In their view, the topology of Iranians and their political views would be: 10% - pro-US regime change intervention; 20% - ardent regime supporters; 70% - pro-regime change but without US involvement.
older conservative boomers vs. younger moderates. it wasn't old ladies launching riots about wearing headscarves...
It might have been a possibility if Israel didn’t decide to start a war and assassination campaign against Iran.
I agree that these types of things galvanize a population.
Sometimes better to just let sleeping bears sleep.
The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. There was minimal impact to the enrichment campaign. And the fact that negotiation was used as a ruse by the Americans is definitely a motivation to pursue enrichment even further.
Not to mention that regional powers are now wary of Israel’s expansionist nature and see nuclear power as the only true deterrent. Think about it: does anyone ever mess around with Pakistan or NK?
This offensive directly led to the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, with Turkey probably joining soon. I would also wager that both KSA and Turkey are starting or are considering starting their own nuclear weapons programs.
That is a statement that might make sense two weeks ago, but now? Evidently the effect Israel war had was not enough to prevents riots, or arguably might have emboldened them
2. The scale of the protests is very likely overblown.
3. Iran’s purging of Mossad assets since the 12 day war has not yet wrapped up. The CIA is rumored to also have assets participating in these riots.
2. Hard to tell yet, there are videos that at least claim to show hundreds of dead which indicate both mass shooting and mass demonstrations
3. The issue is that like in USSR, any political prisoner given enough torture admits spying. So you can't really tell which are and which aren't. I wouldn't put much trust on Iranian media on that matter, especially when they only point at external enemies when there have been repeating demonstrations for years and life has only turned progressively worse for the Iranian people
2. Agree that it’s hard to tell for certain.
3. The truth is somewhere in between. My reading is that Mossad is definitely operating on the ground in some capacity.
3. Yes, it showed impressive operational capacity on the ground during the war. However, trying to attribute the protests solely to Israeli intelligence both gives too much credit to Israel, and uses the same mechanism in point 1 that erases the more uncomfortable parts of reality to keep a predefined political idea coherent.
To highly paraphrase, in order to create a myth you shouldn't be concerned with what you remember but with what you forget
But my point with the comparison is that the protests in their current form are not worthy of this level of coordinated international coverage. The fact that this ramp up in coverage coincides with rhetoric from multiple governments signaling that regime change is a short term goal raises suspicion.
Also, nowhere did I say that the Mossad is somehow pulling the strings behind the scenes. They are definitely one factor behind these protests, along with the pro-Shah contingent inside and outside the country, as well as serious anti-regime elements inside the country. The latter is a minority thanks to the 12 day war, which comes back to my initial point.
Israel’s war on Iran was an important piece in the way to the collapse of the regime. It exposed how incompetent the regime truly is in protecting Iran, and how the Iranian “ring of fire” project (masterminded by Qassem Suleimani) to encircle Israel with proxies, at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, was taken apart by Israel in the course of a year. All of this investment, in direct funding as well as sanctions over the past 40 years came to naught when Israel struck back. Mullahs were exposed as weak, irrelevant, only able to oppress their own.
Furthermore, Israel essentially decapitated the Iranian state apparatus in those 12 days. Everyone who mattered in the government and IRGC was killed. It just completely pulled the rug from under this regime.
I’m almost confident this is over. And with it there’s going to be a huge shift in Middle East politics. Likely more countries will align with Israel, but the removal of the primary Shia power might push the Sunnis to negatively fixate on Israel.
Let’s follow up in a few months and see who was right.
I am less convinced this is the end though, but maybe another step in a slow death of the regime. Regarding your last point, this is already happening, now that Iran is weak the KSA has less of an interest to ally with Israel and it shifts to allying its previous rivals of Qatar and Turkey along with Pakistan
There was also a three year old killed by anti-regime protestors which has heightened the sentiments of pro-regime protestors.
The Iranian anti-regime movement is very well established and is not the product of foreign intervention. It's actually not all that clear that foreign actors in the region favor regime change!
(I'm not holding out much hope that these protests will actually topple the regime, though it would be amazing if they did.)
I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention.
There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention.
After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.
Some of this is disputable, much of it isn't. Meanwhile:
* There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests, just narratives. The track record on unsupported but convincing-sounding narratives everywhere is pretty bad; nowhere is it worse than in this part of the world.
* There's no evidence that the protests themselves are pro-US (and certainly not pro-Israel; most of the protesters probably don't like Israel!). They just want water, jobs, and currency that can reliably buy food.
* There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled. Iran is incredibly weak right now. Regional powers like Turkey, Saudi, and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain from an Iranian overthrow, but the whole region has a lot to lose from instability.
So yeah, I'd say: pretty extraordinary claim --- again, that claim being, "the anti-regime movement is the product of foreign intervention".
