1. The Timeline: We are looking at a winter. A very dark and cold winter. Whether it hits before Christmas or mid-Q1 is a rounding error; the gap between valuations and fundamentals has widened enough to be physically uncomfortable. The Burry thesis—focused on depreciation schedules and circular revenue—is likely just the mechanical trigger for a sentiment cascade.
2. The Big Players:
Google: Likely takes the smallest hit. A merger between DeepMind and Anthropic is not far-fetched (unless Satya goes all the way). By consolidating the most capable models under one roof, Google insulates itself from the hardware crash better than anyone else (especially in light of TPU obvious advantages).
OpenAI: They look "half naked." It is becoming impossible to ignore the leadership vacuum. It’s hard to find people who’ve worked closely with Sama who speak well of his integrity, and the exits of Sutskever, Schulman, and others tell the real story. For a company at that valuation, leadership credibility isn’t a soft factor—it’s a structural risk.
3. The "Pre-Product" Unicorns: We are going to see a reality check for the ex-OpenAI, pre-product, multi-billion valuation labs like SSI and Thinking Machines. These are prime candidates for "acquihres" once capital tightens. They are built on assumptions of infinite capital availability that are about to evaporate.
4. The Downstream Impact: The second and third tier—specifically recent YC batches built on API wrappers and hype—will suffer the most from this catastrophic twister. When the tide goes out, the "Yes" men who got carried away by the wave will be shouting the loudest, pretending they saw it coming all along.
DaveZale•2mo ago