How do we change incentives to be long-term aligned rather than counter-productive, anxious short-termism?
Solving climate change is really really hard. Solving mass media being biased towards alarmism and allergic to nuance, decision-makers in politics and at corporations favoring short-term thinking? Hard enough to make solving climate change look easy.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116327/ai-energ...
>Given the direction AI is headed—more personalized, able to reason and solve complex problems on our behalf, and everywhere we look—it’s likely that our AI footprint today is the smallest it will ever be. According to new projections published by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in December, by 2028 more than half of the electricity going to data centers will be used for AI. At that point, AI alone could consume as much electricity annually as 22% of all US households.
Climate change is the COVID of global natural disasters. Is it worth fighting? Yes. Can you do absolutely nothing about it and get away with it? Also yes. Cue the lackluster efforts.
The "really bad" +4C scenarios still have a death toll larger than that of WW2 - but spread out in time and space, across many decades and many countries. And the most vulnerable countries? The countries that are already on the brink. Climate change is not the "great equalizer" people want it to be.
In those "bad" scenarios, the main source of lethality for climate change is: agricultural failures, leading to local shortages and global price spikes, leading to famine. First world countries can eat a sharp +40% spike in food prices, at the cost of quality of life - but there are numerous countries where such a spike would have a death toll attached to it.
Like addressing the exponential growth of income inequality? Unsurprisingly not mentioned at all. Might mean that billionaires have to give up their carbon credit purchases and then how could they be dismissive about their own emissions?
Bill is one of the better ones with his personal capital allocation. He could've just tried to create the fastest sailboat racing team or something. But I find it extremely difficult to take the wealthy seriously when they speak about carbon emissions and climate change. It’s like hearing an arsonist lecture on fire safety.
> Thirty years ago, when I was running Microsoft, I wrote a long memo to employees about a major strategic pivot we had to make: embracing the internet in every product we made.
Is this the one that lead to the term "embrace, extend, extinguish"?
I hope he's right. I'm glad he's doing this advocacy. By doing so he's fighting two popular opinions, first that climate change is a hoax, and second, that climate change must be addressed even if it means sacrificing the well-being of the global poor. That said, I have grave concerns that Gates is simply wrong, that we cannot invent our way out of both climate change and the suffering of the global poor. His many remarkable mentions of AI do not, in my opinion, lend strength to his argument, nor does his mention of "almost commercialized" fusion. The former being a gimmick, the latter being forever 30 years away. If our hopes rest on tech like that, then we must prepare to be devastated and pick one side of the zero-sum.
I’m also not sure that anyone anywhere earnestly believes that climate change is an extinction level event that’ll render the entire planet unliveable. Certainly not the people at COP.
The piece seems unnecessarily broadly combative and contrarian.
A lot of people do believe that, unfortunately. Decades worth of the most alarmist coverage possible sure didn't help the public awareness.
Now, people at COP? Hopefully not. But COP doesn't end with the people at COP. And there are a lot of people in this very thread whose reaction to "climate change cannot cause extinction of humankind" is shock and disbelief.
- we are nearing or at +1.5C above pre-industrial baseline
- human carbon burning CO2 emissions are at a max and likely long plateau
- mean temp is rising by around +0.3C per decade
- we will be nearing +2.0C in around 15 years, 2040 give or take
- warming is mainly caused by us humans burning carbon, emitting CO2 and some CH4
- if we reach net-zero, we will be at peak CO2 and thus peak heat, for a long while
In addition, the only economically viable way to bring down the temp seems to be deliberate pollution by emitting sulphur or other particles aka Solar Radiation Management to brighten clouds, reduce heat absorption by the ocean. Volcanoes and shipping fuels have essentially proven that this brings down the temperature, in the short term.
We geo-engineered our way into this hot mess, and we will need to geo-engineer our way out of it.
If the temp reaches +2.5 or +3C .. I think that means quite a lot of crop failure, forced migration, geopolitical tension, lack of stable food supply.. and death to a large number of humans seems to follow logically from that.
So, now Ill look at the article to see if any of these tough truths were mentioned .. sorta-kinda no-so-much, it seems like he thinks things are not that urgent. ?!?
The other issue is that while he might be right, the worst and biggest consequences of being wrong will not affect Bill. Or, frankly, anyone reading this comment.
It’s such a complicated problem for us humans because we often struggle to conceptualize beyond our own tribes, let alone humans who won’t exist for decades.
But the problem is that IF climate scientists are right - and other than a few cheery cherry picked stats, Bill has no evidence saying otherwise - then the longer we do nothing the bigger the impact.
Will humanity die? Probably not. But will it drastically affect QoL for nearly all humans on the planet save the 1%? Probably.
jader201•1h ago
Interesting and different perspective vs. what many others often say (but that’s one of the points he’s making).
I feel a lot of climate articles — and the comments attached to their HN threads — tend to favor more of the doomsday message he’s arguing against here.
hmahonen•1h ago
It is very likely that the time span for an individual is long enough that the change does not matter. Still the future will arrive and most likely sooner than we thought.
ares623•1h ago
supriyo-biswas•1h ago
The uncharitable interpretation being that he's trying to toe the line for the current US administration, while still signaling that he's part of the communities that he typically inhabits as part of his charity work.
jshen•1h ago
Retric•1h ago
Climate change could do a lot of damage it’s just not extinction level damage. Even large scale nuclear war based on current stockpiles isn’t going to result in extinction.
jshen•1h ago
Retric•1h ago
There’s levels of societal collapse, mass migration can destroy the existing social fabric without necessarily being that terrible. Fertility rates being so low means developed countries will likely want large numbers of immigrants.
At the other end stopping all CO2 production tomorrow would result in severe consequences. We can’t transport food to cities without burning fossil fuels. Obviously that doesn’t mean every current use case is worthwhile, but we can’t ignore the short term here.
The good news is we’re actually making a lot of progress on climate change. The electric grid being ~90% very low carbon emissions by 2050 is a realistic goal and would avoid the worst predictions.
jshen•1h ago
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...
ACCount37•1h ago
That's not a reason to take such a scenario seriously.
kennywinker•1h ago
jshen•1h ago
grebc•1h ago
johngossman•21m ago
grebc•1m ago
WW2 with it’s restrictions & rationing, and almost all civilian economy/effort being redirected to the military is I think what a lot of people are wanting in my honest opinion.
Animats•1h ago
For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. The US may have to give up on Miami and New Orleans, and build seawalls for New York. Some crops may have to be grown further north. Some irrigation systems will need upgrades. More power will be needed for air conditioning. Those will not seriously damage a society. After all, right now the biggest problem in American agriculture is where to put all the excess soy and corn.
Countries in Asia with heavily populated big river delta areas of shallow slope are very vulnerable to small rises in sea level, because the coast moves a long way inland. China and Vietnam can probably engineer their way out of those problems.
Some countries near the equator with political instability are in big trouble.[1] Too poor and too disorganized to upgrade water and agriculture systems.
[1] https://www.rescue.org/article/10-countries-risk-climate-dis...
energy123•1h ago
Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.
fulafel•1h ago
ares623•1h ago
kennywinker•1h ago
It is very hard to gauge what he actually believes will happen based on these words