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Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34524
98•mhb•48m ago

Comments

mahatofu•33m ago
How does one find out what stocks each Rep owns?
burkaman•32m ago
https://unusualwhales.com/portfolios/pro-congress-etf
stego-tech•30m ago
Unusual Whales keeps track of Congressional disclosures and even built ETFs around each party’s picks: https://unusualwhales.com/politics

It’s absolutely disgusting that this sort of Insider Trading has been allowed to continue unchecked, and a significant contributor to the normalization of American corruption and its associated regulatory capture.

andsoitis•30m ago
See https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-find-lawmaker-investment... for the official disclosure portals, as well as some unofficial trackers.
showerst•29m ago
They have to fill out a disclosure form, but it's on a 30 day delay, often more because they file late.

Be wary of all the third party congressional stock trackers for this reason.

threatofrain•25m ago
By the time you factor in the information you're too late.
derrida•24m ago
Ask one of them to lunch, slip them an envelope.
burkaman•31m ago
Incorrect title, the finding is "lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension." This is saying that people in congressional leadership positions do 47% better than other members of Congress.
exasperaited•20m ago
The more committees you are on, the more opportunities you have for informed medium term trading that escapes insider-dealing scrutiny. It's a fundamental problem with government and it is why politicians should be required to put their stocks in a blind trust. But it still doesn't solve the problem of blind trusts not being truly blind when you know what went into them.
embedding-shape•16m ago
> it is why politicians should be required to put their stocks in a blind trust

Don't these people get a salary already? If "serving the people" isn't enough as an incentive, maybe they shouldn't be in a position for serving the people?

Outlaw politicians owning stocks at all, it makes no sense they ever could in the first place, when the incentives are so obviously misaligned. It simply lives too much room for misbehaving actors, no matter how much bandage you put on top.

_heimdall•12m ago
It makes more sense when the government isn't as powerful as it is today. If we didn't ask or expect our governments to do so much the politicians would have much less advantage over the average person.
bluGill•11m ago
I don't want people in congress as a career. Do it for at most 2 terms and get back to the real world. When that is the reality it means we cannot take away their ability to have stocks because when they return "to the real world" they will need that savings. Though while in office they should be limited to buying and selling from blind trusts and such things where they cannot know what happens except the economy in general. However if they own stock before it isn't fair to make them sell it: this is a really hard problem and there probably isn't an answer I will be happy with.
mothballed•8m ago
I would use straight up sortition rather than voting for congress. Propel people into the job from obscurity, by the time they've learned how to game the system it is time to leave.
micromacrofoot•5m ago
yeah this is exactly it, there's no good way to prevent congress from sharing inside information to enrich people around them in the wake of personal bans... we just need term limits to reduce the surface area
micromacrofoot•6m ago
it's not really possible considering that most retirement accounts are stock portfolios — it also doesn't matter too much on an individual level because an individual ban just gets pushed to sharing stock tips with extended family (already happens), family bans get pushed to friends, etc...

I really think the best and maybe only way to avoid this wealth building nonsense are much harsher term limits — public service should be severely limited to prevent people from being in decades long positions to abuse it. Term limits also prevent the incessant campaign fundraising to some extent, because say you're limited to 2 terms... there's not much point in personal fundraising on your last one

falcor84•13m ago
Could we just not prohibit lawmakers from investing in particular stocks, but rather to only invest in the market as a whole (e.g. via ETFs) and/or in government bonds?
miohtama•12m ago
Yes but politicians would need to agree. Why would they?
Jensson•5m ago
In a decent democracy you could vote those out, sadly USA ain't that.
ferguess_k•4m ago
That's why populist movements raise its head from time to time. It's the human's self-cleansing mechanism -- very damaging, and usually burn much more than necessary, but whatever.
Aurornis•4m ago
Restricting public servants to only government bond investments would be a great way to discourage anyone with financial sense from running for congress.

I think the simplest way forward would be to require immediate, not delayed, disclosure of trades. If they’re doing something, let everyone see it immediately and it specific detail.

