If you are confident that you can reach arbitrary judgments in about 1% of all cases, maybe via corruption, political influence or just random arbitrariness of court decisions, would this mean the expected value of this suit is approximately 1.3B usd minus ~10m legal fees?
fakedang•2w ago
Yes and in this case, it's not even that much an arbitrary judgement. I don't like the man but Musk has far more standing to go against Microsoft and OpenAI because the shenanigans they pulled were just that much more brazen.
otterley•2w ago
IAAL (not legal advice) and find your comment confusing: first, because standing is a question of whether you can even have your complaint heard by a court; and second, because “brazenness” doesn’t necessarily make a case stronger.
jondwillis•2w ago
Well there’s potential counter suit or court order to pay legal fees of the other party that might affect the profitability. I am not a lawyer
nutjob2•2w ago
No because penalty amounts are routinely slashed to a tiny fraction of the original claim.
refurb•2w ago
Expected value calculations are terrible unless applied to a situation of hundreds or thousands of outcomes.
Otherwise you be stupid NOT to buy a lottery ticket each week.
moralestapia•2w ago
The expected value of a lottery ticket is lower than its nominal value, for obvious reasons.
I agree with your point, though.
KellyCriterion•2w ago
Well, the US legal system is that broken, I see him with high chances of winning, somehow? (like "we give you 50% of what you are asking for but shut up now")
rand846633•2w ago
fakedang•2w ago
otterley•2w ago
jondwillis•2w ago
nutjob2•2w ago
refurb•2w ago
Otherwise you be stupid NOT to buy a lottery ticket each week.
moralestapia•2w ago
I agree with your point, though.