I personally love Jane Street lore. I think there is a lot of value to this theory, but people saying BTC would be at $150,000 feels misguided, since there are a lot of complex stories developing across the global economy. A lot of the sell off since October is, not only due to these ETF mechanisms, but also a general liquidity crunch that also affected performance of traditional software companies as economic uncertainty grows. I am reading more about bitcoin as a "canary in coal mine" for global liquidity uncertainty, a lot of which is coming from the current US Admin around tariffs, data reporting methodologies, and other policies.

I observed this pattern of Bitcoin dumping when the stock market is open, typically in the morning, as far back as 2 years ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39097752

Very profitable and easy pattern. still is profitable. I don't think Jane Street is to blame. It has more to do with Bitcoin fundamentally being weak and hype fading. Bitcoin has tended to dump randomly a lot.