Isn’t this an erosion of the silicon shield Taiwan is protected by? If they make semiconductors everywhere else then the world has less economic incentive to protect Taiwan from war.
stingraycharles•1h ago
Yes, it is. The unfortunate reality is that western societies care more about TSMC than Taiwan, and they’re hedging their bets this way.
david2ndaccount•1h ago
The world won’t allow a dependence on a single geopolitically threatened entity in the long run, so either they defuse that risk themselves or risk a competitor filling that role. This move is better for TSMC itself.
3eb7988a1663•1h ago
Who would protect Taiwan anymore? I have my doubts that any prior defense agreement would be upheld today.
adastra22•1h ago
What defense agreements?
trvz•1h ago
No. To get to Taiwan, Mainland Taiwan first has to go through China, the ocean, and Taiwan. They’ll be fine without anyone else’s help.
porridgeraisin•1h ago
America doesn't defend taiwan for its semiconductors - it's all american IP anyways. They defend it for the same reason they defend japan and Phillipines - to control the pacific "frontier" these three countries form before guam. Typically against China, but they would do the same nonetheless.
dd_xplore•1h ago
But why should the world depend on a single country or entity? Everything should be diversified.
raincole•1h ago
Yes.
But it will happen one way or another. Taiwan's Sovereignty is completely depending on one single country, the US. It's not like that Taiwan can just say no if the US demands more diversified chip production.
tzahifadida•59m ago
Disagree. Making the world less centralized to TSMC chips makes less incentive to invade at the near future. There is no strategic upside to do it right now. If nothing else, to me it seems china is a strategic mover, and will not sacrifice anything for no strategic value.
bschwindHN•55m ago
China doesn't want to invade Taiwan for TSMC.
Waterluvian•50m ago
That’s a deeply oversimplified understanding of Taiwan and reunification. There’s so much good reading on the topic out there and it’s really worth even just skimming the surface of it.
diego_sandoval•38m ago
If TSMC didn't exist, China would probably have already invaded Taiwan.
AlexCoventry•48m ago
Seems likely that Takaichi has given Taiwan a Japanese security guarantee. [1] This may be a quid pro quo.
Despite what Takaichi says, if there is a war in Taiwan, Japan can only defend itself and it's interests in its sovereign territory. Japan's pacifist constitution only allows defense, even building an aircraft carrier was very controversial because it's considered to be too offensive. It's highly unlikely that Japan will actively help Taiwan defend itself
tommica•29m ago
Laws and rules can be changed.
Or defending taiwan can be PR'd into a self-defending message.
Izikiel43•26m ago
> Japan's pacifist constitution only allows defense
She just won a super majority in the legislature that allows her to change the constitution.
mullingitover•31m ago
My guess: Japan deletes the pacifist promises in its constitution, fully rearms, announces nuclear weapons capability (or does an Israel and ‘refuses to confirm or deny’), and signs a mutual defense pact with Taiwan.
raincole•29m ago
She didn't give a security guarantee. And even if she wanted she can't.
Japan can't even sell arms to Taiwan right now. Even starting selling arms would be a huge change, let alone a mutual defensive pact.
It's extremely hard to change the constitution of Japan. It's the only constitution that has never been revised since WWII. LDP has been pushing this agenda for decades and nothing really happened.
Izikiel43•27m ago
She just won a super majority in their legislature, she can even amend the constitution now.
Hamuko•14m ago
Can she? As far as I've understood it, the LDP isn't a particularly united party.
raincole•14m ago
No, she can't.
The process to amend the constitution of Japan [0]:
1. two thirds of the house
2. two thirds of the senate
3. referendum
LDP just won the house. IF all LDP house representatives agreed with Takaichi then she could pass the first stage. Only two left!
Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advance.
kyboren•31m ago
Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication.
Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony".
Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailing. It's a shame.
danielbln•12m ago
The only forward facing government that actually had a drive to change anything useful for the future broke apart with internal squabbles, with a big part of it by the market liberals torpedoing things left and right. And now we're back to a government of stand still, like we did the almost two decades before.
We get what we deserve.
Flatterer3544•3m ago
This standstill mostly started happening when the capitalism took hold too deep and wide, look at Sweden and its golden age that lasted until all the restrictions on capitalism were silently removed.
Shareholder primacy is ruining everything, too much influence in politics from too many external sources.
chvid•4m ago
ASML and its mostly European suppliers is still the key chokepoint that prevents highend semiconductor fabrication from moving to China.
Herring•25m ago
China has many faults. Invading other countries is not one of them. They haven’t dropped bombs on foreign soil in over 40 years. The Chinese playbook here is to first copy then out-scale and out-innovate until eventually nobody remembers why Taiwan was so important.
SilverElfin•1h ago
stingraycharles•1h ago
david2ndaccount•1h ago
3eb7988a1663•1h ago
adastra22•1h ago
trvz•1h ago
porridgeraisin•1h ago
dd_xplore•1h ago
raincole•1h ago
But it will happen one way or another. Taiwan's Sovereignty is completely depending on one single country, the US. It's not like that Taiwan can just say no if the US demands more diversified chip production.
tzahifadida•59m ago
bschwindHN•55m ago
Waterluvian•50m ago
diego_sandoval•38m ago
AlexCoventry•48m ago
[1] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p-4nFgs9fRE
topsykrates•35m ago
tommica•29m ago
Or defending taiwan can be PR'd into a self-defending message.
Izikiel43•26m ago
She just won a super majority in the legislature that allows her to change the constitution.
mullingitover•31m ago
raincole•29m ago
Japan can't even sell arms to Taiwan right now. Even starting selling arms would be a huge change, let alone a mutual defensive pact.
It's extremely hard to change the constitution of Japan. It's the only constitution that has never been revised since WWII. LDP has been pushing this agenda for decades and nothing really happened.
Izikiel43•27m ago
Hamuko•14m ago
raincole•14m ago
The process to amend the constitution of Japan [0]:
1. two thirds of the house
2. two thirds of the senate
3. referendum
LDP just won the house. IF all LDP house representatives agreed with Takaichi then she could pass the first stage. Only two left!
[0]: https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%9B%BD%E6...