I want to keep saying: I don't think the protests will be successful. It's a state specifically designed to prevent protests movements like these from being successful! They may suck at air defense, but I don't think they're bad at putting down rebellions.
I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal.
> and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain
Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.
Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!
That said; if you believe (as do some commenters here) that Israel could ignite nationwide protests with 100,000s of people whenever they want, then they definitely don't have to worry about Irans army
I'm just a message board commenter, this is just a take.
They love to imagine that the suffering of a populace is some guarantee of both a revolution and the success of that revolution. For some reason the near-total destruction of Syria and ongoing conflicts in the MENA region don't seem to register. At this point I'm convinced that social media creates an environment that rewards wishcasting more than logical analysis based on precedent.
The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled.
The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the point of no return.
Based on my last contact with my family, our people have crossed a line and there is no going back.
What Westerners don't realize is that if your back is against the wall, all you have left is putting your life on line.
People rather die trying because truthfully, what is the alternative?
This doesn’t seem very different than the 2008 and Mahsa protests.
Most likely there will be an internal reorganization towards economic reform and moderate social policies.
This time, there's no calls for conciliation or change, it's outright "death to the tyrants" and an astonishing number of people hitting the streets. They're burning down mosques, tearing down statues, burning out police stations, lynching regime officials, going to officials houses and dragging them out, and so on.
Also, it's been going on for 16 days at this point, and for some reason, is noticeably absent from world media. That feels significant, somehow.
There are reports of hospitals, banks and other institutional buildings being burned, even fire engines - but does it make sense for iranians to burn those?
But the mossad stated they have agents acting in the field. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733
FYI, statues of khomeini, etc were burnt during Mahsa Amini protests too. https://x.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1573372214833041409?s=20
The question remains - after everything is burned to the ground, what opposition or leader is going to take control, if not the IRGC or military?
> it's been going on for 16 days at this point, and for some reason, is noticeably absent from world media. That feels significant, somehow
somehow, yes, but in a good or bad way? what is the significance? maybe the US/israel was gearing up to bomb Iran and the revolts would endear Iranian people to the Western public in a way that powers that be don't want? just thinking out loud here
Edit: chanced on an article which kind of supports this idea
A national security expert said President Donald Trump may already be prepared to act against Iran, suggesting a widely reported upcoming briefing on U.S. options could be intentional "deception" as deadly protests intensify in the country.
It depends on the Jamming power and the satellite beamforming how close you would have to be to jam it.
This is not the case for GPS because GPS is receive-only and the satellite doesn't listen for user transmissions (although you could still try to jam the control uplink to prevent synchronization which would decrease accuracy over a few days, but then you would have to be close to the GPS control stations and you'll probably get arrested soon)
It's my understanding Iran polices the ISPs, who aren't assigning IP addresses at this time. Iran could treat the dishes as contraband, but short of working with Starlink, is there a practical way for them to prevent satellite internet? You could flood all channels with packets like a jammer or something, but doing that at nation-scale still seems impractical to me? I'm not an expert in any of these fields, just asking really
Easiest way would be to fly drones or planes around and look for the dishes. Should be possible to receive and triangulate the signals.
The problem for Iran regime is that they are busy putting down the uprising.
A related question that someone here may be able to answer: Who wins the jamming game in principal? Is it $JAMMER or $COMMUNICATORS?
It seems like Starlink could distribute secret codes[0] on each device, where each code is used in some kind of spread spectrum scheme, and that jamming all of the codes would be difficult, the wider the spectrum? There must be some kind of energy/bandwidth tradeoff, but what I want to understand is if the game is easier for one side in principal.
(It's "in principle" BTW.)
The revolts in Iran are backed by US/Israel. They openly brag about it on every channel. They don’t care about Iranian‘s freedoms. They are the same who support every dictator in the region if and only if that dictator accepts Israel‘s dominance.
Edit: Yeah, let’s downvote instead if arguing.
Edit 2: https://x.com/ggreenwald/status/2010798811288133695
> Glenn Greenwald:
> Trump's former CIA Director and the largest newspapers of the Israeli media can state explicitly and clearly that the Mossad is all over the protests in Iran, and yet still people will deny it and say only a conspiracy theorist could believe such a crazy tale.
For example, it's interesting that the US would declare Jolani a terrorist if they were in support of his regime.
There was a large bounty on his head until recently because of his atrocities.
Please enlighten us with some of this easily verifiable information.
The part we're all having trouble with is "and therefore the US wants to install the son of the Shah."
Words are cheap and politicians often do much different than they promised. Remember when Trump said no new wars? Remember when he said we were done in Iran after dropping the bombs, and now intervention is looming?
There is very little in that post that is verifiable. See above for what most people would call the rest of the content.
What part of the comment is disputable?
> Western governments do not want democracy in Iran.
