I predict that within the next decade the United States will cede control of Taiwan, either implicitly or explicitly, to the PRC, which is Zvi’s nightmare scenario:
> The biggest mistake America could make would be to effectively give up Taiwan, which would be catastrophic on many levels including that Taiwan contains TSMC. I am assuming we are not so foolish as to seriously consider doing this, still I note it.
I hypothesize (with no direct evidence) that the US is no longer sufficiently in advance of China in military capacity to make holding Taiwan with “hard power” feasible, even in the short term.
The US over the past decade decided to take almost all of its “soft power” behind the proverbial shed and burn it.
So whither the power to maintain Taiwan as a strategic ally? I would prefer it if the nightmare scenario did not come to pass, but no force seems adequate to stop it. I believe it’s likely that whoever is actually running foreign policy (“plenary—“ Miller? who knows) for the Trump administration is considering it.
TimorousBestie•3mo ago
> The biggest mistake America could make would be to effectively give up Taiwan, which would be catastrophic on many levels including that Taiwan contains TSMC. I am assuming we are not so foolish as to seriously consider doing this, still I note it.
I hypothesize (with no direct evidence) that the US is no longer sufficiently in advance of China in military capacity to make holding Taiwan with “hard power” feasible, even in the short term.
The US over the past decade decided to take almost all of its “soft power” behind the proverbial shed and burn it.
So whither the power to maintain Taiwan as a strategic ally? I would prefer it if the nightmare scenario did not come to pass, but no force seems adequate to stop it. I believe it’s likely that whoever is actually running foreign policy (“plenary—“ Miller? who knows) for the Trump administration is considering it.