The main difference is that you're exploiting your own weaknesses, rather than others'. Limitations in typing speed, information gathering, pattern recognition.
1/ Dependency -- Once I got used to agentic coding, I almost always reached out to it even for small changes (e.g. update a yaml config)
2/ Addiction -- In the initial euphoria phase, many people experience not wanting to "waste" any time agent idle and they'd try to assign AI agents task before they go to sleep
3/ You trust your judgement less and less as agent takes over your code
4/ "Slot machine" behavior -- running multiple AI agents parallel on same task in hope of getting some valuable insight from either
5/ Psychosis -- We have all met crypto traders who'd tell you how your 9-5 is stupid and you could be making so much trading NFTs. Social media if full of similar anecodotes these days in regards to vibecoding with people boasting their Claude spend, LOC and what not
It's not an inherent feature to slot machines, it's something we enforce because people got angry about the outcomes (i.e. fraud) when they didn't operate that way.
It doesn't matter because a dodgy slot-machine is still a slot machine, and the person using it would still be a gambler.
The important part of the not-really-a-metaphor is the relationship between user and machine, and how it affects the user's mind.
What the machine outputs on "wins" doesn't matter as much, addictive gambling can still happen even when the payouts are dumb.
You can get more consistent results from a slot machine with a bunch of magnets and some swift kicks. It's still gambling.
- One shot or "spray and pray" prompt only vibe coding: gambling.
- Spec driven TDD AI vibe coding: more akin to poker.
- Normal coding (maybe with tab auto complete): eating veggies/work.
Notably though gambling has the massive downside of losing your entire life and life savings. Being in the "vibe coding" bucket's worse case is being insufferable to your friends and family, wasting your time, and spending $200/month on a max plan.
This has been how I think about it, too. The success rates are going up, but I still view the AI as an adversary that is trying to trick me into thinking it's being useful. Often the act is good enough to be actually useful, too.
I’ve never worked anywhere where the interns had net productivity on average.
But looks like the intern mafia is bombarding you with downvotes.
2. Who here thinks that having interns write all/almost all of your code and moving all your mid level and senior developers to exclusively reviewing their work and managing them is a good idea?
Coding agents look at existing text in the codebase before they act. If they previously used a pattern you dislike and you tell them how to do differently, the next time they run they'll see the new pattern and are much more likely to follow that example.
There are fancier ways of having them "learn" - self-updating CLAUDE.md files, taking notes in a notes/ folder etc - but just the code that they write (and can later read in future sessions) feels close-enough to "learning" to me that I don't think it makes sense to say they don't learn any more.
The reason i think this metaphor keeps popping up, is because of how easy it is to just hit a wall and constantly prompt "its not working please fix it" and sometimes that will actually result in a positive outcome. So you can choose to gamble very easily, and receive the gambling feedback very quickly unlike with an intern where the feedback loop is considerably delayed, and the delayed interns output might simply be them screaming that they don't understand.
Watching vibe gamblers hooked onto coding agents who can't solve fizz buzz in Rust are given promotional offers by Anthropic [0] for free token allowances that are the equivalent in the casino of free $20 bets or free spins at the casino to win until March 27, 2026.
The house (Anthropic) always wins.
[0] https://support.claude.com/en/articles/14063676-claude-march...
It also depends on what you're coding with;
- If you're coding with opus4.6, then it's not gambling for a while.
- If you'r coding with gemini3-flash, then yeah.
One thing I have noticed though is- you have to spend a lot of tokens to keep the error/hallucination rate low as your codebase increases in size. The math of this problem makes sense; as the code base has increased, there's physically more surface where something could go wrong. To avoid that you have to consistently and efficiently make the surface and all it's features visible to the model. If you have coded with a model for a week and it has produced some code, the model is not more intelligent after that week- it still has the same layers and parameters, so keeping the context relevant is a moving target as the codebase increases (and that's why it probably feels like gambling to some people).
> you have to spend a lot of tokens to keep the error/hallucination rate low
Ironically, I find your comment more effective at convincing me AI coding is gambling than the original article. You're talking about it the exact same way that gamblers do about their games.
- Was there anymore intelligence that you wanted to add to your argument?
If, on the other hand, you treat it like a hyper-competent collaborator, and follow good project management and development practices, you're golden.
In a healthy environment. We are harmed more by being totally risk adverse. Than by accepting risk as part of life and work.
I am consistently using 100% of my weekly $200 max plan. I know how this thing works, I know how to get value out of it, and I wish what you said were true.
If you do all of these things? You are in a better spot. You are in a far better spot than if you hadn't! Setting up hooks to ensure notes get written? Massive win! Red-green TDD? Yes, please! But in terms of just ... well, being able to rely on the damn thing?
