If you are confident that you can reach arbitrary judgments in about 1% of all cases, maybe via corruption, political influence or just random arbitrariness of court decisions, would this mean the expected value of this suit is approximately 1.3B usd minus ~10m legal fees?

Well, the US legal system is that broken, I see him with high chances of winning, somehow? (like "we give you 50% of what you are asking for but shut up now")

Altman's tweet on the subject seems to present some factual difficulties for Musk https://x.com/sama/status/2012271781394989327

For comparison purposes, the defendants should argue the valuation is what it is because musk is not in it. Consequently at worst it's a few millions.