Most people watch unemployment to gauge the economy. The problem is, by the time jobs fall, the recession has already begun.
This post looks at the smaller part of the economy that turns first: residential construction and durable goods and why it’s one of the best early warning systems we have. I also built a simple ML model to track it while the BLS is offline. That will be the second article.
truelson•2h ago
This post looks at the smaller part of the economy that turns first: residential construction and durable goods and why it’s one of the best early warning systems we have. I also built a simple ML model to track it while the BLS is offline. That will be the second article.