This is purely speculation, and is not generally true based on statements from Western governments. What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation. If the current leaders in Iran were not sponsoring terrorists across the world, weren't actively pursuing the most dangerous military weapon in existence, and hadn't run their country into the ground, I don't think Western governments would spend much time thinking about Iran or its form of government.
> They want the son of Shah back in Iran, the Shah whose father tortured and exploited Iranians, and that led to the revolution and the rise of the mullahs.
The second part of this is true (the Shah was a poor ruler), but the first does not appear to be true.
> The US and Israel want regime change so Israel can dominate the ME.
I suspect your definition of "dominate the ME" is not very mainstream if you accept this at face value. Iran (along with some other ME nations) has a stated goal of wiping Israel off the map, which Israel strongly disagrees with.
> Just like they replaced Assad in Syria by Jolani, a wanted Al Qaeda terrorist who does not oppose Israel in any way but slaughter kurds and alavites because they are moderate muslims.
How did Western governments replace Assad with Jolani? Do you want the leader of Syria to oppose Israel, or should they attempt to normalize relations with a neighbor? Have you considered that he realizes that he can't win that fight and is attempting to cling to the power he seized during their civil war?
> The revolts in Iran are backed by US/Israel.
Any evidence of this?
> They openly brag about it on every channel.
Any evidence of this?
> They don’t care about Iranian‘s freedoms.
Any evidence of this?
> They are the same who support every dictator in the region if and only if that dictator accepts Israel‘s dominance.
Any evidence of this? Again, Western governments are really looking for stability first, and will accept it if a dictator can provide it based on past behavior.
In short, these are a bunch of highly biased and polarizing statements of opinion, some of which might be backed by a shred of truth but then warped to fit a very specific viewpoint.
So when you see Reza Pahlavi suddenly getting airtime in Western policy circles, or street protests getting instrumentalized, or the recent conflict framed as a chance to degrade Iranian capabilities—it's not hard to read that as regime-change-by-attrition rather than genuine concern for what Iranians actually want.
---
And since you are too lazy to google yourself, here's some food for thought for you:
1953 COUP & PATTERN OF UNDERCUTTING INCONVENIENT DEMOCRACIES
The coup itself: - Detailed reconstructions document CIA/MI6 overthrow of elected Mossadegh to restore a pro-Western Shah and protect Western oil interests.[1][2][3][4] - CIA officially acknowledged its role; mainstream sources frame it as toppling Iran's elected government, followed by decades of US-backed dictatorship.[5][6]
The pattern: - Once you map 1953 → Hamas 2006 → ongoing Saudi/Egyptian support, scholars synthesize it into the exact logic described: democracy is fine until it threatens US/Israeli primacy.[2][10][11][13]
HAMAS' 2006 ELECTORAL VICTORY & WESTERN RESPONSE
- Hamas won a free, competitive election in 2006; the US and allies then moved to diplomatically and financially isolate the government unless it met stringent conditions.[7][8][9][10] - Policy analysis shows US-led isolation pushed the Palestinian Authority toward collapse—fitting the claim that "democracy promotion" gets subordinated to Israeli interests once voters pick the "wrong" side.[9][10][7]
BANKROLLING AUTHORITARIAN PARTNERS (SAUDI ARABIA, MUBARAK'S EGYPT)
- US military and economic aid to Egypt under Mubarak continued for decades despite systematic repression; "democracy assistance" remained marginal compared to security aid.[11] - Bipartisan US tolerance for Saudi Arabia and Gulf monarchies persists despite their undemocratic character—even after Khashoggi, even during Saudi counter-revolutionary moves against Arab Spring uprisings.[12][13]
THE STRUCTURAL LOGIC: "PLIANT REGIONAL ORDER" + ISRAELI MILITARY DOMINANCE
- Critical analyses argue Washington's overriding priority is stability of a pro-US security architecture and Israel's qualitative military edge; democracy and human rights are secondary, adjustable variables.[13][12]
REZA PAHLAVI, STREET PROTESTS & REGIME-CHANGE-BY-ATTRITION
- Reza Pahlavi is positioned as a pro-Western, pro-Israel opposition figure amplified in Western forums, despite uncertain domestic support.[14][15][16] - US and allied Iran policy mixes sanctions, information ops, support for exiled media, and military pressure as a long-term weakening strategy—not engagement with any outcome that might produce an independent, nationalist democracy.[17][18][19]
SOURCES:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'%C3%A9tat [2] https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/iran-coup/ [3] https://www.britannica.com/event/1953-coup-in-Iran [4] https://monthlyreview.org/articles/a-defining-moment-the-his... [5] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-first-cia-acknowledges... [6] https://www.npr.org/2019/01/31/690363402/how-the-cia-overthr... [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_e... [8] https://chrissmith.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2006.03.02_united... [9] https://carnegie.ru/2006/05/18/coping-with-hamas-event-885 [10] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/palestinians-fighting-a... [11] https://www.mei.edu/publications/united-states-and-arab-pro-... [12] https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2011/06/the-united-state... [13] https://www.rienner.com/uploads/5d24e20d30b4f.pdf [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/7/3/son-of-former-sh... [15] https://tomorrowsaffairs.com/how-much-real-support-does-reza... [16] https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-reza-pahlavi [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/5/why-trumps-regim... [18] https://www.hoover.org/research/regime-change-iran-treachero... [19] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/06/03/why-a-us-policy...
