Edit: Yes, I am being sarcastic.
Is that a lot? Seems relatively inconsequential in the grand scheme of things, but perhaps a warning of larger moves to come.
So a drop in the bucket, but we’ll have to see if it’s a domino.
I can't find the program name at the moment, but the Treasury plans for situations like this regularly.
For attacking allies?
I know that’s not what you meant but we must be pushing up against scenarios that haven’t been considered possible.
how about at the companies that supply that grocery store?
and so on up the chain.
So we need a better metric to evaluate this against. If we look at recent auctions, they typically move around 35-40 billion in 10 year notes and about 25-30 billion in 30 year notes. With the rest being short term.
In 2025, the Treasury issued $30 trillion total over 400 auctions.
So yes, $100MM is not a lot, but it's still three or so auctions worth of bonds. There's also the downstream impacts of this, as the Netherlands is likely no longer buying t-bonds in any form. And this is just one country.
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-cent...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/foreign-h... | https://archive.today/4pfum
Suppose these guys sell 10% of the daily trading volume. How do the traders in the market react? One possibility: Buy at current prices. Another: Speculate that there'll be more sales and the price will drop by a couple of per cent in the coming days/weeks, and delay their buying in order to buy the dip.
I'm sure the Americans have laid plans for how to avoid a major Oops.
Rounding error on a global scale.
Nobody is reducing spending and delivery continues to go down.
The US pays $800B/year to service debt. It pays $800B-$1T/year for the military. What would you like cut that is discretionary? There appears to be no appetite to raise taxes on the wealthy, pay down debt, and reduce military spending. So US credit card go brrr. We’ll hit a debt spiral eventually.
Maybe we’re lucky and adults come back into power, but hope alone is not a strategy. No one is coming to save you, prepare accordingly. I have prepared accordingly to decouple from the US entirely as a citizen, if necessary. It’s regrettable and I have no other solution for those inquiring. You can’t control the winds, but you can adjust your sails. My genuine condolences and sympathies if one cannot escape the US either via income, wealth, or some form of visa (lineage, family, work, etc).
(derived from first principles)
I think you need to call it by its real name.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
You can tell how much care and considering went into if from the name.
Unfortunately most young people don’t realize they are being hoodwinked and so poll extremely supportive of this scheme.
The debt ceiling is literally not a problem at all, unless the US were to do something as monumentally stupid as to stop allowing its GDP to grow through trade, and devalue the US dollar, in which case everybody flees US treasuries, resulting in collapse of value, causing more people to flee UST, etc....
The debt hawks are very wrong about the fundamentals of currency, but they are less dangerous than the war hawks in the White House to the US's economic future.
It's one thing to do a epically stupid invasion of Iraq on faked intelligence, which ally support. It's another thing entirely to invade allies. It will totally end US dominance in the world.
"Thus, it is not directly related to the ongoing rift between the U.S. and Europe, but of course that didn't make it more difficult to take the decision," he added.
quotes from the Reuters article
How do you run a country without taxation? Can you point at an example?
/s
Serious answer: deficit spending and let inflation act as the taxation mechanism.
The approach is tried and true with a small deficit, but surely you need some decent source of revenue to keep the inflation under control.
Not a political decision. Still a bad sign for the US, but not really unexpected.
The whole situation is been caused by a single guy and 400 enablers, whereas the US is a 400 million people country.
The correct form of reaction is a punch in the face during a bilateral meeting, Zelensky came close to doing it but unfortunately he resisted his impulse , that's where the epicenter of all newly generated global problems in the last 10 years lies, in that octogenarian brian of his.
Also, them having elected Trump TWICE, why would they ever be trusted ?
Also when the alternatives are people like.. Hilary Clinton ?
Would she have been worse than this?
And the US had a better choice the second time.
But as you say, was there a worse option? It’s hard to find it.
There's a hell of a lot more than 400 enablers. Every single person who voted for the treasonous traitor orange cheeto enabled this; every single person still supporting him is still an enabler.
We have the modern Nazi party in the USA. Treat it like that.
