Softbank is likely in trouble and needs the cash or something.

Nvidia current market cap is 4.84 trillion dollars. Yes, that's roughly 5 trillions of dollars. 5.83B is a rounding error.

I think the gulf between what an entity does and what an entity says should at least form part of a measured response to that.

I see. I guess I simply think that Softbank isn't a good indicator for that. To me, they don't seem better than any other investment company that puts their money into technology stocks with a growth narrative. For example, they invested in WeWork and FTX.

They don't know the future, just like the rest of us.

If we're talking indicators, if 5 Softbanks would do it in rapid succession one after another it just mentions to me that the "smart money" is showing signs of moving out.

In terms of whether AI will or will not fuel growth, I think it will fuel growth. Self-driving cars seems to be a solved problem for cities at least fairly soon (e.g. Waymo, anti-example: Tesla, camera's is not the way).

It's a question whether LLMs state of the art models will grow more, but what hasn't been done that well yet is integrating it into current software. I know, because in part, that's my job. There's still a huge productivity unlock there, also in ways that people can't fully imagine.

Right now, LLMs seem to be an enabler for software engineers, especially software engineers on smaller projects (I can't find the research at the moment, it was a while ago that I read it). It seems to be an enabler for many people, but they do need to put time into prompting it in a way that works for them.

Fixing the context window issues and others I think will be really hard tasks, because I suspect we then need to know what goes on inside the black box.

If an LLM could continuously learn, so somehow continuously keep updating its weights such that it learns better, that would be a breakthrough.

It is not.

I mean for me it is, but not in an intellectual sense. Don't get me wrong, there are some good articles on HN about HFT and the technicality of it, but this is just, I don't know. Why Softbank? Didn't other big investment banks/funds sold out of NVidia at some point? Cathy Wood maybe, at some point? Why wasn't that on HN?

Stock news is barely on HN.

Oh, wait, I guess I see it now. It is on HN way more frequently when it involves Big Tech. And NVidia is increasingly seen as part of that. It used to be FAANG but now it's the Magnificent 7. The bias shifted.

That'd make sense.

Isn't it merely a matter of time before China has an alternative?

For researchers and academics, cuda is painful to avoid, but I'm not sure that it is for large companies, once the time comes to train and deploy large models.

Amazon’s Idaho 2Gw data center it’s building for Anthropic has 0 Nvidia Coda cores.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-says-anthropic-will-us...

> Anthropic is using 500,000 of Amazon’s Trainium2 chips for its Claude AI models as part of the tech giant's Project Rainier

It's SoftBank though, weird risk taking investments seems to be their jam.

In many ways OpenAI is transitioning towards an end-user facing product business. They have by far the strongest brand among consumers and are positioning themselves to take on Google/Meta in the ad business.

By proxy, having the strongest frontier model becomes less and less necessary for them and instead building a strong product by properly layering medium-strong models in a cost-efficient way is the priority.