Brutal math is that there are 25M men in 18..50 years range in Russia, with 700K entering that range and 700K ageing out each year, so number is stable (both figures will be increasing approximately in sync over the next 10 years, to about 1M a year, so the number of men in the bracket will not change.
Which means there are about 15M of those that can be conscripted (removing those already in uniformed services of various sorts, mentally ill, disabled, busy in critical industry or government, or too criminal) and it means that a loss rate of 5x current is required to make the war demographically unsustainable for Putin.
When this is done though, in 10 years he will realise that he can't reach for any other demographic - those over 50 now will be over 60 and certainly unfit for duty, and the number of kids turning 18 each year will be falling off a cliff.
Question is how to increase the loss ratio by 5x. Certainly it can't be done on frontline alone - long range drones should hunt down people deep in Russian territory.
tim333•2mo ago
I think Russia running out of money may be more practical than them running out of people.
anovikov•2mo ago
In a way yes. Because running out of money will mean running out of people faster as they will use cheaper simpler tech that increases their casualty rate.
Let's face it: Russia can't stop, their whole society is war-oriented and stopping means catastrophe even if they stop by winning.
tim333•2mo ago
Russia as a whole would be fine stopping. Putin less so. Maybe they'll get rid of him one day?
anovikov•2mo ago
Not really. Except Moscow and St. Pete and a few oil-rich boomtowns, the rest of Russia never enjoyed living standards as high as today that only exist because of war economy jobs, war-induced worker shortage in the private sector, and money sent back home by those fighting at the frontline. Even industries far away from this domain, win: coder pay is amazing because there's acute shortage just because too many of them emigrated being afraid of conscription.
Even more importantly, everyday Russian, living in a petrostate economy, always felt redundant and useless because he knew Putin doesn't need him: he's little but an extra mouth to feed, wholly dependent on Putin's kindness. In the last 4 years, for the first time ever, Putin needs everyday little guy because war isn't going to win itself and just Chechens are not enough. They are legitimately afraid of being pushed back into irrelevance if the war ever ends. So are naturally interested in continuing regardless of how well it goes.
tim333•2mo ago
Russia did ok before the 2022 invasion. I'm kind of surprised Russians don't have another revolution and join the modern world. I mean I watch things like https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1996684184010870831 about how they are treated and wonder how they put up with it.
dfedbeef•2mo ago
Eerily similar to 'the surge' in the US for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The US and Russia are so weirdly similar.
anovikov•2mo ago
Which means there are about 15M of those that can be conscripted (removing those already in uniformed services of various sorts, mentally ill, disabled, busy in critical industry or government, or too criminal) and it means that a loss rate of 5x current is required to make the war demographically unsustainable for Putin.
When this is done though, in 10 years he will realise that he can't reach for any other demographic - those over 50 now will be over 60 and certainly unfit for duty, and the number of kids turning 18 each year will be falling off a cliff.
Question is how to increase the loss ratio by 5x. Certainly it can't be done on frontline alone - long range drones should hunt down people deep in Russian territory.
tim333•2mo ago
anovikov•2mo ago
Let's face it: Russia can't stop, their whole society is war-oriented and stopping means catastrophe even if they stop by winning.
tim333•2mo ago
anovikov•2mo ago
Even more importantly, everyday Russian, living in a petrostate economy, always felt redundant and useless because he knew Putin doesn't need him: he's little but an extra mouth to feed, wholly dependent on Putin's kindness. In the last 4 years, for the first time ever, Putin needs everyday little guy because war isn't going to win itself and just Chechens are not enough. They are legitimately afraid of being pushed back into irrelevance if the war ever ends. So are naturally interested in continuing regardless of how well it goes.
tim333•2mo ago