Conservatism vs. Progressivism will keep raging on for the whole eternity.
Trumpism is for sure made up of the 400 enablers who took control of the bicentennial institution that is the GOP
In reality that one man is backed by half of the US voters, the Republican Party a lot of rich and powerful people, a clear majority of the police forces and an unknown part of the US military.
False. People who say this don’t know that a large percentage of Americans don’t care to vote.
- 9/11
- Iraq War
- Covid
The US did recover a bit deficit-wise in Obama years, but have not reset the fiscal picture from Covid.
The further we get away from that being true, the more precarious things become.
Most other contemporary and historical parallels of authoritarians show far higher popularity of the authoritarian. Trump is nowhere close.
The biggest risk to the US is that the media is completely compromised, as are leadership at many institutions. Even in Silicon Valley, the loudest and most vocal leaders are self-destructively supporting this madness that will destroy the US's wealth, and their future wealth gains too.
You could almost make this case in 2016, but anyone who fell for Trump in 2024 will just fall for the next con man to come along. At some point we have to take responsibility for our own choices and stop blaming the media.
The truth about Trump was out there, and it was not hard to find.
Added here due to rate-limiting:
2024 was right after voters had seen Biden at that debate, while all the "responsible" people insisted he was sharp and smart. It really was more unique than its given credit for.
Both candidates were a disgrace to the parties who propped them up. However, nothing Biden said was any worse than what Trump said about immigrants eating peoples' pet dogs and cats.
At the Biden/Trump debate, the choice was between malevolent, incoherent senility and plain old garden-variety senility, and the voters choose poorly. At the actual election, there were even fewer excuses for voting for Trump, as Biden was no longer in play.
Put another way, if someone asked you to estimate what the split between the one third of the population that didn't vote was, what would you use as a reference point? Social media posts? Vibes? Or maybe polls leading up to the vote that showed the same roughly 50-50 split found in the actual results?
Unfortunately, my understanding based on reported surveys [1] is that if the non-voters had voted, Trump's margin of victory would have been even greater. If that's the case, then those who say that my 1/3 figure is too low are correct.
1: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/26/2024-election-turno...
Nazis did it in Germany. They lost parliamentary seats in the November 1932 election, but remained the largest party with 33% of seats. The next year the country was already a dictatorship.
Communists did it in Czhechoslovakia in 1948. They led a coalition government but had just lost the previous election.
I'm worried that United States 2027 will be added to this list. If MAGA sees their grip on power starting to fade after November elections, they may try increasingly extreme measures.
All the people complaining about "US Debt" and $26T of "net investment" or whatever don't realize that this is/was the benefit of the US being stable, strong, and friendly.
When the US is unstable, weak, and a bully, as it is now, all that goes away. The bill comes due, and the US will pay dearly. The rest of the world will pay nothing.
Just because the US changes political direction, that doesn't equate to instability. Its aims are changing, like it or not, good or bad. The US deciding it wants Greenland is not a proof of instability, it's a change in the strategic goals held by the people controlling the superpower.
And the US is at a high level of strength, not weakness. Its large corporations hold sway over the globe in a manner the likes of which has never been seen before in modern history. Its military has force projection to nearly every point on the globe, with hundreds of global military bases. Its national wealth is at an all-time high. Its stock markets are at all-time highs. Its median income is at an all-time high. Its median disposable income is at an all-time high. Its housing wealth is at an all-time high.
Then why is everyone so damned unhappy all the time?
That has changed dramatically in the past few decades and with it, places where Americans can find common ground.
Other western countries are going down the exact same path, just a bit behind us.
No, homogeneity doesn't cause happiness.[1] And the US was always less homogenous than other "western" countries.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_in_Japan#Suicide_proble...
this is satire right?
the UK's system is close to 1000 years old
I doubt the current US system will last another decade
> with hundreds of global military bases
all of which will evaporate the moment it does anything to Greenland
no, it's evolved continuously from 1066
by the time of the US rebellion, the king was already neutered
> their first PM was in the 18th century.
the title of "Prime Minister" is a modern invention
a constitutionally limited monarchy is older than the US
meanwhile the modern US seems to be a absolute monarchy that isn't constitutionally limited
Eh?
