Google has an enormous number of advantages:

  1. Unreal profit stream from previous businesses
  2. A large collection of distinguished researchers
  3. Their own accelerator hardware giving them a cost advantage for serving
  4. More data than any other lab
  5. Best distribution on the planet

Google’s advantages are real, but their research/model + product execution hasn’t consistently cleared the market test that matters: developer and power-user preference for getting real work done. Aggressive pricing, bundling and distribution keep them “in the conversation,” but it increasingly feels like they’re buying relevance rather than earning it.

timeline:

  1. Bard -- laughable compared to the competition at the time
  2. Gemini 1.0 -- an actual punchline, hard to recall a launch that hurt Google's brand more
  3. Gemini 1.5 -- large context, no doubt. But not used for productivity menaifully
  4. Gemini 2 -- flash was cheap which opened up ... OCR?
  5. Gemini 2.5 -- close to frontier .. maybe.
  6. Gemini 3.0 -- maybe frontier for some reasoning tasks, but doesn't really stay on task and isn't in the "agentic" discussion.
  7. Post Gemini 3.0 -- OAI and Claude release at a breakneck speed claiming just about all of the "agentic" space, Gemini simply isn't in the conversation.