It is good that global sources of energy are becoming more and more renewables but problem is that demand for energy is also increasing so fossil will stay.
Relative numbers for renewables are good - what matters are absolute numbers for fossil.
Arnt•3mo ago
I'm an eco-head and not worried.
Deployment of new solar etc. is doubling very roughly every year, worldwide. In the year that solar++ deployment was 0.1% of total power use, total energy use only needed to grow by 0.11% in order for fossil to grow. In the next doubling cycle the numbers were 0.2% and 0.21%, then 0.4% and 0.41%, then 0.8% and 0.81%.
Still trivial, but then we got to then 1.6% and 1.61%, and around this time the mine operators' forecasts would look uncertain. Growth is ≥1.61% most years, but not every, and by now some forecast slides would say things like "regenerative power now took 50% of the market growth, up from 25% last year" if the market growth was about 3%.
We're now in a doubling after that: 3.2% and 3.21%, and 3.21% growth not something that happens every year, so the miners' forecast will say "regenerative power takes most of the market growth and is still increasing".
In the next doubling cycle it's 6.4% and 6.41%, and AFAICT we've never had ≥6.41% growth for any length of time. If we do have that in the coming months, it's only a year or so until we each 12.8% and 12.81%, etc, and who cares about that single year?
timeon•3mo ago
Relative numbers for renewables are good - what matters are absolute numbers for fossil.
Arnt•3mo ago
Deployment of new solar etc. is doubling very roughly every year, worldwide. In the year that solar++ deployment was 0.1% of total power use, total energy use only needed to grow by 0.11% in order for fossil to grow. In the next doubling cycle the numbers were 0.2% and 0.21%, then 0.4% and 0.41%, then 0.8% and 0.81%.
Still trivial, but then we got to then 1.6% and 1.61%, and around this time the mine operators' forecasts would look uncertain. Growth is ≥1.61% most years, but not every, and by now some forecast slides would say things like "regenerative power now took 50% of the market growth, up from 25% last year" if the market growth was about 3%.
We're now in a doubling after that: 3.2% and 3.21%, and 3.21% growth not something that happens every year, so the miners' forecast will say "regenerative power takes most of the market growth and is still increasing".
In the next doubling cycle it's 6.4% and 6.41%, and AFAICT we've never had ≥6.41% growth for any length of time. If we do have that in the coming months, it's only a year or so until we each 12.8% and 12.81%, etc, and who cares about that single year?