If the US political system was stable and fit for purpose, the US would have got rid of the wannabe dictator by now; or at least held his power in check.
This is in part because other countries allow American countries to come in and take over markets.
If its going to be like this the rest of the world might as well cut its losses
And which is harder? Bringing back production to satiate domestic demand or increasing domestic demand? Historically, demand deficiency is much harder to restore.
Most of the US borrowing is domestic, very little of it is now foreign. No foreign entity can afford to absorb $2 trillion of new paper every year. That's equal to the total holdings of China + Japan. Going forward you might as well regard all US Govt borrowing as domestic, as that will essentially be the case given the scale. The UK holds $885b of treasuries, what are they going to buy annually that will make a difference at this point?
Every nation has a limitless ability to borrow internally via currency debasement, with obvious consequences. That USD debasement is why gold has gone up 10x in 20 years when priced in dollars. It's why healthcare and housing is so expensive - when priced in dollars. Cash pushed into gold in 2005, $100k, would now buy you a million dollar house. It's the dollar of course that has been hammered (among other currencies, the Euro has not done well against gold either).
The US won't stop being able to debase its currency and buy its own debt. What the US is doing is eating its hand. If it continues to get worse, it moves on to eating its arm, and so on (the US is de facto consuming its national wealth through stealth confiscation via currency destruction, rather than paying the bills with taxation directly).
Mechanically, "they" being sovereign banks serve as price-insensitive marginal buyers that close treasury auctions regardless of price because they buy treasury for storage/liquidity. VS domestic buyers (hedgefund insurance), who are price sensitive = raise rates to attract discriminate buyers who buy for yield/valuation = worse debt servicing = faster debasing. Foreign sovereign buyers still play governor role in making sure domestic buyers get a shit none-market deal, i.e. US gov gets a good deal which moderates velocity of debasing. Of course past certain level of debt brrrting, the ability for sovereign buyers to absorb is compromised, in which case it makes sense for US to fuck foreign buyers over and inflate away as much debt as possible while still reserve currency, i.e. US can inflate/soft default faster than world can unwind. And TBH US will probably be "fine" as long as US can still gunboat diplomacy. If can't be banker, be the mob boss.
It's all a sliding slope until it reaches a breaking point and falls off like a cliff.
EDIT: to quote the Canadian PN earlier today:
“American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ..."
In the Canadian example at least the deal is signed. It's not just words.
> Chinese are our adversaries
Increasingly the US is a European adversary. They are literally threatening to invade the territory of a European country! China isn't doing that.
Very easy to dismiss it as the rantings of a madman but no-one is holding him back. People didn't take the tariff bluster seriously and then it became very real.
But the simpler answer is that Trump seems to personally like the idea of adding a big landmass to the US for ego reasons. He talked about it last term too with the same excuses mostly.
It does not look as if it's serious. But this is a deeply unserious administration, so it's hard to guess.
Does anyone really need to? We're not getting Greenland and everyone knows it, ESPECIALLY the people screeching the most about it. Trump's whole thing is giving the media lots of fresh meat to go wild over so they're distracted. I'm sure it's some sort of Sun Tzu thing he read about and has latched on to.
However, this one in particular is really baffling in that he can't let it go and it just makes everything worse.
> People didn't take the tariff bluster seriously and then it became very real.
I mean, not really? There's been some tariffs here and there but nowhere near what was originally claimed, things have been walked back and forth multiple times, etc. That's really what's caused the most damage, the uncertainty moreso than the actual tariffs. And this is also something he's particular fixated on and I wish he'd drop since it's obvious it's not going to have the intended outcome.
Did USA cause that
No.
Whereas I remember multiple times our allies pillaging and colonizing the country.
Not a fan of their espionage, lack of IP respect and human rights record (albeit we should also look at ourselves on the last one as well). But those are things that could've been challenged democratically through economical levers imho.