We could also implement some planned trading requirements for large purchases of individual stocks: If someone wants to trade more than $100K of something, make them announce it 7 or even 1 day in advance. They still get to buy it, but the market can front-run the investment if they believe there’s inside info at play.

ApolloFortyNine•9m ago
>This is saying that people in congressional leadership positions do 47% better than other members of Congress.

It's even more damning than that I think.

>we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension.

The same person makes more after being put in a leadership position than before. That essentially removes any possibility of 'well maybe they're just more knowledgable and that's why they're in leadership.'

bilekas•30m ago
It must be just down to the fact that they're so intelligent and tuned into the world that they know where to invest. Nothing to see here folks, move along now.

I would say jokes aside but the political system promotes this corruption.

the__alchemist•28m ago
Corruption and unfair election systems are one of the clearest bipartisan embarrassments. I can't understand why this gets overshadowed by wedges. Maybe the media benefits from it?
daveguy•13m ago
The election systems are managed at the state level exactly as they should be. Corruption has a much lower chance when there are barriers.

That said, there should be national minimum standards for the elections.

Chain of custody is something all elections adhere to in the US, but if it's not a federal requirement, it should be.

What's really needed are hand marked paper ballots, electronically counted using open, independently audited machines with no network connectivity (obviously). "Scantron" style machines That should be a minimum requirement.

Nobody stole the election from the doddering old fool in 2020. Internet bullshit doesn't stand up in court where they do have evidence standards.

Edit: Back on topic ... individual stock trading by representatives clearly should be illegal. And apparently we need more independent watchdogs with better protections against a puppet who mindlessly goes along with the last person to manipulate them.

sebtron•30m ago
Ah yes that must be perfectly legal and a sign of a healthy democracy.
Simulacra•28m ago
My boss has invested in a fund that tracks Nancy Pelosi's stock trades for years, and he's made quite a profit. I wish I could do that.
bell-cot•22m ago
What's the barrier? Is the fund closed to new investors, or does it require a very large initial investment and/or years of "exemplary donations" to the Democratic party?
ta12653421•19m ago
NANC
fblp•21m ago
yep also curious about this!
ta12653421•19m ago
NANC
ta12653421•20m ago
you can do that, if you are in the US?

Ticker: NANC, its an ETF

lotsofpulp•17m ago
Nominal returns are only 11% more compared to a riskless VOO for the past 5 years. But NANC expense ratio is 0.74% per year while VOO is 0.03% per year. Every year, NANC would have to return an additional 0.7% just to break even with VOO, not accounting for the additional risk.

So we're looking at 11% - 3.5% = 7.5% real return over 5 years, or roughly 1.5% per year. I'll easily recommend passing on this one.

https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/NANC/VOO

Aurornis•11m ago
The fact that Nancy Pelosi became the meme for congress members trading stocks is more political than anything. The actual top performing congressional portfolios never make as much news. Pelosi doesn’t make as many trades as other members like Marjorie Taylor Green, who gets a free pass for some reason.

And everyone ignores the fact that her husband is a professional in the finance and venture capital world. Investing is literally his job.

Anyway, if you want to track her trades there are ETFs to do it. It’s not an exclusive investment thing. If you’re in the US you could buy them from your broker right now.

There are also countless sites that will push the Nancy Pelosi portfolio to your inbox, but they’re universally spammy and almost always pushing some other agenda too.

As a rule: If they’re focused specifically on Nancy Pelosi and not looking at top congressional trades as a whole, they’re more interested in pushing a political content than financial content.

Oh, and it’s important to know that you can’t actually track congressional portfolios in real time. The disclosures are delayed so you can only track them after the fact. If you believe they’re front-running insider info then the changes may have happened before you could possibly get the signal to buy or sell.

kortilla•6m ago
MTG gets a pass because she’s relatively new and mostly irrelevant. She’s also not on the side you expect to be better about avoiding shading money schemes given all of the public positioning.