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj691w2e840t?post=asset%3A8b0d...
"... there will be plenty of voices around Trump advising him to be careful if he does go down that route. The Trump administration would be careful, because the consequences of regime change would be extremely complex ..."
2) Nobody is asking to "accept Israel's dominance", but dropping the "Destruction of Israel" as one of the main goals of the state would be a quite welcome.
The world does not revolve around Israel, and the less bloody dictators it has (theocratic or not) the better.
"In 1953, the CIA- and MI6-backed 1953 Iranian coup d'état overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company."
Like: yes, I lay a lot of the responsibility for the nightmare state Iranians live in at the hands of Cold War NATO policymakers, for sure, but I don't think it's all that useful as a positive claim of what happened in the 1970s. The US did not support the Ayatollahs.
I didn't say that. It's just that Iran already had a democratically elected government. However there is some truth to the claim that you put in my mouth, that is, you can see that pattern quite often in history. Chile is another example but let's focus on Iran.
I despise the Iranian regime, but knowing what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, I find it quite troubling that people are quite giddy about this as though it's not going to result in many lives lost (many more than what the regime is currently responsible for), and destabilisation of the country.
And given the USA's track record in regime changes, and the issues they have in their own country currently, I don't think the US - nor Israel - have any standing to be carrying out a regime change in another sovereign state.
1. Jolani was propped up by Turkey not Israel, their relations are still tense. E.g. Jolani has been massacring the Druze which are Israel's allies, while Israel-Turkey relations are only getting worse.
Unsure where so many get the idea Israel is excited about an ISIS veterans regime on its border that regularly massacres civilians including on-brand mass rapes, kidnappings, beheadings, cutting hearts out etc
The US had previously imprisoned Jolani and had a 10 million reward on his head until 2024, so, that also doesn't align with your narrative
2. Western governments make sure not to meet the crown prince in a state setting or using high dignities, as to limit their support
3. The Shah government was terrible in some respects but still arguably superior to the current one, in any case hopefully Iranians can find their own new way once they get rid of their current fascist theocracy
4. There is no real evidence that the local revolts are supported by the US or Israel. It is naturally the regime propaganda stance as authoritarian regimes usually turn the blame outwards rather than face their failures (environmental disaster, raging inflation, sanctions, complete regional defeat, unwanted religious laws)
5. Not many dictators in the region historically "accepted Israel's dominance" so I don't think you have many supporting points for your sweeping statements
Perhaps because they openly provided support to them for years: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-...
Israel more pressing Islamist threat, Hezbollah, was the focus back then and therefore these organizations were given medical help in turn for agreeing not to kill Druze and to stay away from the Israeli border.
It was quite evident Israel's position as it hasn't tried to fight for Al Nusra when Assad recaptured that area even though it could easily make the Syrian regime forces retreat.
Also, the repeated bombing of the current syrian government forces are probably not due to some outbursting friendship
Probably accurate, but I think if Israel sincerely objected to Jolani's leadership in Syria, a state visit to the White House would not have happened.
Read into that what you will.
Criticism of Western liberalism is not one of them.
Downvoted!
Iran hasn't threatened to destroy, they have made it their stated mission to "annihilate" Israel. I doubt Israel would have any ill-will towards Iran if Iran didn't first say that about Israel.
This, for the most part, is self inflicted by the Iranian regime.
And I'm not talking about university. I'm talking about the hoards of kids that want to play Roblox. It's been a nightmare keeping my kids off of it but I continue to fight the online lifestyle! </sarcasm>
"Bitchat for Gaza – messaging without internet"
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45929358 14-nov-2025 292 comments
Perhaps also other such apps like Briar, Birdy, Meshtastic/Meshcore ?
1. The jamming/disruption is local to large cities most notably the capital, Tehran.
2. Even in Tehran it is not complete and my friends are able to send and receive messages. Uploading videos is harder.
3. The regime is now raiding homes that they suspect have Starlink terminals. I don't know how they identify them but I do wonder if they are using technology to locate them.
Interesting thing is that they say they never seen such a beautiful country with even more beautiful people. Also they said they filled up two full car tanks for ~5€.
Their conclusion is that people there live much better life(more fulfilling) then people in western countries.
ukblewis•4h ago
bpt3•4h ago