This is a personal project that tries to translate AI capability growth into job-level timelines using task horizons, friction, and hazard modeling. It’s not meant to predict the economy, but to give individuals a way to reason about their own role.
Happy to answer questions or explain assumptions. Please see the Methodology page for a technical breakdown or the Guide for a more accessible essay.
claywren•1h ago
This is a personal project that tries to translate AI capability growth into job-level timelines using task horizons, friction, and hazard modeling. It’s not meant to predict the economy, but to give individuals a way to reason about their own role.
Happy to answer questions or explain assumptions. Please see the Methodology page for a technical breakdown or the Guide for a more accessible essay.