The only reason China suddenly became the enemy is because their GDP growth put them as the world's biggest economy in few decades and Washington wasn't happy with this.
I'm sure he does.
But only a fool would piss off the Chinese.
Both in Macron's own country and his region, there will be hundreds of companies who are already cut-off from Russia, Africa, Middle-East and Central Asia due to geopolitics. China doesn't care and is busy selling there.
So what's left is the remainder of Asia, which is China's home turf where they are already ultra-competitive as they have the geographic advantage.
And of course there will be companies in Macron's country and region using Chinese manufacturing or otherwise engaged in Chinese JVs to get access to sell to the Chinese market.
So for Macron to go full-Trump on China would be a textbook case of cutting your nose to spite your face. The Chinese are masters at playing the long game and the West needs to be careful about knee-jerk short-termism actions.
Quebec is famous for the "Quebec Special". Cars with manual everything. No AC. Manual windows. Completely stripped down to be as affordable/disposable as possible. Also the roads are absolute shit, they never wash off the salt, there used to be no inspections and title-washing is common practice there.
Everything I said about the roads and title washing still applies.
> AkademikerPension has in total 164 billion Danish crowns ($25.74 billion)
So they are moving about 0.4% of their investment.
Not pure symbolism, but $100 million is really nothing when we're talking about US treasuries. In the past decade, China has reduced their holding by about $600B.
BlackRock CEO delivers blunt warning on US national debt - https://www.thestreet.com/investing/blackrock-ceo-delivers-b... - January 18th, 2026
The U.S. Deficit Will 'Overwhelm This Country': BlackRock CEO Larry Fink - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4d1GzgnhkI
Nearly 40% of Young Americans Say Political Violence Is Acceptable in Certain Circumstances, Harvard Poll Finds - https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/4/hpop-poll-polit... - December 4th, 2025
Americans say politically motivated violence is increasing, and they see many reasons why - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/23/americans... - October 23rd, 2025
Be wary of normalcy bias, it's a big part of what lets the Trump admin get away with what its doing. People think "oh that can't happen"... until it does.
The MN governor has called up their National Guard to help local law enforcement. The Pentagon is readying troops as well, presumably to help federal officials (ICE).
If both sides think they are following lawful orders, and neither side will give, what do you think will happen? (I have no answers.)
Further, there are folks that want a conflict because the West has become too decadent or something, and some conflict is needed to toughen up (?):
There will not be civil war unless the military truly comes to assist in a Trump attempt to take power in 2028, which I think is very unlikely.
I very much hope civil war is unlikely, but the federal government is vastly undermanned if a conflict occurs on US soil.
(have four siblings who have decades in combined military tours across all service branches except the coast guard, and I leverage them as a resource collectively in these matters)
[1] https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers
[2] https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-m...
[3] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-...
When your material needs are satisfied then only ideological battles remain to be won.
And having lots of material stuff you have plenty to throw at the enemy.
It's already happening. People are willing to forego their material needs and harm the country and themselves to 'own' and defeat the other side.
The only hope is that the ideological wars become so scattered and around so many topics and centers of power that it's not 70m people vs. 70m people or that the ideological wars are slow and so people realize the loss of quality of life and material wealth and rebalance towards the latter instead of pursuing the 'owning the other side' doctrine
So do you believe him? Let me guess: you'll pick and choose the parts
Global markets outperform the U.S. in 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DERutj8lfY - December 30th, 2025
2026 Outlook: International Stocks and Economy - https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/international-stock-marke... - December 9th, 2025
(not investing advice, I am simply very curious and a degenerate gambler)
But I am sure the poster you are responding to was criticizing the take about US splintering into parts due to armed unrest within the next 5 years. Which sounds completely nonsensical to me as well.
I'd argue we've never been closer to civil war than we are today[0], primarily due to trumps regime invading cities around the country, kidnapping citizens utilizing a bounty program, and killing people in concentration camps.
Ediot: [0] - Since the last civil war. I thought that was obvious, but it seems like it isn't.
