I can't really see how it would happen and that I suppose is part of the fun.
Yes. I've learned to differentiate between the words people use and what they actually mean, rather than being literal.
Since index ETFs make up a large portion of people's investments they fear the value of those ETFs tanking. Obviously this is due to the underlying stocks' prices dropping This has happened many times in the past, most (in)famously in 1929.
Everyone has a prediction about what will cause the next major financial panic. Personally I think it will be triggered by property and casualty insurers who have purchased a lot of bonds where the credit ratings don't accurately reflect the true default risk. But who knows, it could be something else.
I don't think that would happen for the same reason that there are income taxes and yet the government doesn't have every last dollar.
If you think sovereign wealth funds are communism, someone should tell Alaska.
TFA says otherwise, in detail and with a lot of supporting data. If you're going to contradict it you ought to cite a source.
That's not recent at all. They've, for a long time, had large allocations to PE funds.
Investors Warn of 'Rot in Private Equity' as Funds Strike Circular Deals - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46380751 - December 2025
Once Wall Street’s High Flyer, Private Equity Loses Its Luster - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46364566 - December 2025
Private Equity’s Latest Financial Alchemy Is Worrying Investors - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44891882 - August 2025
People Are Worried About Private Market Liquidity - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-10/peo... | https://archive.today/wJ3Uf - June 10th, 2025
Private Equity Fundraising Plunges Amid Struggle to Return Cash - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-27/private-e... | https://archive.today/hxvzb - May 27th, 2025
Private Equity Firms Hunt for Alternate Ways to Return Investor Cash - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-05-14/privat... | https://archive.today/6UzBk - May 14th, 2025
Unlocking a potential US$3.8 trillion opportunity for private equity firms - https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/financial-s... - December 16th, 2024
We won't know the return until the investment is over and capital is returned.
This kind of deceit is one of the main services PE funds provide
Should New York’s $270B pension fund abandon Wall Street? - https://www.semafor.com/article/08/07/2025/new-york-comptrol... - August 7th, 2025 ("Drew Warshaw is running for New York state comptroller, a job most voters would struggle to define but one that includes oversight of the state’s pension fund. If he unseats 18-year incumbent Thomas DiNapoli, Warshaw’s plan is to move much of its nearly $300 billion of investments into ultra-cheap, passive index funds. The New York State and Local Retirement System has more than $90 billion invested in private equity, private credit, real estate, and other complex assets. All promise high returns — catnip for pension managers facing future payouts to retirees — but charge high fees, too. The question facing New York and hundreds of other state and local pension funds, charitable endowments, universities, and government funds around the world: Are these high-priced managers worth the fees they’re charging?")
What Does Nevada’s $35 Billion Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing - https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-does-nevadas-35-billion-fu... | https://archive.today/ywTFd - October 19th, 2016
The management fees are, broadly speaking, a grift/rake of capital flows and economically inefficient, based on the evidence and the data. The issue at play is that the capital market ecosystem has become a bureaucracy that demands to continue to grow, versus cannibalizing itself in the name of economically efficient capital allocation.
Tangentially, the markets are moving to more trading (24/7/5) versus less because when trades are made, money is made in a Parable of the Broken Window sort of way.
I find it interesting that the OP isn't arguing pensions should switch to investing in index funds, but rather into other projects the OP considers morally superior and that he personally believes will give better returns then hedge funds.
This is the same argument that Ann Pettifor has about how the poor allocation of pension funds is because "it’s much easier to make money from gambling and speculating than it is from investing in the land on the one hand, in the broader sense of the word, or investing in labor"
https://annpettifor.substack.com/p/on-pensions-and-the-globa...
I can't believe I'm about to say something that could be construed as a defense of Larry Summers, but here goes: bank depositors are not engaging in risky behavior, they are putting cash in a bank. SVB did not get bailed out, it failed.
And as some of who supports the student loan forgiveness, yes, it is slightly inflationary but I think the benefits out weigh the inflationary effects.
Combine this with the "need" for nuclear (a perfectly cromulent but excessively expensive power source which has cheaper zero-carbon options), in the first paragraph, these comments that are not about the main topic severely undermine my ability to trust the rest of the essay.
The lesson to myself is to be narrow when I write, so as not to bring in a bunch of other positions that also need to be defended.
Because the taxpayers (and all users of USD) repeatedly bail them out. I could define anything as not being risky if I knew taxpayers would bail it out.
More importantly, if there is no risk, what purpose does a bank serve? They’re a pretty bloated middleman if their sole purpose is to update a database to reflect incoming and outgoing cash flow. The government should be able to offer that service for free.
Bank shareholders or creditors are engaging in risky behavior and should face the full consequences of bank failures. No bailouts for them.
I feel like I must be misunderstanding something here because it sounds like you're saying depositing funds in a bank is considered risky behaviour?
But, at least in the US, regulators keep blocking the 1st step: narrow banking. Let banks offer savings accounts that just stick the money in the Fed, zero risk.
And banks do a lot more than what you described, which I have to assume you know already.
In particular the article incorrectly states that the bank was bailed out. It was not. The bank failed. Depositors who were running their non-profit in the Bay Area did not lost all their charitable contributions.
