which has more info and did the original work. suggest swapping link for this post. would also pay some money to never see this awful site again on HN. by the time you scroll to paragraph 3 the screen is 50% filled with shoe ads and other random shit
The AI bubble being the only thing holding up aggregate economic numbers is widely acknowledged, and this is just one of many manifestations of that.
> intertwined with two wars, one genocide,
There are more than two wars and one genocide happening now, so that's a really weird insertion.
(where one-on-one means one worker's relationship to a chain of command, a department for compensation & benefits, ownership, board, and a network of investors & advisors coordinating on compensation, hiring practices, regulatory politics at a national level)
– Henry Ford, Ford Motor Company
Its what an economic slowdown outside of AI gets us, mostly, but yes, unbridled capitalism (with, among other things, neither unionization in the industry under consideration nor strong public protection of labor rights) magnifies that (it also, to be fair, magnifies the upswing in employment on the upward side of the business cycle, but, it also magnifies the adverse consequences of unemployment on either side.)
I think we are at the point where tech companies have tested layoffs from unimaginable to on a regular basis and are willing to lay off more employees for the pursuit of this fantasy called "AGI" which actually means a 10% increase in mass global unemployment.
It doesn't matter if you are in tech, what matters is that your (tech) job is no longer safe.
Or is this more about senior people not being able to find ~100k a year jobs as easily?
Certainly a trailer home in a lot of places but then not clear how easily you'll get that $50K/yr job.
The value of money and especially the dollar is getting printed away to worthlessness.
In any case, my impression is that juniors are being hit the hardest. They're the easiest to offshore and the easiest to justify as being replaceable by AI (regardless of how true that actually is).
Whether this is sustainable remains to be seen, there was a big outsourcing trend back in ~2004 in the tech industry here that ended up being somewhat short-lived as many companies realized those efforts were costing them more than they were saving them beyond the short term. Whether or not this time is different with the added AI component, I have no idea. I wouldn't bet on it in either direction.
Its not great out there for senior developers either, but on the senior side its more of a freeze (try not to lose your job because the next one may be very hard to find) whereas on the junior side its more of a clear contraction (keeping your job will be much harder, finding a new one harder still).
It used to be true, but companies seem deadset on demoralizing their workforce as much as possible.
They've raised prices as much as consumers will bear.
We're getting near the physical limits of how efficient things can get in many sectors.
If P/Es are to remain this high (and they have to for the rich to remain this rich), the profits must continue to grow far in excess of the total economy.
The only orange left to squeeze is labor costs.
randycupertino•1h ago
If it helps anyone who is looking- when I was laid off 4 years ago, I took a seasonal Oct-Jan delivery job with UPS just to get out of the house, get some income and keep busy. They call them PWDs and it's $46 an hour, you use your own car and do package delivery. Your car and clothes get DISGUSTING - turns out packages are completely filthy- definitely put a tarp down - and you will be dog tired at the end of the day, I was doing 200-285 packages per shift- but it was good income and kept me busy. Also they offered to convert me to full-time warehouse after the holiday season but by then I had placed back into an industry job.
I think they call them SSDs now but same thing: https://www.jobs-ups.com/us/en/seasonal-support-driver
betaby•1h ago
supportengineer•1h ago
ghaff•1h ago
I'd add that I know a fair number of people who are not necessarily in coastal cities but are adjacent to them that have been exiting. They're mostly somewhat older and pretty comfortable or just have other things going on in their lives. The reality for some is that this isn't a terrible time to exit if you're not really loving things any longer and maybe have some other stuff you'd like to work on--or just retire.
ghaff•1h ago
And, although the Bay Area is a bit of an outlier because geography, there are plenty of coastal cities where you can get to, not inexpensive by the standards of some regions, but not "insane" unless you absolutely feel you need to live in the central city areas.
Xenoamorphous•1h ago
ghaff•1h ago
Of course, modern condos will likely be cheaper but now you're paying HOA fees each month.
silisili•1h ago
Is the pay location dependent or has it just gone way down? That link shows three near me, but only paying a rather paltry $23/hr.
That's not much more than something like Walmart, which is likely a much less strenuous job with way less wear and tear on your vehicle(and body).
philk10•1h ago
RealityVoid•1h ago
Honestly, if I were hit by lack of work, I would see how much runway savings I have and then try to either take some time off, to spend with family, do some low-budget traveling, learn new professional skills I wanted to learn, try to change the niche I work in and/or contribute to some open source project.
randycupertino•28m ago
Also, doing the deliveries kind of sucked so much (lol) that it was highly motivational to network with recruiters which is how I got back in industry.
There's definitely more optimal uses of time for a layoff but I wasn't utilizing them hence this was perfect for me at the time!
pylua•1h ago
forgetbook•39m ago