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The Emerging Market for Intelligence: Pricing, Supply, and Demand for LLMs

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34608
2•bikenaga•2h ago

Comments

bikenaga•2h ago
Abstract: "We document six facts about the structure and dynamics of the LLM market using API usage data from OpenRouter and Microsoft Azure. First, we show rapid growth in the number of models, creators, and inference providers, driven by open-source entrants. Second, we show price declines and persistent price heterogeneity across and within intelligence tiers, with open-source models being 90% cheaper than comparable closed-source models of the same intelligence. Third, we document market dynamism, with frequent turnover among leading models and creators. Fourth, we present evidence of horizontal and vertical differentiation, with no single model dominating across use cases, and demand for intelligence varying widely across applications. Fifth, we estimate preliminary short-run price elasticities just above one, suggesting limited scope for Jevons-Paradox effects. Finally, we show that although the share of firms that use multiple models increased over time, most firms concentrate their use on a single model, consistent with experimentation rather than persistent reliance on multiple models."

"For You" Feed for Science

https://www.researchhub.com/
1•Tardigrade10•28s ago•0 comments

Outside, Dungeon, Town: Integrating the Three Places in Videogames (2024)

https://keithburgun.net/outside-dungeon-town-integrating-the-three-places-in-videogames/
1•vector_spaces•1m ago•0 comments

39C3 – Breaking architecture barriers: Running x86 games and apps on ARM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yDXyW1WERg
1•doener•1m ago•0 comments

Stranger Things Creator: Turn Off TV's Garbage Settings

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRiaP2zEow4/
1•next_xibalba•2m ago•0 comments

Why A.I. Didn't Transform Our Lives in 2025

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/2025-in-review/why-ai-didnt-transform-our-lives-in-2025
1•petethomas•3m ago•0 comments

Show HN: McNeal – Encrypted messaging over acoustic channels

https://github.com/AntonioLambertTech/McnealV2
1•netIsNewWrldOrd•5m ago•0 comments

Show HN: SAFi, a Governance Engine for LLMs

https://safi.selfalignmentframework.com
1•jnamaya•7m ago•0 comments

'Capital of capital': how Abu Dhabi rose as a sovereign wealth powe

https://www.ft.com/content/711e670c-4832-49cb-8b10-5018103ec785
1•petethomas•10m ago•0 comments

The Magic of Merlin

https://www.birds.cornell.edu/home/the-magic-of-merlin/
1•Group_B•14m ago•0 comments

Why most software startups don't need VCs anymore (most)

https://sderosiaux.substack.com/p/why-most-software-startups-dont-need
1•chtefi•16m ago•0 comments

Episteme: A New System for Science

https://episteme.com/
1•momeara•18m ago•0 comments

Comparative Overview of EU-US Vehicle Standards

https://etsc.eu/comparative-overview-eu-us-vehicle-standards/
4•throw0101c•23m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Giselle – open-source visual editor for building AI workflows

https://github.com/giselles-ai/giselle
1•codenote•25m ago•0 comments

Don't call yourself a programmer, and other career advice (2011)

https://www.kalzumeus.com/2011/10/28/dont-call-yourself-a-programmer/
1•teleforce•27m ago•1 comments

Five myths about learning a new language – busted

https://theconversation.com/five-myths-about-learning-a-new-language-busted-266946
2•zeristor•28m ago•0 comments

Miniray – A WGSL Minifier

https://hugodaniel.com/posts/miniray/
1•todsacerdoti•29m ago•0 comments

MongoDB Server Security Update, December 2025

https://www.mongodb.com/company/blog/news/mongodb-server-security-update-december-2025
10•plorkyeran•32m ago•1 comments

The Manus Debate and Why Some Bubbly AI Moonshots Aren't Bubbles

https://substack.com/inbox/post/182749582
1•theno0b•36m ago•1 comments

Show HN: DynamicHorizon – Dynamic Island for macOS

https://www.dynamichorizon.app
2•DHDEV•50m ago•0 comments

The Second Great Error Model Convergence

https://matklad.github.io/2025/12/29/second-error-model-convergence.html
1•kartikarti•52m ago•0 comments

Hyaluronic Acid in Topical Applications: Hero Molecule in the Cosmetics Industry

https://www.mdpi.com/2218-273X/15/12/1656
2•PaulHoule•54m ago•0 comments

Robots Are Hard – Revisiting the original Roomba and its simple architecture

https://robotsinplainenglish.com/e/2025-12-27-roomba.html
3•ArmageddonIt•57m ago•0 comments

Capital in the 22nd Century

https://philiptrammell.substack.com/p/capital-in-the-22nd-century
2•jger15•59m ago•0 comments

Will Skyrocketing Silver Prices Make Photo Film More Expensive?

https://petapixel.com/2025/12/29/will-skyrocketing-silver-prices-make-photo-film-even-more-expens...
1•geox•59m ago•0 comments

Show HN: J_PyDB – tiny encrypted file-based Python DB

https://github.com/NovaDev404/J_PyDB
1•SuperGamer474•1h ago•1 comments

Stranger Things Creator Says Turn Off "Garbage" Settings

https://screenrant.com/stranger-things-creator-turn-off-settings-premiere/
21•1970-01-01•1h ago•8 comments

Bye Bye Big Tech: How I Migrated to an Almost All-EU Stack (and Saved 500€/Year)

https://www.zeitgeistofbytes.com/p/bye-bye-big-tech-how-i-migrated-to
3•alexcos•1h ago•0 comments

Yae – Powerful yet Minimal Nix Dependency Manager

https://github.com/Fuwn/yae
1•MrJulia•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Notion-like private Markdown pages on Nostr

https://pages.formstr.app
1•abhsag24•1h ago•0 comments

A Timelapse of Satellite Launches: 1957–2025 [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ7O2gigebQ
3•animal_spirits•1h ago•1 comments