Ask HN: Is the stock market in a bubble? What would make it pop?

4•SilverElfin•2h ago

I’ve been seeing the market climb to ever higher highs, even as everything else like gold is at an all time high. I’ve also seen people talk about the kind of earnings companies eventually need to justify the AI boom. It feels very bubbly but the market seems to be optimistic.

Is this a bubble? What sort of things might trigger it to pop - would disappointing earnings be enough or would it take larger events? It seems like in the short term demand for AI may keep revenues growing but does that mean the bubble may only be popped in a few years?

Comments

PaulHoule•2h ago

See https://www.dwassetmgmt.com/blog/markets-can-remain-irration...

SilverElfin•2h ago

I’ve seen that quote before. But I wonder what sustains or pops the bubble. Is it really just group think and random movement that can’t be analyzed? Or is it more like needing negative news of a certain “size” or “type” for people to suddenly switch to valuations based on fundamentals?

odele3•1h ago

Same dynamics that makes Trump wake up everyday, put on his suit and tie. I mean why does he need too? Everyone's identity is wrapped up in stories they tell themselves. If the story breaks the identity breaks.

verdverm•2h ago

If the ad bubble implodes, we're in for a a lot of pain. It's much bigger than the Ai bubble

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