I hope we have more of a “reality correction” than full blown bubble bursting, but the data is increasingly looking like we’re about to have a massive implosion that wipes out a generation of startups and sets the VC ecosystem back a decade.
The problem here is that it remains to be seen who is willing to pay for the service once it's priced at cost or even with a margin. And based on valuations of AI companies one would expect a huge margin.
Yes LLMs hallucinate, no it's no longer 2022 and ChatGPT (gpt-3.5) is the pinnacle of LLM tech. Modern LLMs in an agentic loop can self correct, you still need to be on guard but if used correctly (yes, yes, holding it wrong etc. etc.) can do many, many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time".
Granted, most of that was debugging some rather complicated typescript types which would probably be considered hard even for most humans, but the issue is that overall it wasted more of my time than it saved with its confidently wrong answers.
That's negative value to me. I cancelled my subscription this month for a reason.
like which tasks?
How do you decide whether you need to check or not?
If you're asking it to complete 100 sequences, and if the error rate is 5%, which 5% of the sequences do you think it messed up or _thought_ otherwise? if the 5% is in the middle, would the next 50 sequences be okay?
via govt relationships, long term irreplaceable services, debt or convictions.. Also don't forget the surveillance budgets and the best spigots there, win.
'It’s impossible to quantify how much cash flowed from OpenAI to big tech companies. But OpenAI’s loss in the quarter equates to 65% of the rise in underlying earnings—before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization—of Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together. That ignores Anthropic, from which Amazon recorded a profit of $9.5 billion from its holding in the loss making company in the quarter' - WSJ
Their earnings growth is their own money that they gave to OpenAI.
You have that waiting in the wings.
Coreweave for instance, now has its CDS trade around 600bp, which is a 1/3 rise in 2 months, which implies that the probability of a default in 5 years is 40% at a 40 cent recovery rate.
That makes Coreweave's credit rating the equivalent of CCC-, which aint good.
Additionally, Cohere is no less “kids” than Anthropic or OpenAI. Aidan was literally one of the co-authors of “Attention is all you need”.
Oracle's credit default swaps surge as Barclays downgrades its debt rating
dmoy•53m ago
nickff•43m ago