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3•savrajsingh•1h ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

I just trained a physics-based earthquake forecasting model on a $1000 GPU

15•ArchitectAI•3mo ago
So I've been working on this seismic intelligence system (GSIN) and I think I accidentally made data centers kind of obsolete for this type of work. Let me explain what happened. The Problem: Earthquake forecasting sucks. The standard models are all statistical bullshit from the 80s. They don't understand physics, they just pattern match on historical data. And the few ML attempts that exist? They need massive compute clusters or AWS bills that would bankrupt a small country. I'm talking researchers spending $50k on cloud GPUs to train models that still don't work that well. Universities need approval from like 5 committees to get cluster time. It's gatekept as hell. What I Built: I took 728,442 seismic events from USGS and built a 3D neural network that actually understands how stress propagates through rock. Not just pattern matching - it learns the actual physics of how earthquakes trigger other earthquakes. The architecture is a 3D U-Net that takes earthquake sequences and outputs probability grids showing where aftershocks are likely. It's trained on real data spanning decades of global seismic activity. Here's the crazy part: The entire training pipeline runs on a single RTX 5080. $1000 GPU. Not a cluster. Not AWS. Just one consumer card.

Pre-loads all 15GB of training data into RAM at startup Zero disk reads during training (that's the bottleneck everyone hits) Uses only 0.2GB of VRAM somehow Trains 40 epochs in under 3 hours Best validation Brier score: 0.0175

For context, traditional seismic models get Brier scores around 0.05-0.15. Lower is better.

Comments

Grosvenor•3mo ago
This is interesting. Can you share the model/github?
qmarchi•3mo ago
Given the swath of sensors that Japan has, and the long history of a lot of them. I do wonder what the result of training off their datasets would be.
Woberto•3mo ago
So when/where is the next big one coming?
highd•3mo ago
How are you doing your train/test split?
codemusings•3mo ago
Right. Because compute power and/or a physics based model is the limiting factor for accurately predicting when a seismic event happens. Training on historic data is hardly the problem that need's solving.

It's the leading indicators that are actually measurable that are missing. You know the ones that allow for evacuations and other protective measures.

promptfluid•3mo ago
This is wild — optimizing I/O and memory flow instead of brute-forcing with clusters is exactly the kind of rethink AI infrastructure needs. You basically inverted the whole scaling narrative. Curious if the zero disk reads trick could generalize to other physics-heavy domains (fluid sims, EM propagation, etc.) or if it depends on the dataset’s uniformity. Either way, killer proof that smarter beats bigger.
NunoSempere•2mo ago
How do I get access to this?