As the top comment in MR points out this is not that impressive.
> 12 hour ahead prediction is .0581.
The "ahead" is Before Markets Resolve. Brier score 0.0581 12h before markets resolve is usually not impressive score and information gained has usually little value.
Another issue is the difficulty of questions. You can get arbitrarily low Brier score with easy questions.
Low Brier score when the information is not already there and it has value would be impressive. Accurate Brier score when things are often already settled and information has little value is not interesting.
bediger4000•1mo ago
I'd like to see a prediction market that let you make money on guessing the author of a Marginal Revolution post, based on knowing the title.
nabla9•1mo ago
> 12 hour ahead prediction is .0581.
The "ahead" is Before Markets Resolve. Brier score 0.0581 12h before markets resolve is usually not impressive score and information gained has usually little value.
Another issue is the difficulty of questions. You can get arbitrarily low Brier score with easy questions.
Low Brier score when the information is not already there and it has value would be impressive. Accurate Brier score when things are often already settled and information has little value is not interesting.