Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45516265

Yet evidence is:

- CAPE is high - NVIDIA has a very large market cap - enormous capital investment in AI and relatively few companies

I assume also a chorus of “AI actually doesn’t make you more productive!” And “AI capex and opex vastly outweighs realized profits!”

Seems a little less than “clearly”.

All of these are very much RISK factors, yet you need to assume the market is being irrational and assume that AI is NOT going to have the impact the market thinks it will. Personally for me I don’t understand: pretty clear trend in capabilities without a clear and insurmountable roadblock, so I totally get the “I think it’s a bubble” argument, it’s just that I think people underestimate what’s to come

Or, maybe the economics can't be made to pencil out, and AI is abandoned (again).

> The impossibility lies in knowing the speed of adoption, and which lumps of capital will earn extraordinary returns and which will end up getting torched.

Almost certainly all of it will end up getting torched.