One smacks of hypocrisy while the other is a dirt bag behaving exactly as expected.

boringg•28m ago
Its funny -- out of all the corruption you see from Washington this one seems the most benign. For whatever reason this one gets almost the most constant press. Maybe because its the easiest to fix but isn't.
exasperaited•19m ago
This is so far from benign.
kortilla•13m ago
Well it’s pretty benign if they aren’t making different decisions on laws based on existing holdings. That’s just insider trading which is a tax on the shareholders.

Bribery or anything else that affects their lawmaking decisions is significantly worse because the impact is so much larger.

AnimalMuppet•6m ago
If.

But there is a third option: They are making decisions based on what will move something the most - doesn't matter what, and doesn't matter which way, and doesn't matter for how long. Then they invest in that thing a bit before the decision becomes public that moves that thing.

clevergadget•6m ago
if they are actively avoiding making decisions based on how it would directly impact them? o,O
embedding-shape•13m ago
> out of all the corruption you see from Washington this one seems the most benign

Lawmakers deciding what laws to argue against/for based on how much money it'll get them personally is a benign issue? It's a very hard problem to solve, when the people making the laws have to outlaw behavior that makes them rich, but it's a very worthwhile one if you manage to get it down, because then you'll again get politicians working for the people rather than against.

myrmidon•7m ago
Peoples understanding of what "corruption" is differs by a surprising amount.

The boundaries between corruption, lobbyism, incompetence and nepotism can get very blurry (sometimes even actually representing your constituents interests can look this way!).

But policy makers enriching themselves by insider trading are seen as corrupt by pretty much everyone.

What is the less benign corruption seen in Washington that you feel is most pressing?

slibhb•24m ago
Despite Congress' general dysfunction, this seems like a problem that could feasibly be solved. It would make most Congressmen of both parties look good to pass a bill that e.g. restricted sitting members to index funds/mutual funds/etc.
Mistletoe•22m ago
Even that is open to massive bias. Who would vote to curtail the 7 tech giants when their own portfolio is basically the SP500 those companies dominate?
bradhilton•5m ago
The SP500 is probably the most popular investment in America, perhaps aside from housing. Wouldn't hurt to have lawmaker's fortunes broadly aligned versus narrowly aligned with specific corporations.
butlike•13m ago
A new "boutique" mutual/ETF would spin up overnight which included just the assets already being insider traded.
stevenjgarner•10m ago
Great intention, but too simplistic. The lawmaker has a third party set up a trust for the benefit of his children and the trust owns a company in yet another jurisdiction that just happens to not only take a position in a certain stock, but probably provides "consulting services" for a healthy fee. And that is the simple version. By the time the lawmaker's interest is fully obfuscated, the legal structure is fully compliant with every letter of the law, just not the intention. Better to have fewer laws that are actually enforceable.
SeanDav•23m ago
Right, no insider trading going on here at all /s
hypeatei•22m ago
I think the solution is to pay them more, create very strict laws around insider trading, and enforce those laws vigorously.

I don't know if that's realistic or not as the electorate has already shown they don't care enough to vote their representatives out for doing it and it's unlikely that current members would restrict their earnings. I guess it's good that we know about it, at least.

someguyiguess•18m ago
Somehow I don’t think paying them more is going to be a very popular idea among the citizenry.
tokai•17m ago
It also wouldn't help anything.
esafak•4m ago
Not unless you combine it with outlawing trading for them.
dr_dshiv•14m ago
They should benchmark to early USA and Singapore and corporations.

George Washington was paid 4x Trump, I believe.

In the context of corruption cleanup, I think people understand that paying people well avoids corruption. Mexican cops, that sort of thing.

Yes, not popular, but important.

hypeatei•12m ago
I agree, but the substance of the issue is that their pay has remained the same since 2009 at $174k/year (i.e. not kept up with inflation at all) so if we want to discourage corrupt behavior then giving them a proper salary is probably a good idea if we're going to restrict other methods of building wealth.
gwbas1c•15m ago
> as the electorate has already shown they don't care enough to vote their representatives out for doing it

The problem arises from how we run elections. It's very hard to dislodge an incumbent when the small group of people voting in a primary are very biased, and then the people voting in the general election really don't want the candidate from the other party.

