Given that it's now October of 2025 I must ask, why there are no signs of such revolutionary increase in productivity?
Given that it's now October of 2025 I must ask, why there are no signs of such revolutionary increase in productivity?
Has there been any extraordinary evidence?
Everyone knows why that's the case: because claims were never backed by anything but people claiming this in whose interest it was for others to buy into it.
There might even be a case of shareholder fraud there for any public official, but obviously, they'll just claim they honestly believed that.
pera•2h ago
For example, back in March Dario Amodei, the CEO and cofounder of Anthropic, said:
> I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code
Other similar claims:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/23/tech/google-study-90-perc...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/satya-nadella-says-as-much-a...
Some of these AI predictions seem quite unlikely too, for example AI 2027:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43571851
> By late 2029, existing SEZs have grown overcrowded with robots and factories, so more zones are created all around the world (early investors are now trillionaires, so this is not a hard sell). Armies of drones pour out of the SEZs, accelerating manufacturing on the critical path to space exploration.
> The new decade dawns with Consensus-1’s robot servitors spreading throughout the solar system. By 2035, trillions of tons of planetary material have been launched into space and turned into rings of satellites orbiting the sun.32 The surface of the Earth has been reshaped into Agent-4’s version of utopia
JohnFen•2h ago
> Several PhD-level reasoning models have been released since September of 2024
This is not true. What's true is that several models have been released that the companies have claimed to be "PhD-level" (whatever that means), but so far none of them have actually demonstrated such a trait outside of very narrow and contrived use cases.
Ekaros•2h ago
DaveZale•2h ago