they're trying to compare at iso-power? I just want to see their box vs a box of 8 h100s b/c that's what people would buy instead, and they can divide tokens and watts if that's the pitch.
I think Llama 3 focus mostly reflects demand. It may be hard to believe, but many people aren't even aware gpt-oss exists.
The 8B models are easier to run on an RTX to compare it to local inference. What llama does on an RTX 5080 at 40t/s, Furiosa should do at 40,000t/s or whatever… it’s an easy way to have a flat comparison across all the different hardware llama.cpp runs on.
It still kind of makes the point that you are stuck with a very limited range of models that they are hand implementing. But at least it's a model I would actually use. Give me that in a box I can put in a standard data center with normal power supply and I'm definitely interested.
But I want to know the cost :-)
Targeting power, cooling, and TCO limits for inference is real, especially in air-cooled data centers.
But the benchmarks shown are narrow, and it’s unclear how well this generalizes across models and mixed production workloads. GPUs are inefficient here, but their flexibility still matters.
Seems like it would obviously be in TSMCs interest to give preferential taping to nvidia competitors, they benefit from having a less consolidated customer base bidding up their prices.
The story with Intel around these times was usually that AMD or Cyrix or ARM or Apple or someone else would come around with a new architecture that was a clear generation jump past Intel's, and most importantly seemed to break the thermal and power ceilings of the Intel generation (at which point Intel typically fired their chip design group, hired everyone from AMD or whoever, and came out with Core or whatever). Nvidia effectively has no competition, or hasn't had any - nobody's actually broken the CUDA moat, so neither Intel nor AMD nor anyone else is really competing for the datacenter space, so they haven't faced any actual competitive pressure against things like power draws in the multi-kilowatt range for the Blackwells.
The reason this matters is that LLMs are incredibly nifty often useful tools that are not AGI and also seem to be hitting a scaling wall, and the only way to make the economics of, eg, a Blackwell-powered datacenter make sense is to assume that the entire economy is going to be running on it, as opposed to some useful tools and some improved interfaces. Otherwise, the investment numbers just don't make sense - the gap between what we see on the ground of how LLMs are used and the real but limited value add they can provide and the actual full cost of providing that service with a brand new single-purpose "AI datacenter" is just too great.
So this is a press release, but any time I see something that looks like an actual new hardware architecture for inference, and especially one that doesn't require building a new building or solving nuclear fusion, I'll take it as a good sign. I like LLMs, I've gotten a lot of value out of them, but nothing about the industry's finances add up right now.
The acquisitions do. Remember Groq?
Nothing about the industry’s finances, or about Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances?
I look at the list of providers on OpenRouter for open models, and I don’t believe all of them are losing money. FWIW Anthropic claims (iirc) that they don’t lose money on inference. So I don’t think the industry or the model of selling inference is what’s in trouble there.
I am much more skeptical of Anthropic and OpenAI’s business model of spending gigantic sums on generating proprietary models. Latest Claude and GPT are very very good, but not better enough than the competition to justify the cash spend. It feels unlikely that anyone is gonna “winner takes all” the market at this point. I don’t see how Anthropic or OpenAI’s business model survive as independent entities, or how current owners don’t take a gigantic haircut, other than by Sam Altman managing to do something insane like reverse acquiring Oracle.
EDIT: also feels like Musk has shown how shallow the moat is. With enough cash and access to exceptional engineers, you can magic a frontier model out of the ether, however much of a douche you are.
As for the business side, I’ve yet to hear of a transformative business outcome due to LLMs (it will come, but not there yet). It’s only the guys selling the shovels that are making money.
This entire market runs on sovereign funds and cyclical investing. It’s crazy.
I don't know who needs to hear this, but the real break through in AI that we have had is not LLMs, but generative AI. LLM is but one specific case. Furthermore, we have hit absolutely no walls. Go download a model from Jan 2024, another from Jan 2025 and one from this year and compare. The difference is exponential in how well they have gotten.
Not likely since TSMC has a new process with big gains.
> The story with Intel
Was that their fab couldn’t keep up not designs.
Based on what?
Their measured performance on things people care about keep going up, and their software stack keeps getting better and unlocking more performance on existing hardware
Inference tests: https://inferencemax.semianalysis.com/
Training tests: https://www.lightly.ai/blog/nvidia-b200-vs-h100
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/mi300x-vs-h100-vs-h200... (only H100, but vs AMD)
> but nothing about the industry's finances add up right now
Is that based just on the HN "it is lots of money so it can't possibly make sense" wisdom? Because the released numbers seem to indicate that inference providers and Anthropic are doing pretty well, and that OpenAI is really only losing money on inference because of the free ChatGPT usage.
Further, I'm sure most people heard the mention of an unnamed enterprise paying Anthropic $5000/month per developer on inference(!!) If a company if that cost insensitive is there any reason why Anthropic would bother to subsidize them?
Maybe they are cheap.
grosswait•1h ago
sanxiyn•31m ago