A new civil war that drives the US to fragment into several independent regions over the course of the next ~five years would kind of be the best scenario from a global perspective.
is nutty.
The closest the U.S. is to a Civil War now is akin to a Cold Civil War with, for example, states gerrymandering their Representative districts. Or the Pacific states joining together for West Coast Health Alliance. Did I read rumblings about separate trade deals with foreign countries?
You are skeptical that it was written by an American, but you have no proof that it was not?
Do you know who did write it?
Those guys in the Whitehouse, are they not American?
They are the ones steering you straight off a cliff and quite literally anything - including civil war - could happen as a result of that.
> you have no proof that it was not?
In other comments on their profile, they refer to Americans as if they are someone other than themselves. Also, the belief that a civil war splitting up the US is likely within the next 5 years seems like a pretty big giveaway.
> Those guys in the Whitehouse, are they not American?
As I said, multiple people can want bad things. I'm painfully aware of what the current admin is doing to our global reputation and what they are risking with their current games - and there are still 3 years on the clock.
Take care.
The US isn't going to passively give up its hold on the world order. You don't think this would trigger a world war?
And if / when the US does topple (whether in 10 years or in 1000 years), at the moment it looks like the only viable next leaders in the world order are autocratic dictatorships.
How is this a best scenario from a global perspective?
They are literally right in the middle of imploding their soft power; so maybe you are right about passively giving it up when they're actively doing so instead?
No, instead they're actively throwing it on a bonfire.
No, I don't know why either.
Do you remember the situation that precipitated the Nazi takeover of Germany? Wasn't it hyperinflation and economic collapse? And you think it would be a good idea to push the US further in that direction?
You'll get worse, not better.
> A new civil war that drives the US to fragment into several independent regions over the course of the next ~five years would kind of be the best scenario from a global perspective.
Are you serious? That's an utterly insane idea. The best scenario from a global perspective is the US regains its stability. Europe is in no position to defend itself militarily, it relies on US support via NATO. I believe similar is true of Japan and other countries. A US civil war would only help Russia and China (Russia would gobble up Ukraine and who knows what else, China would take Taiwan and dominate/subjugate the rest of Asia, like Japan, in some fashion that non-Chinese nations wouldn't be happy with).
Also US polarization isn't regional (e.g. a big part is urban/rural). There's no "fragmentation into independent regions" that would really solve the problem.
Like, we're all amateurs on a web forum, but it's best to avoid monomaniacal, first-order thinking.
If you honestly believe that the EU wants the US to descend into civil war then you you have your parties grossly mixed up.
Which is exactly what this administration is doing. What do you think happens when the POTUS and DOJ overtly pressure the sitting Chairman of the Federal Reserve to cut Fed Funds rates and print more money, thus creating more inflation in direct violation of a crystal-clear Congressional mandate? Do you think that's good for the U.S. as a destination for safe assets, or a "reserve currency"?
It's not. This is where the financial rubber meets the road, actions have consequences, and the rest of the world is looking at the US as increasingly unlikely to pay above inflation on its debts.
The people managing the pension funds (if they are acting in good faith) really want to generate yield, and really want to preserve capital for the Danish people. They don't want to symbolically do those things, they want to actually do them. If treasuries were still part of what they believe to be the best strategy, they would still be holding them.
Inflation may spirale, but it's going to be a US citizens problems (as well as US bond holders).
Trying to inflate away 40+ Trillion in debt would directly result in hyperinflation.
> they debased the Yen to garbage levels
Look at Yen to USD exchange rates and it’s clear they didn’t. “From 1991 to 2003, the Japanese economy, as measured by GDP, grew only 1.14% annually, while the average real growth rate between 2000 and 2010 was about 1%,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades Meanwhile the USD exchange rate in Jan 1988 was 127 vs 140 in 1998 vs 107 in 2008. It went up and down all through the 20 years of poor economic growth, but something else was clearly the issue.
The exchange rate of the yen has dropped recently by a lot, but the inflation experience there has been the exact opposite of America's.