I suggest reading "Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America" by Lee Drutman.

https://www.amazon.com/Breaking-Two-Party-Doom-Loop-Multipar...

andsoitis•15m ago
How much do they get paid currently?

Many people agree with Bay Area's idea that people making less than $105k are poor - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46036803

dr_dshiv•14m ago
Not enough to attracted talented, sane people with strong ethical values
hugeBirb•7m ago
Braindead to think salary is somehow attached to morality. I would say some of the most immoral people are people with a lot of money, and there are countless examples of that.
Brybry•6m ago
$174k to $223k + allowances up to $2 million

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30064#:~:text=The%20c...

hugeBirb•14m ago
Why would we pay them more? The people who are in Congress for the money are the exact type of people I don't want in Congress.
georgeburdell•13m ago
I’m also in the camp of paying government officials more. In my town, the mayor and council make about $30k each while the median income in the city is well over $100k and houses cost over $1M. That self-selects out the majority of qualified candidates who must work for a living.

We have several high tech companies as well as a pro sports team that perpetually influence politics to the city’s detriment, and the stooges that get put on our ballot each election are simply under-equipped to combat them.

dfxm12•13m ago
I don't understand how paying them more will curtail this. This is a mixture of a crime of convenience and greed. It's not a Les Mis situation where they need these stock picks to survive (or even thrive). The current US Administration is full of rich people who are still not above corruption.

Obama signed the STOCK act into law, but of course, who watches the watchmen?

stetrain•7m ago
The idea is that if their salary does not actually cover the expenses of living in and traveling to DC to do their job, you are limiting the pool of potential congressional representatives to those who are independently wealthy or who are finding other ways to make money via their position.

Paying enough to cover the expenses of the job isn't a solution to all problems, just kind of a minimum bar if we want a normal person to be able do the job without relying on other income sources.

SilverBirch•5m ago
You've just been presented evidence that your law makers are doing something immoral, something that should be illegal, and your idea is to pay them more. Do you also advocate putting a little pot of cash at the front of every walmart so the shop lifters can just take the cash and pay for the stuff they were going to steal?
james_marks•18m ago
Unpopular opinion, but couldn’t this be explained by something as innocent as seeing what changes are likely to be coming?

By having lawmakers as peers, you’d have a natural feel for what laws have momentum, who would benefit, etc.

I’m not ruling out corruption, just that assuming malicious intent often masks underlying dynamics.

someguyiguess•17m ago
“Seeing what changes are coming” is insider information.
chrisweekly•13m ago
Exactly. The corruption is systemic and structural, rather than individuals' moral failings. (Though of course there's plenty of the latter, too.)
kortilla•10m ago
That’s not insider information following the legal definition in the US. That’s why people want to make special laws to prevent this.

It’s not insider information to buy or short a stock knowing you’re about to do something that will impact a company.

tedggh•13m ago
Geniuses.
commiepatrol•9m ago
Is there like a TL;DR of what I should do to also get 47% better? Happy to copy someone's profile
clevergadget•5m ago
hey and if we all do it we could all get 47% more!
trentnix•9m ago
They shouldn't be allowed to trade stocks. When you do so, corruption is inevitable.

It should be an expected price of public service that you remove yourself from most other ambitions.

Every single one of these scoundrels will stand up at a college graduation and exhort the virtues of public service and sacrifice for country. But somehow they all manage to get rich in the midst of their own service and sacrifice.

I'd hope that if they were required to live off of their (rapidly depreciating) savings and income, like most Americans, they might consider some of their legislative choices differently.

VikingCoder•9m ago
Can I find one of these people in congressional leadership positions, who is willing to accept a sizeable campaign contribution in exchange for joining their mailing list which contains their list of stock purchases in real time?

Or is that one of those, "Of course that exists, but if you have to ask how much it costs, you can't afford it" kind of things?

stackedinserter•6m ago
Great, so I can copycat their portfolio and do 47 pts better.

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