Now that OpenAI is starting to talk about ads and allowing "erotic" content, I feel more comfortable in my prediction that not only have OpenAI never turned a profit, they never will. They will be consumed by Microsoft or crash the market so hard it's not even funny. The technology will survive, and it will be useful, but OpenAI as a company is done.
Three generations of Twitter leadership couldn’t make ads on that platform profitable and that exposes far more useful user specific information than ChatGPT.
The hubris is incredible.
More and more OpenAI is drawing parallels to the Danish scandal of IT Factory. Self-proclaimed world leading innovation and technology in the front, financial sorcery in the back.
Not sure if increased availability of LLM porn or the gradual erosion of LLMs with ads and sponsored content would be the greater evil on a societal level. Neither is particularly great. But they will certainly drive shareholder value
There's a mechanism here similar to a Laffer Curve: Charge too much, they lose; charge too little, they lose. OAI needs to strike a delicate balance vs. surging low-cost competition.
So the math is probably harder than it seems.
If Microsoft were just Windows, Teams, Azure, Bing and whatever it is, Microsoft would actually feel like a competitor for firms like Canonical or Red Hat or SUSE which happens to be big but nothing special relative to the others, whereas it now, with with this very public service feels like a behemoth.
Although I don’t particularly like their cloud services they are undeniably an important part of Microsoft’s business. (And they also own a large chunk of the gaming industry nowadays).
They’re shuttering half their studios, cancelling half their games, and firing game devs by the thousands as they hand halo over to PlayStation lol. You’re technically right but they clearly aren’t taking that part of their business seriously anymore. IIRC Gamepass has plateaued on subscribers for years now even prior to their very aggressive price hikes over the last 18 months.
I saw an article the other day that said Microsoft is telling developers they have to have a 30% return on their games, which is almost double the industry standard. That’s just absurd.
Edit: worth mentioning that you have people openly speculating at this point that they might not even make another Xbox. I’m not quite in that camp, but I also think it is a distinct possibility given the back slide they are clearly in right own when it comes to gaming. Fun fact: It’s been 4 console cycles, almost 25 years, since we saw a major player drop out.
Profit is what you have when you have no confidence in how to reinvest what you earn already.
Megacorps control so much of them that the financial side has so little volatility.
https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter3/transportat...
Expect lots of hand wavy “non-GAAP” numbers pushed by leadership trying to gloss over their failed AI investments.
That’s earnings call speak for “If you ignore the pile of your money we lost with bad AI investment decisions, we’ve had a good quarter. Moving on…”
"They just write it off."
"Write it off what?"
"Jerry, all these big companies, they write off everything."
Same reason why seemingly every CEO on the planet is making hand wavy statements about how their company is leading with AI and it will revolutionize their industry, and yet almost nobody is willing to break out this amazing stuff in their P&L. Funny how that works.
"How Microsoft has managed to avoid disclosing such basic details is baffling. The company in its financial reports identifies OpenAl as an equity-method investment. That means OpenAl, by definition, is a related party of Microsoft under the accounting rules. Microsoft, however, doesn't identify OpenAl in its financial reports as a related party, and doesn't say anything about its transactions with OpenAl in its related-party disclosures."
That's why some analysts ignore most company-provided metrics and just focus on cash-flow. You need inside and outside of the house fudgers to mess with that metric.
Both are true in many cases. But to the extent companies are making major investments that are strategically correct but won’t make money for years, it’s still the right move to hide stuff in financial statements.
Markets don’t reward long term investments. Everything has to be short term, and if it’s not paying off instantly, short term investors get no value and want it stopped.
Net result: lots of PR about AI, but almost every company is incentivized to downplay it financially.
IlikeKitties•1h ago
irl_zebra•1h ago