It's like that old saying with the tree in the forest. If you build a coal plant but it's never needed was it really that bad?

Seems like the plan is to adjust the rates for wind and solar, inducing demand, but then keep coal as a backup so that power is always cheap.

It will be interesting to see how consumption responds to variability of renewables. Grid batteries, production scaling with the sun, EV charging with the sun, etc.

PRC built ~550 GW of solar last year, ~300GW domestic, ~250GW export. About 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in terms of oil displacement / energy flow (substitution method). In terms of stock, assume 30 year panel lifespan (30yr*4mbd) lifetime generation of single day of PRC solar production effectively minting 120 mbd, or about global daily oil extraction @120mbd. Assuming 17% capacity factor = 820Twh/yr using primary energy / equivalent / substitution method of 1 unit of solar = 3 unit of oil @35% work efficiency. Another way to look at it, PRC's 2025 solar production will displace about 45 billion barrels of oil over it's lifetime.

Another point to consider is manufacturing all these panels, which are functionally net carbon sinks, count towards PRC emissions vs extracting oil/lng where exporters who gets to shift emission accounting onto importers/consumers under current territorial emission accounting. IF PRC got credited for ~110 mb/d of fossil displaced via solar (round down for conservative carbon payback), PRC emissions would be completely negated, i.e. PRC annual solar production would avoid ~30Gt of emissions over lifetime vs PRC total emissions of ~15Gt.

Lastly, thought experiment: PRC solar manufacturing at like 50% utilization, they're scaled for ~1100GW, if world can absorb PRC solar, PRC can mint enough panels in 12 years to replace oil. At full utility, it supports about 240mbd flow of global solar stock after switching to replacement in 30 years. Hypothetically, if PRC maintained peak 400GW of solar expansion per year (~3mbd), i.e.2025 1100GW, 2026 = 1500GW, 2027 = 1900GW... by 2036 = 5500GW about ~40mbd of annual displacement, and cumulative ~300mbd displacement (flow not stock), aka current total global fossil consumption replacement.

Obviously, this is functionally magical thinking, PRC going through solar involution = they're not going to 5x their solar production... but theoretically this scenario not impossible. PRC can scale to 5500GW for the paltry sum of lol $50B per year. Probably need another 200B in battery storage to match. About 2.5T in ~10 years, really a pittance if it can be absorbed/integrated. Of course will run into material/battery crunch (i.e. eliminate silver / increase copper mining), but on paper that is something that can happen, certainly by 2050/60 on lax timelines. Alternative aggressively hopium framing, but 8billion people chip in $25 per year directed at solar + batteries and we can replace fossil in 10-15 years. We already spend more than this on fossil. we're It doesn't have to be PRC alone, but if they wanted to, they can carry it.