Given how we assign almost non existent probabilities to certain events but it is never 0 and can have catastrophic impacts in important events I found this quite illuminating.

India is a country where cricket is almost religion, and cricket is a sport where toss can be very important, sometimes almost deciding factor. It is funny to see such a low probability event happening with its one day international (ODI) cricket team. What is even funny is that the first toss loss was the final of their home world cup which they lost to Australia after winning all league matches and going into it undefeated.

While the outcome here is mostly heartbreak of some passionate fans and otherwise harmless, I wonder how many historical events have happened and are clearly documented to have been much rarer than one can expect.

As far as I remember Hurricane Harvey was a 1 in 500 year event impacting the concrete jungle of Houston much worse than any of the planners could've imagined. All it might take is a 1 in 500 year earthquake to signficantly impact US west coast.