The bank failed because it had placed deposits into US Treasury bonds that were temporarily worth less for sale on the open market than they would be at maturity. When Peter Thiel started a bank run by telling all his investments to pull their funds, that exposed the SCB mismanagement.
When the depositors were bailed out, taxpayers didn't lost anything, it was a wash. We could have paid at bond maturity or now, but it made little difference to us.
Banks provide security for deposits as well as liquidity (velocity of money), and slight inflationary pressure.
Wiping out depositors doesn't prevent much moral hazard since the depositors are unsophisticated, so they are unable to differentiate risk among banks.
If students could not borrow enough to attend, they would be forced to lower costs (not necessarily the very top universities, but all the rest).
The incentives are not so naively simple
And if that was the proposal, would that be better or worse than the current status quo?
The reason universities are so expensive is there is no limit on how much they can charge for tuition and no requirements on how much they pay their professors. It allows them to dump a huge portion of their funds into the marketing and athletic departments.
I know of a few religious universities who's mission is mainly to educate (so their well educated members can pay back more money to the church). While they do subsidize the educational costs, it isn't by as much as you'd think and it does result in some very cheap education.
There's no reason the government couldn't do exactly the same thing. It did right up until reagan.
Universities don't care if their majors will result in a job and the student loans are a source of risk-free money.
They need to start taking on the risk of all student loan, not me, the tax payer.
The solution is to allow judges the discretion to default them in bankruptcy after X number of years after graduation. Lenders need to accept the risk. With no risk, they can loan as much as they want and have guaranteed repayment. This drives tuition higher and higher.
Cool. Cool.
The market lens is myopic, the market cannot be expected to produce social goods in proportion to necessity - that's not any part of its function.
I agree that the student loan system is insane. Students need grants to cover cost of living while they focus on learning, education itself of course should be free.
That is risky behavior. You can't earn interest without taking a risk.
Supposedly intelligent investors leaving money in accounts above FDIC limits ($250k per holder per bank, so $500k for joint account) were engaging in risky laziness.
Both loan forgiveness and nuclear have huge benefits
The "Safe Withdrawal Rate" assumed by many private individuals planning for their own retirement assumes a withdrawal rate in the 3 - 4% range based on the "trinity study" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study
Meanwhile, American public pensions are structurally engineered around a 7%+ SWR - this was recently confirmed again by the median goal by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators.
The perpetual "under funded" nature, and all the return hunting etc in pension fund management can be explained by that disconnect.
But this then belies a very uncomfortable acknowledgement which is that we cannot afford the government workforce currently in place requiring us to either:
(a) Raise taxes to increase contributions.
Or
(b) Somehow make due with less government :)
Increasing the money(number), while making everything else costly (a lot more costlier in reality because of fictional inflation number) is not only hard to achieve, but even if achieved, doesn't mean much. ".S. Dollar itself has lost roughly 98% of its purchasing power over the long term" -- random Warren Buffett quote.
The problem with US student loans is usury.
Student Loan interest rates in the US can be as high as 9-13%. The government can borrow at 3.36% which even if we assume a 20% overhead is 4.03% to the borrower. Other countries/governments do a scheme similar to this, and it makes repayment realistic.
I'm certain someone will respond telling me the difference between Subsidized, Unsubsidized, PLUS, and private loans which completely missing the point: There shouldn't be a private entity that needs to turn a profit on the backs of students begin with, it is immoral. If you remove the private for-profit entity, the loan-type distinction goes away.
It isn't uncommon to read stories from people, who graduated and are in good jobs, and had no gaps in repayments that are now on 300%+ of their original borrowed amount.
OGEnthusiast•32m ago
groundzeros2015•23m ago
This is just a boogie man media term. There are good owners/investors and bad.
joejoe638•17m ago
PE is finalisation of business, its ownership is far more similar to a mortgagee than an owner in every sense of the word.
groundzeros2015•15m ago
mr_important•23m ago
budududuroiu•20m ago
munk-a•17m ago
Restricting a previously purchased business from taking out debt feels harder to regulate, but someone smart could probably figure out a few good rules to stop the majority of abuses.
triceratops•16m ago
terminalshort•5m ago
techgnosis•22m ago
nradov•22m ago
Private equity is a convenient whipping boy for ignorant, low-information HN users who don't understand the basics of how finance works. You can certainly find examples of destructive or unethical behavior if you dig deep enough. What you don't see in the news are all the cases where PE saved companies that would have otherwise gone bankrupt.
wizzwizz4•19m ago
groundzeros2015•17m ago
calcifer•16m ago
Dig deep enough? Please. Merely tilt your head slightly upwards, and let your eyes feast on countless examples.
WarmWash•8m ago
It's like researching the safety of driving by only looking at local news station websites. It will seem like the only thing those cars do is crash and kill people.
terminalshort•7m ago
ericd•9m ago
lokar•7m ago
For example, banks are given pretty generous capital rule treatment when they loan money to PE firms to increase leverage. We could stop that. They also get a lot of tax preferences that increase returns to investors and managers.
e40•21m ago
triceratops•20m ago
shermantanktop•1m ago
Is this a definitional quibble or do you not believe there is a problem?
munk-a•19m ago