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As Rocks May Think

https://evjang.com/2026/02/04/rocks.html
35•modeless•1h ago

Comments

measurablefunc•40m ago
Yes, yes, we are all going to be living in an automated & luxurious communist utopia. Here are some material facts to ground the exuberance: 1) Lifecycel of typical GPU in a data center is 1-3 years, 2) Buildout is already limited by production capacity & will hit production walls by 2027-2028 when turnover matches & exceeds production capacity, 3) TSMCs projected capacity is ~130k wafers/month & it is not keeping up w/ demand which is more than doubling, 4) Power consumption for these "geniuses" & "thinking rocks" in data centers requires lots of power & the capacity was saturated in 2025, 5) So along w/ production capacity limitations power production is now another gating factor.

Anyway, like data centers in space there are lots of material limitations that all of these exuberant "ZOMG rocks can think now" essays all sweep under the rug to drive a very biased narrative about what is actually happening & the fact that all those binary bits are produced by real materials that have lifecycles & production limits not visible in the digital artifacts.

lawrenceyan•35m ago
Biggest update I see is that he thinks AI 2027 is actually going to happen.
munificent•31m ago
> We are entering a golden age in which all computer science problems seem to be tractable, insomuch as we can get very useful approximations of any computable function.

Alternatively, we are entering a dark age where the billionaires who control most of the world's capital will no longer need to suffer the indignity of paying wages to humans in order to generate more revenue from information products.

> the real kicker is that we now have general-purpose thinking machines that can use computers and tackle just about any short digital problem.

We already have those thinking machines. They're called people. Why haven't people solved many of the world's problems already? Largely because the people who can afford to pay them to do so have chosen not to.

I don't see any evidence that the selfishness, avarice, and short-term thinking of the elites will be improved by them being able to replace their employees with a bot army.

measurablefunc•23m ago
What you fail to understand Bob is that as long as we let the billionaires do what they want then we all automatically win. That's just how the system is designed to work, we can't lose as long as Musk & his buddies are at the helm.
munificent•8m ago
Gazing up at them adoringly, mouth open, waiting for it all to trickle down on my face.
Centigonal•16m ago
I don't understand why you're being downvoted. This is a topic worth discussing.

Like every previous invention that improves productivity (cf. copiers, steam power, the wheel), this wave of AI is making certain forms of labor redundant, creating or further enriching a class of industrialists, and enabling individuals to become even more productive.

This could create a golden age, or a dark age -- most likely, it will create both. The industrial revolution created Dickensian London, the Luddite rebellion & ensuing massacres, and Blake's "dark satanic mills," but it also gave me my wardrobe of cool $30 band T-shirts and my beloved Amtrak train service.

Now is the time to talk about how we predict incentive structures will cause this technology to be used, and what levers we have at our disposal to tilt it toward "golden age."

esafak•23m ago
This looks like a survey. Is there a thesis; any claim?
keybored•17m ago
This is a bad timeline for anyone with a family history of manic episodes.
alsetmusic•12m ago
This person doesn't understand how LLMs work.
TacticalCoder•4m ago
> As Rocks May Think

I thought they meant the plural of ASRock as in "ASRocks May think" and thought this was about ASRock motherboards getting a BIOS/UEFI with an integrated LLM or something.

New York poised to legalize medical aid in dying

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/04/medical-aid-in-dying-new-york-00766413
1•JumpCrisscross•1m ago•0 comments

Triangle: A Two-Dimensional Quality Mesh Generator and Delaunay Triangulator

https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~quake/triangle.html
1•MassPikeMike•2m ago•0 comments

Alphabet expects 2026 capex in the range of $175B to $185B

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/04/alphabet-googl-q4-2025-earnings.html
1•mfiguiere•3m ago•0 comments

Against the Orthogonality Thesis

https://jonasmoman.substack.com/p/against-the-orthogonality-thesis
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Making Sense of Madness: Stress-Induced Hallucinogenesis

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1•paulpauper•5m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: Have any 100% AI companies been founded yet?

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3•xupybd•8m ago•0 comments

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Simple LLM Native Todo System on OpenCode

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3•mag123c•31m ago•1 comments

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6•wslh•32m ago•0 comments

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2100 – Beyond the Horizon – A Utopian AI Short Film by the Flo Factory [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJNhFARaxKA
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Always Be Journaling (2018)

https://letterstoanewdeveloper.com/2018/12/14/always-be-journaling/
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https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLYGWJjYNEIt3zCGboiDjsNwHn3t2BTLAJ
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