I’m trying to learn how founders and sales leaders forecast revenue at $2M–$15M ARR when the dataset is small and the process is still forming.

Stage-weighted pipeline and confidence scoring seem to produce consistent failure modes: Late-quarter surprises, optimistic sales "Commits", inactive pipeline that inflates coverage, that sort of thing.

If you have a forecasting approach that has worked at this stage, I’d love details like: - What inputs you trust (buyer actions, MAPs, next-step dates, meetings, security review started, etc.) - How you define stages so they mean something - How you audit pipeline for the truth without getting into storytelling sessions - What you stopped doing that made the biggest difference

I’m building a system in this space, so I’m biased, but I’m here to learn what actually works in the wild.

If it’s useful, I can share a 1-page rubric and a simple weekly pipeline review checklist. Email in my profile.