There is a window on the 2nd. But you don't aim for the second half of the launch period and hope you make it, you aim for the start to allow time to resolve issues without waiting for the next window (which is the end of the month).

Well at least there’s a 50% probability of success

What factors are there for the lunar launch window?

It can't be weather, here, right? That's too far ahead.

Is it perigee?

If this window is missed, when is the next one?

> If a SpaceX Falcon blows up on the pad, that's one thing. It's expensive but they accept that risk to move faster. At least they gain knowledge of what failed, to do better next time.

Assuming it's not carrying a SpaceX Crew Dragon with crew onboard ;)

Also, it's a bit of a dated metaphor. Falcon 9 is by most accounts, now the most reliable rocket in history and is pretty design-locked. The modern metaphor is SpaceX Starship :)