Ask HN: Will large scale cross-holdings in US stocks lead to a market crash?
6•roschdal•3mo ago
Comments
ggm•3mo ago
At best (worst?) I would say it will be a contributing factor to the speed and range of fall dependent on the leverage and the linkage.
The fundamental here is going to be overinflated expectations. I am by inclination a believer in the longterm 7% rate of profit, it's historically sustained, and if people are seeing double or triple this in tech stocks and orders of magnitude higher in crypto and derived products i don't personally see that as indicating a change, as much as showcasing the over valuation in the markets.
Value is about humans. Not leveraged derived products. If there's a big enough collapse in purchasing power or a other covid scale economic collapse, people's inability to buy things for both supply side and cost side reasons is going to be bad.
The reduction in Listed Property Asset value has to come too. That, and a massive correction in the cost of housing for most of the developed world outside the USA. Australia property to income ratios are insanely bad.
At some point, we'll be off an addiction to fossil fuels and a lot of established capital will suffer. The middle east is diversifying their way out. Russia isn't and nor is Trumpist America. China is. The future belongs to China in many ways. China and India, and the growth of Middle classes in Africa.
notmyjob•3mo ago
China and India are funding Putin’s slaughter of innocent Ukrainians. If that’s the future then I’ll stand athwart it yelling “stop!”
ggm•3mo ago
The fundamental here is going to be overinflated expectations. I am by inclination a believer in the longterm 7% rate of profit, it's historically sustained, and if people are seeing double or triple this in tech stocks and orders of magnitude higher in crypto and derived products i don't personally see that as indicating a change, as much as showcasing the over valuation in the markets.
Value is about humans. Not leveraged derived products. If there's a big enough collapse in purchasing power or a other covid scale economic collapse, people's inability to buy things for both supply side and cost side reasons is going to be bad.
The reduction in Listed Property Asset value has to come too. That, and a massive correction in the cost of housing for most of the developed world outside the USA. Australia property to income ratios are insanely bad.
At some point, we'll be off an addiction to fossil fuels and a lot of established capital will suffer. The middle east is diversifying their way out. Russia isn't and nor is Trumpist America. China is. The future belongs to China in many ways. China and India, and the growth of Middle classes in Africa.
notmyjob•3mo ago