giant lines in the sky and think "those things must be doing something". You can't then make the leap to "it's intentional and it's a biological weapon to control my mind and I don't need any evidence to believe this", but you can take the next step of looking into decades of research on the topic and deciding if the conclusions make sense to you.

dylan604•1h ago
Where I'm from, contrails are so small and irrelevant compared to the giant cumulonimbus clouds that form in the high heat and humidity. It's like tears in the rain in comparison.
burkaman•32m ago
I don't know what to tell you, they are not irrelevant even if they visually look irrelevant from where you are. Small things can have a big impact, CO2 is only ~0.04% of the atmosphere (compared to the ideal level of ~0.03%) and it's causing us major problems.
pixl97•19m ago
Right there is local climate too that has different effects.

Imagine a large city in an area that is always cloudy versus one in a sunny desert. They are both the same size, but the one in the desert is going to have an absolutely massive amount of evening heat release due to the urban heatsink effect.

grues-dinner•56m ago
> not crazy or conspiratorial to look at these giant lines in the sky and think "those things must be doing something"

I think more accurately it's not crazy to think they might be doing something. I could equally be convinced if researchers crunched the numbers and concluded they might seem big but they're negligible on a global scale. In fact the same figure of "only 3%" of flights really have an effect" could easily have cut the other way.

A bit like how wind turbines look huge and numerous but are (as yet and for the foreseeable future) completely negligible on the scale of global wind power.

In fact plenty of times much closer to home, thinking "this very obvious thing must be having an effect" and failing to verify that it actually does has screwed me over repeatedly in everything from bug fixing to installing floorboards.

burkaman•47m ago
Sure, I meant "must be" in the colloquial sense of "I have a suspicion", not "I am absolutely certain". Like "it's 5pm, must be a lot of traffic on the highway right now". If traffic turned out to be light I would be mildly surprised, update my assumptions and move on with my life.
readthenotes1•1h ago
There's some anecdata from 9/11

https://globalnews.ca/news/2934513/empty-skies-after-911-set...

dylan604•50m ago
The NASA image does make contrails look much larger than say from the ground, but even in the same image true cloud cover is clearly more complete than all of the contrails combined from the same image
DemocracyFTW2•44m ago
Wikipedia[1] states it very clearly:

> It is considered that the largest contribution of aviation to climate change comes from contrails. In general, aircraft contrails trap outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere more than they reflect incoming solar radiation, resulting in a net increase in radiative forcing. In 1992, this warming effect was estimated between 3.5 mW/m2 and 17 mW/m2. In 2009, its 2005 value was estimated at 12 mW/m2, based on the reanalysis data, climate models, and radiative transfer codes; with an uncertainty range of 5 to 26 mW/m2, and with a low level of scientific understanding. [...] Contrail cirrus may be air traffic's largest radiative forcing component, larger than all CO2 accumulated from aviation, and could triple from a 2006 baseline to 160–180 mW/m2 by 2050 without intervention.

What I can say is that even in a place with moderate air traffic, you get to see lots of contrails crisscrossing the sky on some days; in places near busy airports I hear that a sizable fraction of all cloud cover is due to lingering contrails.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrail#Impacts_on_climate

zahlman•20m ago
> Contrail cirrus may be air traffic's largest radiative forcing component, larger than all CO2 accumulated from aviation, and could triple from a 2006 baseline to 160–180 mW/m2 by 2050 without intervention.

Okay, but how does this compare to the forcing of the overall anthropogenic CO2 accumulation?

roadside_picnic•40m ago
Contrails observably suppress the Diurnal Temperature Range (i.e. they make it cooler during the day).

How could this be observed you might ask? It turns out there was a study done immediately after the grounding of airplanes during the September 11th, 2001 events to take advantage of this unique incidence of effectively halting all air transportation for a few days [0]

0. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/17/5/1520-04...

jvanderbot•36m ago
Well some of us are doing things to eliminate contrails ... (Shameless self promotion of my employer)
dylan604•15m ago
Some of us are doing things to eliminate contrails in other ways, like not using air travel. Some of us are hermits that never leave the house. Can't be more green than that. Some of us that do wander out of the house even do so without using a car and avoid that bit of pollution.