NATO is critical for the European powers (those not named Russia). The US doesn't require it. The US doesn't need to defend Europe any longer. And it's clear the Europeans don't want the US there, so it works out great. Europe can boost its defense spending by ~$300 billion to make up the difference, or not, whatever they choose to do is up to them.
The US had the world's largest economy six decades before NATO existed. China is growing into a superpower entirely without a NATO-like participation. NATO is primarily beneficial to European stability. The US doesn't need NATO to defend itself at all.
The EU has chosen to try to cooperate rather than to be at war all the time and it looks like that may have been a wrong bet but that is mostly because first one (Russia) and now another (USA) party have reneged on the deals that were in place.
If US pulls back from NATO, and Europe builds up military power to compensate, then the US loses this de facto leadership seat of an empire.
Today, the US appears in parallel to be doing two things:
1. Causing fragmentation in Europe, by promoting right-wing nationalist politics in the EU
2. Threatening to drastically reduce their role in NATO
At the very least we can both agree that these two efforts are completely in contradiction with each other, and it's very unlikely that Europeans will want to go for more fragmentation without the military power of the US on their side, right?
To be pedantic, Canada is a major non-European NATO member.
And then there are allies, some of them designated by Trump:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally
Or, they were, as there is no certainty under his rule.
Until Trump says he's going to, then his boosters will declare its a genius maneuver and actually its Joe Biden's fault (Joe made him do it!)
Did you forget that the one and only Article 5 call to date on NATO to members was by the USA following 9/11?
But I'm sure he would not do anything crazy. That's just inconceivable.
A year or two of NATO countries increased contribution doesn't make up for decades of underinvestment ripoffs.
Ergo, they increasingly do not want to hold that debt.
Yet here we are.
There an interesting analysis on whether the EUs threats on financial markets actually bear any meaning here:
https://x.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/status/2013314168250675456
Edit: March 2022 peace deal that Boris Johnson sabotaged
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/...
This whole thing is due to one country not playing by the rulebook because they think they're big enough to fuck over the world. Guess what? No single country is big enough for that. Trump is way out of his depth when it comes to statesmanship and has replaced it with brinkmanship, that's not a valid substitute unless what you're looking for a a disaster.
[0] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch...
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukr...
[2] - https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/_t2515/57/f8/c21257a743416/page.ht...
At the end of the day China cares more about Europe than Russia. Because that's where the real money is.
The EU signing an FTA with India on Jan 27th is also a negative sign for China-EU relations.
China needs to keep close ties with Russia due to national security interests in Central Asia and North Korea. Additionally, Russia maintains its autonomy by retaining military and economic ties with India and military deployments and listening bases in Vietnam and North Korea, which adds pressure on China to have to collaborate with Russia.
> ...counterweight to the US...
Chinese foreign policy is almost entirely viewed through the lens of the US-China rivalry. Europeans underestimate this to their peril. And to China, an unaligned Europe is still not pro-China enough.
> Beijing did not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing
How does this statement make sense though? I don't see the A -> B. The US pretty clearly does not want to see a Russian loss either, and seems more fine with Ukraine losing.
It should depends on how much the US wants Europe?
If the US does not want more of Europe, and Russia wins, the US could let Russia take over Europe -> focus shifts to China.
If the US wants more of Europe, and Russia wins -> focus would be off China.
If the US does not want more of Europe, and Russia loses -> it's mostly whatever, but perhaps focus shifts to China.
If the US wants more of Europe, and Russia loses -> focus would be off China.
Perhaps I'm just really daft.
Despite Trump, the US (and rivals of China like South Korea and Japan) have continued to supply the Ukrainian armed forces and their allies like Poland.
A protracted Russia-Ukraine War with the balance of power in favor of Russia means the US, SK, and JP remain bogged supplying Ukraine and it's allies like Poland and Romania, instead of diverting stock to the Asian front.
China and Russia are increasingly collaborating to respond against Japan should a conflict occur [0]
> It should depends on how much the US wants Europe?
