On the one hand, we hear about immigrants are powering America, filling 1 in 5 jobs as this piece mentions. On the other hand, we hear about unemployment and underemployment continuing to be issues and a fragile labor market, with the Fed cutting rates to preserve the job market.
It feels like the labor market is being held together by the retirement and death rate that ongoing job losses (in the aggregate) can be absorbed by this retirement rate, while wages aren't going up and labor supply slack still exists because of immigrant labor. Is that thesis incorrect? (~4M Boomers retire a year, ~11k/day, ~2M people 55+ die every year, about half of which are in the labor force; that means ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day in the US, ~400k/month)
nephihaha•2mo ago
Migration acts as a sticking plaster/bandaid for developed countries' low birthrates.
Given that job automation is beginning to accelerate, we have to ask the uncomfortable question of how many migrants (let alone non-migrants) will be needed in the developed world's labour markets in the near future. The current pattern is not going to hold.
toomuchtodo•2mo ago
US filings for jobless benefits fall to 191,000, lowest since September of 2022 - https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-filings-jobless... - December 4, 2025
The United States of Unemployment - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ter01-the-united-states-... - November 3rd, 2025
On the one hand, we hear about immigrants are powering America, filling 1 in 5 jobs as this piece mentions. On the other hand, we hear about unemployment and underemployment continuing to be issues and a fragile labor market, with the Fed cutting rates to preserve the job market.
It feels like the labor market is being held together by the retirement and death rate that ongoing job losses (in the aggregate) can be absorbed by this retirement rate, while wages aren't going up and labor supply slack still exists because of immigrant labor. Is that thesis incorrect? (~4M Boomers retire a year, ~11k/day, ~2M people 55+ die every year, about half of which are in the labor force; that means ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day in the US, ~400k/month)
nephihaha•2mo ago
Given that job automation is beginning to accelerate, we have to ask the uncomfortable question of how many migrants (let alone non-migrants) will be needed in the developed world's labour markets in the near future. The current pattern is not going to hold.