Some of us also don't have to worry about pulling a muscle reaching around trying to pat ourselves on the back while trying to humble brag. No shame involved either.

huvarda•1h ago
[flagged]
pfannkuchen•1h ago
It’s funny to me that those people are all essentially a pessimistic flavor of homeopath (in the small quantities can have an effect sense).
phoehne•1h ago
Now they're hiding the chemtrails. It's even worse!
xnx•1h ago
Very briefly mentioned in the article, but Google worked on this years earlier: https://sites.research.google/gr/contrails/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37060347

imgabe•1h ago
If the incoming radiation can pass through, why can't it pass through on the way out?
cvoss•53m ago
The radiation on the way in has a different frequency than on the way out. For example, there is UV included in sunlight. But black body heat at Earth's temperature radiates in infrared. Clouds are very opaque to infrared, and more (though not completely) transparent to UV.
jcims•5m ago
This is the actual answer. The clouds aren't differentially reflecting sunlight into and out of the atmosphere, they are reflecting the black body radiation emitted by the earth.
vamin•52m ago
Because it comes in at a different frequency versus when it goes out. Light, including UV and visible light, hits the ground, then the ground gets warm and radiates in the IR, which can be blocked by clouds.
burkaman•50m ago
Greenhouse gases only interact with specific wavelengths of light. A lot of sunlight comes in as visible or ultraviolet light, mostly passing through those gases. It hits the surface of the Earth and is absorbed and then re-emitted as infrared light, and a lot of that is just the right wavelength for greenhouse gases to interfere. Here's a good article about the physics of this: https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-quantum-mechanics-of-gree...
justonceokay•48m ago
Single particles of radiation coming from the sun have higher energy than single particles radiating from the earth. Even though the total energy entering and leaving earth is at a near equilibrium.

My mental model is that a bullet leaving the barrel of a gun has much more penetrative power than that same bullet once it has ricocheted off a concrete wall.

continuational•45m ago
Basic greenhouse effect: Visible light (and ultraviolet light) comes in relatively unhindered. Gets absorbed by the earth and heats it up. The heat is emitted as infrared radiation. This gets absorbed by CO2 (and equivalents) and reemitted in a random direction. Takes a long time to reach space by chance, so the energy stays in the atmosphere for a while.
squokko•46m ago
I can't imagine that contrails are a significant percentage of cloud cover.
infradig•13m ago
Less than 1% globally, so you're right.
anigbrowl•32m ago
It'd be worth it just to shut the chemtrail nuts up.
blipvert•14m ago
You don’t understand conspiracy loon logic. By the very act of hiding the chemtrails you are demonstrating that you are doing something nefarious.
ryandrake•8m ago
Plus, the invisibility of a thing does not stop the conspiracy loons from building conspiracies around it. 5G RF is invisible, yet still being used by the government to control our brains. For chemtrails, the conspiracy is just going to turn into: "They're spraying invisible chemicals all over us to turn us into communists." There's no end to it.
the__alchemist•17m ago
This is something the military, e.g. fighter jets worry about. The altitudes (in a given airspace) that form contrails are briefed as part of "tactical weather". You try to avoid them if able, because no matter how stealthy you are, you are lit up for all to see if you fly at those altitudes.
DominikPeters•8m ago
Given that the warming impacts of contrails are short-lived (roughly a day), I think it is a good idea to do research now on the weather forecasting needed to avoid producing contrails. But I don't really see a reason to actually start avoiding them now, with the associated costs in terms of fuel, CO2 emissions, and time. We can start avoiding them in a few decades when it might have become urgent to have cooling.
SyzygyRhythm•5m ago
The article mentions that some flights produce a net cooling effect. I wonder if it could be cost effective to divert flights toward contrail formation when it's predicted that they'll produce cooling (I also wonder what the actual circumstances are when they produce cooling--low surface temperatures, maybe?).

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