The issue is both the US and China view the EU as a regional power that can be pushed around - not as an entity that can retain strategic autonomy.
This is the crux of the EU's current diplomatic malaise - neither the US nor China view the EU as an equal, but rather, as a junior partner.
> Perhaps I'm just really daft
I won't say daft, but the issue is Europeans view themselves as being deserving of being on the same table as the Americans and Chinese. Neither the Americans or Chinese see it that way now.
In order for the EU to build strategic autonomy, some very painful steps need to be taken which simply aren't being taken (as Draghi pessimistically pointed out a couple months ago) [1].
Additionally, periphery regions of the EU have increasingly started operating independently of the rest of the EU - as with China's CSPs with Spain [2] and Hungary [3] and India's defense alliances with Cyprus+Greece against Turkiye [4] - so a unified EU response is steadily degrading as members decide to take defense matters into their own hands.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukr...
[1] - https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20250916-mario...
[2] - http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm
[3] - https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83...
[4] - https://www.bankingnews.gr/amyna-diplomatia/articles/851003/...
It's hard to see any country wanting to get into conventional war with China, regardless of size of army and airforce - even the US is not going to do it unless actually attacked. At the end of the day if China seizes Taiwan (something Trump has made more likely by his seizing of Venezuala, now talking about Greenland, Cuba ..), then the US will just complain, create trade sanctions and/or tarrifs etc.
--Ernest Hemingway
It might very well be that the USA will face a period of high inflation soon if we continue down this path of high government spending and no independent central bank to put a break on it.
And I can't even understand why this obsession of lowering interest rates in the USA. The economy is doing great, there's no shortage of investment money going around. There's really no reason to lower in the interest rates before we tackle the leftover inflation that still comes from the COVID measures.
It's Trump's personal insecurities playing again and not allowing anyone to tell him "no". What a child.
"How did you go bankrupt?"
"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
* https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/102579-how-did-you-go-bankr...
Macron has also said that he wants no part of Trump's (billion dollar entrance fee) "peace board" that he's going to be pushing at Davos.
A divorce from the USA would certainly hurt Europe, but it will also hurt the USA and it's ability to defend itself if it loses access to European intelligence and ability to have forward located military bases and refueling locations.
The Republican's are really shooting themselves, and the US, in the foot here by not standing up to Trump and therefore indicating that all this craziness is Trump rather than an enduring US policy that they support. Even if they flip flop when Trump is out of office, the rest of the world is never going to trust the US again.
I get it: Trump is a degenerate person, not a role model, and extremely brash, but people's hate for him has completely blinded them of basic reasoning. No, Trump is not Hitler or anything remotely close.
As Americans, we need to stop calling every political opponent that we disagree with Hitler.
Liar and scoundrel. Opinion polls suggest 85% of Greenlanders oppose the territory joining the US.
Without the G7 piling up dollars, there is no American exceptionalism.
Just impeach the guy already. His mental capabilities aren’t far off Biden’s at the end.
Mind you I'm a small investor (my portfolio is 100k-ish euros). I'm still exposed to US securities through ETFs though, as I have 3 different ones holding US companies, but that I ain't gonna sell them.
But for new capital I may as well provide it to others.
“I’m a real estate developer, I look at a corner, I say, ‘I’ve got to get that store for the building that I’m building,’ etc. It’s not that different. I love maps. And I always said: ‘Look at the size of this. It’s massive. That should be part of the United States.’”
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/us/politics/trump-greenla...
The US imports a lot from Mexico, 15.5% of the total $3.36 trillion of US import, right here in the Americas. The EU about imports are about 18.5%.
Merz's mother-of-all-deals needs to have India lower its imposed tariffs on Germany of 100-150% on autos, which would cut against India if the new FTA goes through by Q2 2026.
May you live in interesting times is a wish or curse coming to fruition...
If this pace keeps up for 10 years I don’t see how methane will be useful in the energy sector. Let’s face it, we’re investing in a dying industry. In 20 years our kids (or grandkids) will laugh at any country burning methane to make electricity.
