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Will Future Generations Think We're Gross?

https://chillphysicsenjoyer.substack.com/p/will-future-generations-think-were
1•crescit_eundo•1m ago•0 comments

Kernel Key Retention Service

https://www.kernel.org/doc/html/latest/security/keys/core.html
1•networked•1m ago•0 comments

State Department will delete Xitter posts from before Trump returned to office

https://www.npr.org/2026/02/07/nx-s1-5704785/state-department-trump-posts-x
1•righthand•4m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Verifiable server roundtrip demo for a decision interruption system

https://github.com/veeduzyl-hue/decision-assistant-roundtrip-demo
1•veeduzyl•5m ago•0 comments

Impl Rust – Avro IDL Tool in Rust via Antlr

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmKvw73V394
1•todsacerdoti•6m ago•0 comments

Stories from 25 Years of Software Development

https://susam.net/twenty-five-years-of-computing.html
2•vinhnx•6m ago•0 comments

minikeyvalue

https://github.com/commaai/minikeyvalue/tree/prod
3•tosh•11m ago•0 comments

Neomacs: GPU-accelerated Emacs with inline video, WebKit, and terminal via wgpu

https://github.com/eval-exec/neomacs
1•evalexec•16m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Moli P2P – An ephemeral, serverless image gallery (Rust and WebRTC)

https://moli-green.is/
2•ShinyaKoyano•20m ago•1 comments

How I grow my X presence?

https://www.reddit.com/r/GrowthHacking/s/UEc8pAl61b
2•m00dy•21m ago•0 comments

What's the cost of the most expensive Super Bowl ad slot?

https://ballparkguess.com/?id=5b98b1d3-5887-47b9-8a92-43be2ced674b
1•bkls•22m ago•0 comments

What if you just did a startup instead?

https://alexaraki.substack.com/p/what-if-you-just-did-a-startup
3•okaywriting•29m ago•0 comments

Hacking up your own shell completion (2020)

https://www.feltrac.co/environment/2020/01/18/build-your-own-shell-completion.html
2•todsacerdoti•32m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Gorse 0.5 – Open-source recommender system with visual workflow editor

https://github.com/gorse-io/gorse
1•zhenghaoz•32m ago•0 comments

GLM-OCR: Accurate × Fast × Comprehensive

https://github.com/zai-org/GLM-OCR
1•ms7892•33m ago•0 comments

Local Agent Bench: Test 11 small LLMs on tool-calling judgment, on CPU, no GPU

https://github.com/MikeVeerman/tool-calling-benchmark
1•MikeVeerman•34m ago•0 comments

Show HN: AboutMyProject – A public log for developer proof-of-work

https://aboutmyproject.com/
1•Raiplus•34m ago•0 comments

Expertise, AI and Work of Future [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsxWl9iT1XU
1•indiantinker•35m ago•0 comments

So Long to Cheap Books You Could Fit in Your Pocket

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/books/mass-market-paperback-books.html
3•pseudolus•35m ago•1 comments

PID Controller

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional%E2%80%93integral%E2%80%93derivative_controller
1•tosh•39m ago•0 comments

SpaceX Rocket Generates 100GW of Power, or 20% of US Electricity

https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/2019932764515234159
2•bkls•40m ago•0 comments

Kubernetes MCP Server

https://github.com/yindia/rootcause
1•yindia•41m ago•0 comments

I Built a Movie Recommendation Agent to Solve Movie Nights with My Wife

https://rokn.io/posts/building-movie-recommendation-agent
4•roknovosel•41m ago•0 comments

What were the first animals? The fierce sponge–jelly battle that just won't end

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00238-z
2•beardyw•49m ago•0 comments

Sidestepping Evaluation Awareness and Anticipating Misalignment

https://alignment.openai.com/prod-evals/
1•taubek•49m ago•0 comments

OldMapsOnline

https://www.oldmapsonline.org/en
2•surprisetalk•52m ago•0 comments

What It's Like to Be a Worm

https://www.asimov.press/p/sentience
2•surprisetalk•52m ago•0 comments

Don't go to physics grad school and other cautionary tales

https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2025/12/19/dont-go-to-physics-grad-school-and-other-cautionary...
2•surprisetalk•52m ago•0 comments

Lawyer sets new standard for abuse of AI; judge tosses case

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/02/randomly-quoting-ray-bradbury-did-not-save-lawyer-fro...
5•pseudolus•52m ago•0 comments

AI anxiety batters software execs, costing them combined $62B: report

https://nypost.com/2026/02/04/business/ai-anxiety-batters-software-execs-costing-them-62b-report/
1•1vuio0pswjnm7•52m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

Show HN: DeepShot – NBA game predictor with 70% accuracy using ML and stats

https://github.com/saccofrancesco/deepshot
3•Fr4ncio•3mo ago
I built DeepShot, a machine learning model that predicts NBA games using rolling statistics, historical performance, and recent momentum — all visualized in a clean, interactive web app. Unlike simple averages or betting odds, DeepShot uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) to capture recent form and momentum, highlighting the key statistical differences between teams so you can see why the model favors one side. It’s powered by Python, XGBoost, Pandas, Scikit-learn, and NiceGUI, runs locally on any OS, and relies only on free, public data from Basketball Reference. If you’re into sports analytics, machine learning, or just curious whether an algorithm can outsmart Vegas, check it out and let me know what you think: https://github.com/saccofrancesco/deepshot

Comments

zahlman•3mo ago
> Unlike simple averages or betting odds, DeepShot uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) to capture recent form and momentum

This is a lot of buzzwords to describe what I'm pretty sure is either very standard analysis technique in the field, or else known to be problematic for some reason or other.

> highlighting the key statistical differences between teams so you can see why the model favors one side

This is effectively just debug output and similarly doesn't need to be puffed up like that.

> or just curious whether an algorithm can outsmart Vegas

If it could, why are you here advertising the project rather than doing so yourself?

Fr4ncio•3mo ago
Hey, thanks for the comment — I totally get where you’re coming from. Let me clarify a bit what Deepshot actually tries to do and why I built it. The project isn’t meant to “beat Vegas” or make betting calls — it’s an analytical tool that explores whether a model can numerically describe which team is favored to win based purely on data. The EWMA part isn’t buzzword fluff: it’s a deliberate choice. Through a lot of testing, I found that using an exponentially weighted window of 25 games gave the most stable signal, minimizing error between predicted and actual outcomes. In practice, it captures a team’s momentum — how it’s been performing recently — better than simple averages or rolling means. Highlighting the key statistical differences (say, +5% in rebounding or turnover rate) isn’t “puffing up debug output”; it’s a way to help visualize why the model leans toward one side. The NBA is an extremely competitive environment, and even small statistical gaps can meaningfully shift game outcomes — that’s what I wanted to surface. As for the project itself — I’m not trying to sell it or claim it beats bookmakers. I’m sharing it because I’m 20, still learning, and I wanted to build something unique and interactive, not just another command-line model spitting numbers. Deepshot’s goal is to make basketball data exploration fun, transparent, and open to improvement by others who might want to contribute ideas or tweaks. In short — it’s not about betting or buzzwords, it’s about learning, experimenting, and hopefully getting feedback from people who care about sports analytics as much as I do.
zahlman•2mo ago
Okay, I understand the goal then. I think having things like "70% accuracy" in the headline might be misleading (towards my original interpretation) in that case. I can absolutely believe that the favourites in sports events typically have about that size of advantage on average, though.