If they didn't appropriately account for risk that the expectation would not pan out, well, that's on them.
For context, that is more than the annual revenue of all but 3 tech companies in the world (Nvidia, Apple, Google), and about the same as Microsoft.
OpenAI meanwhile is projected to make $20 billion in 2026. So a casual 1300% revenue growth in under 4 years for a company that is already valued in the hundreds of billions.
Must be nice to pull numbers out of one's ass with zero consequence.
I'm three of them and I never spent a cent on any llms, I doubt I'm the only one
He is counting on hundreds of husbands: https://xkcd.com/605/
Garbage in, garbage out, same as before.
Such a weird sentence. The correct causality should be: It's valued in the hundreds of billions because the investors expect a 1300% revenue growth.
Another example is how Isaac Newton lost money on some other bubble as well: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/market-crash-cost-... [ The market crash which cost newton fortune]
So even if NEWTON, the legendary ISAAC NEWTON could lose money in bubble and was left holding umbrellas when there was no rain.
From the book Intelligent investor, I want to get a quote so here it goes (opened the book from my shelf, the page number is 13)
The great physicist muttered that he "could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not hte madness of the people"
This quote seems soo applicable in today's world, I am gonna create a parent comment about it as well.
Also, For the rest of Newton's life, he forbade anyone to speak the words "South Sea" in his pressence.
Newton lost more than $3 Million in today's money because of the south sea company bubble.
> Must be nice to pull numbers out of one's ass with zero consequence.
Seems accurate?
What they are saying is if Microsoft ends up buying the rest of their shares then i.e. Microsoft's total revenue by 2030 will be more than $280 billion.
The tools are good! The main bottleneck right now is better scaffolding so that they can be thoroughly adopted and so that the agents can QA their own work.
I see no particular reason not to think that software engineering as we know it will be massively disrupted in the next few years, and probably other industries close behind.
Even with the revised numbers, I cannot believe that they’ll have $280bn in revenue by 2030.
[0]: You can tell by the reason the sources are granted anonymity: because the information is private, not because they aren’t authorized to speak on the matter
I saw a report that previous capacity pricing was $28/MWh/day. Latest numbers have shot up to $300.
This looks very much like a careful move to deflate the bubble without popping it, but we’ve likely passed that point.
OpenAI...not so sure, they need an IPO soon while public still is high off the double bull run post 2020
90% chance in 6-12 months spending expectations drop to $0.
But this time draw it for spending expectations.
A trillion here, a trillion there and all the AI companies are also telling us they're planning on wiping out 2/3 of jobs in the next 10 years? Nothing about the economics of the AI boom makes any sense.
I'm not saying it's not possible, but if we wipe out 2/3 of jobs with AI, who is going to be buying *all the stuff*?
Unemployed people aren't much of a demographic, and you can't just say UBI because that doesn't make sense either. You think the billionaires are going to allow themselves to be taxed heavily enough to support UBI just so that there's a market for people to buy stuff from them? That's nonsense.
Not trying to creep anybody out, but I just don't see a stable outcome for a society that doesn't need 2/3 of the population.
They will have no choice. Proletariat must not be hungry and agitated. Free legal MJ for everyone!
Everyone else has been less explicit, likely because it's just not politically a good idea to keep pronouncing it.
It's part of Anthropics marketing though. Maybe to push the idea you can't beat us so join us?
what if… MBAs turned from economics to a religion and no one noticed?
Money is just a proxy for access to resources. If a machine that is capable of replacing almost all jobs is really created then money will matter much less than access to said machine. Taken to the extreme to make the point, if you had a genie that could grant your every wish, what would you need money for ?
Will it continue to transform the economy radically? Yes.
Will that translate to the model-makers somehow capturing the entire value of the transformed economy? No.
There were a few key moments that revealed this. When OpenAI initially declared "there is no moat," I wasn't sure whether to believe them. GPT 3.5 and 4 were so much better than the competition, it felt like them saying that they had no moat was some sort of attempt to avoid regulation or scrutiny. But then, lo and behold, Claude and Gemini caught up; there really was no moat.
But up until then, while it was clear that there was no moat around OpenAI, it was unclear if there was a moat around big tech. Mistral was meh. Even Meta's were meh. We also had no idea how much these models actually cost to run. It wasn't until the "DeepSeek moment," and especially once these open source models actually started being hosted on third party services, that it became clear that this was actually a competitive landscape.
And as has already been demonstrated, because the interface for all of these models is just plain language, the cost of switching models is basically non-existent.
Seeing the same setup in 2008 and now. Enjoy your subsidized $200/month codex because its going to go up in the future.
> After previously boasting $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments, OpenAI is now telling investors that it plans to spend $600 billion by 2030.
does the word "commitment" have a different meaning in this context? How do you cut a commitment >50%? OpenAI's partners are making decisions based on the previous commitment because.. OpenAI committed to it. I must be completely wrong because how does this not set off a severe chain reaction?
givemeethekeys•1h ago