Ask HN: What are your odds that "we are not alone" is confirmed this year?
3•keepamovin•1h ago
HN prediction market, table your bets.
Comments
andsoitis•1h ago
0% - assuming you're referring to intelligent alien species
keepamovin•1h ago
Yes, and noted with thanks.
andsoitis•55m ago
You're welcome. I see you're more optimistic :-)
I will add that "not alone" also implies we are able to be aware of "them" as they currently are, not billions of years ago.
Put differently, if we discover signs of a civilization OR even traces of something akin to life, but we cannot validate they still exist, we are still alone.
keepamovin•34m ago
Fair enough and that’s an interesting situation nonetheless.
In some ways emotionally, I’d prefer the archaeological previous advanced civilization discovery that both confirms: We’re not alone in the extent of time, but we don’t really have anything else to consider in the present, so we can study and learn from something static.
Though I feel, optimistically, I guess, that the reality is more dynamic than that.
PaulHoule•1h ago
0.5%
keepamovin•1h ago
Respectably non-zero. 1 in 200. I think I'm at 1 in 30 rationally. But 61.8% emotionally. Intuitively, I'd say 86-87%.
FrankWilhoit•59m ago
Zero. We cannot possibly be alone, but confirmation depends upon our ability to imagine the unimaginable.
Life, yes. Intelligent life, yes. Intelligent life whose manifestations we can recognize, no.
keepamovin•36m ago
Excellent point and intellectually honest. There’s no guarantee that EXO intelligence would be anything we could fathom.
That said we could probably recognize it via traces and I’m sure we’re about to confirm it’s existence.
andsoitis•1h ago
keepamovin•1h ago
andsoitis•55m ago
I will add that "not alone" also implies we are able to be aware of "them" as they currently are, not billions of years ago.
Put differently, if we discover signs of a civilization OR even traces of something akin to life, but we cannot validate they still exist, we are still alone.
keepamovin•34m ago
In some ways emotionally, I’d prefer the archaeological previous advanced civilization discovery that both confirms: We’re not alone in the extent of time, but we don’t really have anything else to consider in the present, so we can study and learn from something static.
Though I feel, optimistically, I guess, that the reality is more dynamic than that.