>> if AI doesn’t deliver politically sustainable growth
I'm surprised that anyone would think that AI could deliver long-term economic growth, am I missing something?
fuzzfactor•1mo ago
>am I missing something?
You're both seeing all that can be seen.
If you look at it like a prediction market, AI may have a growing influence on the odds and resulting payouts.
One big factor is how much of peoples' or firms' life savings have been staked on a complete takeover of labor by AI, as the only path to future prosperity, or even continued prosperity, on a diverse range of roadmaps.
And whose life savings it actually started out as. If you followed the money all the way to where it came from.
A lot of these are high-dollar outfits, so total bankruptcy may not be a short-term risk, especially when there's enough financial responsibility, or just plain reserves, to come nowhere near the end of the road.
But all the time and momentum (in dollars among other things) moving in the same direction as other orgs that will end up bankrupt, is going to have to be turned around somehow. Anything in the other direction, not even near 180 degrees away from full losses, could be a better choice.
And you do have to admit that the real road to the ultimate AI of so many dreams is exactly in the opposite direction from total bankruptcy.
Yes that's the road that leads directly away from failure, naturally just the opposite, untold riches. And accompanying power that makes it politically significant. But it's not only unpaved, it's not even a trail since nobody's gotten there any known way before. The goal is beyond the horizon, and nobody knows if the Emerald City will even be all it's cracked up to be, if you can even see it when you finally get to the horizon you are headed for so far.
Nobody can put a number on it so the best advice is to pay attention to the odds and where they are coming from.
This is from a gifted expert and the article does focus on the dollar and shared lived experience over more decades than most, but for really long-term market strategy it might as well be Roman coins when so much of the time a winning strategy is to never wager more than you can afford to lose.
ludicrousdispla•1mo ago
I'm surprised that anyone would think that AI could deliver long-term economic growth, am I missing something?
fuzzfactor•1mo ago
You're both seeing all that can be seen.
If you look at it like a prediction market, AI may have a growing influence on the odds and resulting payouts.
One big factor is how much of peoples' or firms' life savings have been staked on a complete takeover of labor by AI, as the only path to future prosperity, or even continued prosperity, on a diverse range of roadmaps.
And whose life savings it actually started out as. If you followed the money all the way to where it came from.
A lot of these are high-dollar outfits, so total bankruptcy may not be a short-term risk, especially when there's enough financial responsibility, or just plain reserves, to come nowhere near the end of the road.
But all the time and momentum (in dollars among other things) moving in the same direction as other orgs that will end up bankrupt, is going to have to be turned around somehow. Anything in the other direction, not even near 180 degrees away from full losses, could be a better choice.
And you do have to admit that the real road to the ultimate AI of so many dreams is exactly in the opposite direction from total bankruptcy.
Yes that's the road that leads directly away from failure, naturally just the opposite, untold riches. And accompanying power that makes it politically significant. But it's not only unpaved, it's not even a trail since nobody's gotten there any known way before. The goal is beyond the horizon, and nobody knows if the Emerald City will even be all it's cracked up to be, if you can even see it when you finally get to the horizon you are headed for so far.
Nobody can put a number on it so the best advice is to pay attention to the odds and where they are coming from.
This is from a gifted expert and the article does focus on the dollar and shared lived experience over more decades than most, but for really long-term market strategy it might as well be Roman coins when so much of the time a winning strategy is to never wager more than you can afford to lose.
Merry Christmas :)