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Show HN: Debugging conflicting U.S. sexual behavior surveys

https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/jcdbm_v2
2•joshuafkon•1h ago
I'm the author of a new preprint that tries to resolve why major U.S. sexual behavior surveys appeared to report contradictory trends over the past decade. The key move is separating never-occurrence from temporary inactivity among the experienced, rather than averaging them together. That decomposition is applied symmetrically across surveys and validated against an independent dataset. The paper then treats the remaining discrepancy as a debugging problem: • check distributions for digit heaping and compression • look for stock–flow reversals consistent with under-reporting • compare adjacent survey waves for internal consistency • cross-validate against an external series not subject to the same reporting incentives Once those diagnostics are applied, the conflicting results reconcile cleanly. This is a methods/measurement paper, not a causal one. The contribution is showing how small reporting artifacts and aggregation choices can produce large apparent disagreements—even in high-quality surveys—when they aren't handled carefully. (One note for the methodologically inclined: conditioning on "sexually experienced" looks like it could induce collider bias. Section 4 and Appendix D5 address this directly—the gender gap in sexual debut didn't change differentially, so selection into the analysis sample is symmetric.) Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/jcdbm_v2 Replication code: https://github.com/Joshfkon/ResearchPaper_PartnershipGap Happy to discuss the diagnostics, decomposition logic, or limitations.

Environmentalists worry Google behind bid to control Oregon town's water

https://www.sfgate.com/national-parks/article/mount-hood-water-google-21307223.php
1•voxadam•3m ago•0 comments

Gemini team, please add URL query parameter support (?q= or?prompt=)

1•hiddenest•9m ago•0 comments

A New Hardware Class of 2026

https://www.recordsofthought.com/signal-to-source
1•colinprince•11m ago•0 comments

The Atelier: Craft, Code, and the Coming Guild

https://jamesmunsch.com/words/2026-01-18-the-atelier--craft--code--and-the-coming-guild.html
1•b1n•11m ago•1 comments

Show HN: WhyThere – Compare cities side-by-side to decide where to move

https://whythere.life
1•daversa•12m ago•0 comments

We built an AI coding tool that stores nothing on our servers

https://shakespeare.diy
3•ravenbitcoin•14m ago•2 comments

Central Banks Hit Next Stage in Cross-Border Payment Project

https://www.pymnts.com/news/cross-border-commerce/cross-border-payments/2026/central-banks-hit-ne...
1•shorsher•19m ago•0 comments

NukeCast: If it happened today, where would the fallout go

https://nukecast.com/
1•todd_tracerlab•22m ago•1 comments

Loki Mode: Autonomous System for Claude, Codex and Gemini CLI

https://github.com/asklokesh/loki-mode
1•slogansand•23m ago•2 comments

Don't Wait Until the Midterms. Act Now: FeedbackFridays

4•peerless-app•23m ago•0 comments

Windows 11's Patch Tuesday nightmare: Microsoft says some PCs might not boot

https://www.windowscentral.com/microsoft/windows-11/windows-11s-botched-patch-tuesday-update-nigh...
2•speckx•31m ago•0 comments

It Was One Guy

https://dannyman.toldme.com/2026/01/26/it-was-one-guy/
2•saulpw•34m ago•0 comments

The pandemic's hidden toll: chronic conditions left undiagnosed

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-01-pandemic-hidden-toll-millions-chronic.html
1•WaitWaitWha•35m ago•0 comments

Japan Bond Crash Unleashes a $7T Risk for Global Markets

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-25/japan-bond-market-crash-raises-alarm-for-globa...
2•zerosizedweasle•36m ago•0 comments

Doghot369

https://doghot.app/
1•jdojsinfn•39m ago•0 comments

Tech CEOs attend Amazon-funded "Melania" screening at White House

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/white-house-vip-melania-screening-mike-tyson-...
20•camillomiller•39m ago•8 comments

Preparing Investigators for Trauma Exposure in Digital Forensics

https://www.forensicfocus.com/podcast/preparing-investigators-for-trauma-exposure-in-digital-fore...
1•WaitWaitWha•40m ago•0 comments

ChatGPT Is Pulling Answers from Elon Musk's Grokipedia

https://techputs.com/chatgpt-pulling-answers-from-grokipedia/
1•voxadam•43m ago•0 comments

Werewolf Romance 101: quick trope map and what to watch for

1•XiayMu•51m ago•0 comments

Ted Chiang and What it is like to be an A.I

https://jonathantdneil.substack.com/p/ted-chiang-and-what-it-is-like-to
1•hkhn•56m ago•0 comments

Yarbo autonomous snow blower clearing driveway during storm

https://twitter.com/tommolog/status/2015450792065376656
1•ChrisArchitect•57m ago•0 comments

Compiled Node.js 18 from source on jailbroken iPhone to run Claude Code

1•BryanTheCynic•57m ago•0 comments

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

https://www.lightspeedmagazine.com/fiction/exhalation/
2•hkhn•58m ago•1 comments

Demand Accountability. Impeach Trump. Again

https://www.impeachtrumpagain.org
6•hkhn•1h ago•0 comments

You can just port things to Cloudflare Workers

https://sigh.dev/posts/you-can-just-port-things-to-cloudflare-workers/
1•STRiDEX•1h ago•0 comments

SF Microclimates

https://microclimates.solofounders.com/
1•rmason•1h ago•0 comments

The Cathedral, the Bazaar and the Workshop

https://jamesmunsch.com/words/2026-01-18-the-atelier--craft--code--and-the-coming-guild.html#the-...
1•b1n•1h ago•2 comments

Reflections on Video Game Retail from 1992-1997

https://huguesjohnson.com/features/loser_phase/
1•kristianp•1h ago•0 comments

What Is an AI Data Analyst?

https://www.scoopanalytics.com/ai/ai-data-analyst
2•taylormorgansco•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Crowd Forecasting: Simulate expert debates, get probability estimates

https://chatgpt.com/g/g-67efa979a8a081918aae886d92872364-crowd-forecasting
1•vassilbek•1h ago•0 comments