If cryptocurrency is any frame of reference, AI hype will die down once an even more lucrative digital gimmick is invented. I don't know if it will "burst" besides all the wildly overvalued value-add corps like OpenAI and Xai. Unless something changes, they're dead-in-the-water even now.

Keep in mind, even the rapid abandonment of the cryptocurrency market didn't kill Nvidia. I don't think things will ever go back to normal for people who desire a 2012-esque tech outlook again.

Sry don't have expertise to answer your question but it got be wondering if there is question about this on polymarket.

There was an interview on Fortune where a Wall Street executive believes it probably won't happen for at least 9 months, but will likely happen within the next 24.

https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/ai-bubble-cisco-moment-dotcom...

It won't die. AI is to stay here. All the companies that are building the infrasturcture and the ones that are giving the APIs like Anthropic and OpenAI won't die probably because the world needs them right now. The ones to die would be the startups who are using AI to build something.

That's like trying to time the market.

The way I see it, world has too many GPUs, and they're too expensive, and it doesn't make sense by any measure.

It started with crypto, which inflated the value GPUs actually have. Now, LLMs are doing that. It's still the same thing, and I think it will transform again.

In a similar post in the past (3mo ago) I mentioned that this (ultra fancy GPUs) either evolves towards AR (augmented reality) or war (cyberwarfare), which are the most obvious next steps for "something-that-uses-fancy-GPUs".

Let's see some recent developments:

Apple dropping their AR glasses. This points towards a disinterest in augmented reality. It seems that's not a viable way to scale silicon supply chains.

Sora stays right in the middle of these two possibilities, being a proto-holodeck of some sorts ("hey, help create a new simulated world with you in the middle"), and also possibly a cyberwarfare platform ("hey, look, we could produce misinformation in levels previously unseen!").

It could be that these are not exactly organic market bubbles, but instead, stealthy cyberwarfare spending, dating back to the crypto days (possibly earlier!).

A burst, in this scenario, is just a way of moving money to these more shady goals without being too obvious about it.

In this scenario, the burst is also somehow a controlled burst. It means performance numbers are likely to be not that predictive of what happens.

I could also be wrong, but I don't think I am (it all circles back to silicon and geopolitical movements).

A bit its like asking when mankind will go burst, looking like it is destroying our environment like there is no end, but hoping that something new magically will fix everything before that point.

Will an AI saving killer app, technology or whatever happens before the bubble burst, or no? It might, a lot of companies with a lot of talented people and deep pockets are working on that, as their near term existence depend on it. But also you can hit rock bottom before finish inventing the parachutes.