The Roosevelt Corollary stated likewise the US would police any Latin American country's mismanagement.
Yet, all these people are proclaiming a certain person a warmonger instead of completely in line with historical US policy.
adrr•1h ago
petcat•1h ago
deadbabe•1h ago
sonotathrowaway•1h ago
petcat•1h ago
estearum•1h ago
Mordisquitos•57m ago
CamperBob2•54m ago
When $100M in armaments can take out a $10000M carrier, it's time to rethink things.
epistasis•1h ago
Really curious what your reasoning is here.
mythical_39•1h ago
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/17/nx-s1-5680167/major-plumbing-...
actionfromafar•52m ago
jansper39•48m ago
sekai•41m ago
US Navy would have have no parking spots left in Europe if they try to annex Greenland.
basilgohar•1h ago
drstewart•1h ago
saubeidl•1h ago
woooooo•46m ago
cratermoon•1h ago
shermantanktop•58m ago
CamperBob2•56m ago
WarmWash•1h ago
vdupras•1h ago
pixelpoet•59m ago
HN seems totally fine with this behaviour too, also super reassuring.
woooooo•45m ago
LunaSea•54m ago
drstewart•50m ago
causalscience•39m ago
drstewart•6m ago
jimnotgym•1h ago
throwway120385•1h ago
dpc050505•43m ago
shermantanktop•1h ago
Now that we really do have a destructive realignment underway, maybe gold will actually be useful again. I doubt it, but I’m no currency expert.
diggyhole•1h ago
fisherjeff•54m ago
neilwilson•1h ago
And that’s definitely going to upset the gold bugs.
(In reality lots of things are held in reserve)
USD is a routing currency that is used because it is cheaper than the mesh alternative. When it stops being cheaper whoever is then cheapest will get the routing transactions.
Archelaos•1h ago
shimman•1h ago
KPGv2•55m ago
NoboruWataya•1h ago
Ekaros•1h ago
If there is need you can now build very complicated systems as everything is digital anyway.
Maybe stable coins would be finally useful. Each currency has own stable coin and then they are automatically traded in massive market... /s
tinfoilhatter•1h ago
We've been printing pretend money for quite some time, and supressing the value of precious metals (which is why you're now seeing silver bullion sell for $100+ an ounce). Copper is also selling out now.
These precious metals are extremely valuable because they're used to manufacture all of the technology consumers and nation states rely on daily. We're going to see a regression towards mercantilism and commodity hoarding. Most likely fiat will be abandoned in favor of crypto as we enter a new era of hyperinflation.
Buckle up - 2026 is going to be a wild ride.
traceroute66•1h ago
It is not necessarily a question of "takes its place", but more about being more serious about diversification. Or to paraphrase the old IBM saying "nobody got fired for buying USD" is no longer the case.
In terms of options you have JPY, EUR and CNY as the big-three and maybe tag AUD on top.
axus•59m ago
mywittyname•50m ago
For the USA - massive inflation. All of those dollars are coming back home, which will weaken the dollar.
Plus, there's the second-order effects from a president taking control of the fed by trumping up charges on its members. So high inflation + low/zero/negative interest rates.
corimaith•15m ago
Anybody who can (EU, Yuan) does not want to. Primairly because as export based economies, they want a weak currency in relation to a strong reserve (dollar) so they can make their goods more competitive, and also because surplus naturally appreciates a currency without central bank intervention via buying US treasuries to offset the appreciation. And for China, they're not going to accept the liberalized capital controls neede for it either.
So the answer is if the US dollars fail it would be global economic collapse and then chaos, but contrary to the rhetoric the rest of the world's economic systems are too uniquely vested in the USD to see it fail. As for gold, well we come to the same problem as noted above but worse, and in that situation the US actually holds the highest gold reserves so they still benefit the most out of it.
jlarocco•7m ago
In the past it made things easier for everybody to use the same currency, but is that still the case with modern electronic transactions?
Maybe it splinters into Euro, BRICS, and USD?