Sometimes I think we put the Carr before the horse. We gamble because evolution promotes that approach.
Yes I could go for the reliable option. But taking a punt is worth a shot if the cost is low.
The cost of AI is low.
What is a problem is people getting wrapped up in just one more pull of the slot machine handle.
I use AI often. But fairly often I simply bin its reponse and get to work on my own. A decent amount of the time I can work with the response given to make a decent result.
Sometimes, rarely, it gives me what I need right off the bat.
Humans invented gambling as a rigged game that mimics what's in nature, perversed for profit.
You need to collect food, do you go to where you know there are berries (low value but high likelihood of finding), or scout off to find a herd of deer? (High value but low likelihood of finding).
Looking for deer wouldnt be walking off in a random direction. You check water holes, known clearings, known fields.
Each of these is an operation (walk to X and look), each has a low probability of meeting a deer.
This is a variable reward scheme.
The result is optmize foraging practices - you mostly hunt for deer then fall back to berries. In larger groups some will gather berries some will hunt.
Contrary to popular thought hunter and gatherer were not separate occupations.
If we're only talking about money spent on prompting AI, maybe. The damage to online trust is massive imo. So is the damage done by looting the commons to build them.
Typical privatize the profits socialize the costs bullshit
Fast & Cheap (but not Good?) - I wouldn't really say that AI coding is "cheap"
Cheap & Good (but not Fast) - Again, not really "cheap"
Fast & Good (but not Cheap) - This seems like maybe where we're at? Is this a bad place?
That is extremely stupid. What does that ban get you? I reqct to this because a friend mentioned exactly this. And I was dumbfounded.
confidence in firing coders I presume..
CEO1: "We allow our engineers to use AI for all work."
CEO2: "Oh yea? We mandate our engineers use AI for at least N% of their work!"
CEO3: "You think that's good? We mandate our engineers use AI for all code!!"
CEO4: "Pfff, amateurs. We don't even allow our engineers to open source code editors or even look at the LLM output..."
Addiction and recovery is part of my story, so I've done quite a bit of work around that part of my life. I don't gamble, but I can confidently say that using LLMs has been an incredible boost in my productivity while completely destroying my good habits around setting boundaries, not working until 2AM, etc.
In that sense, it feels very much like gambling.
Heck, this style of gambling machine offers a parasocial relationship at the same time! A slot-machine that is also a holographic "friend" is a perfect fit for any cyperpunk dystopia.
Just instead of hitting keys, they’re hitting words, and the words have probability links to each other.
Who the hell thinks this is ready to make important decisions?
[Imports the completely fabricated library docker_quantum_telepathy.js and calls the resolve_all_bugs_and_make_coffee() method, magically compiling the code on an unplugged Raspberry Pi]
AI: "Done! The production deployment was successful, zero errors in the logs, and the app works flawlessly on the first try!"
That's where the gambling metaphor really resonates. It's not whether or not the output is correct, I've been building software for many years and I know how direct LLMs pretty well at this point. But I'm also an alcoholic in recovery and I know that my brain is wired differently than most. And using LLMs has tested my ability to self-regulate in ways that I haven't dealt with since I deleted social media years ago.
I dont think i've read a sentence on this website i can relate to less.
I watch the LLM build things and it feels completely numb, i may as well be watching paint dry. It means nothing to me.
When I was 20, writing code was interesting, by the time I was 28 it became "solving the problem" and then moved on to "I only really enjoy a good disaster to clean up".
All of my time has been spent solving other peoples problems, so I was never invested in the domain that much.
Which with the advent of LLMs just lowered our standards so we can claim success.
But even accounting for all these "hard" constraints and metrics, there are clearly reasons to prefer some possible programs over others even when they all satisfy the same constraints and perform equally on all relevant metrics.
We do treat programs as efficient causes[1] of side effects in computing systems: a file is written, a block of memory is updated, etc. and the program is the cause of this.
But we also treat them as statements of a theory of the problem being solved[2]. And this latter treatment is often more important socially and economically. It is irrational to be indifferent to the theory of the problem the program expresses.
Why do you often need to re-prompt things like "can you simplify this and make it more human readable without sacrificing performance?". No amount of specification addresses this on the first shot unless you already know the exact implementation details in which case you might as well write it yourself directly.
I often have to put in a prompt like this 5-10 times before the code resembles something I'd even consider using as a 1st draft base to refactor into something I would consider worthy of being git commit.
I sometimes use AI for tiny standalone functions or scripts so we're not talking about a lot of deeply nested complexity here.
Are you stuck entering your prompts in manually or do you have it setup like a feedback loop like "beautify -> check beauty -> in not beautiful enough beautify again"? I can't imagine why everyone things AIs can just one shot everything like correctness, optimization, and readability, humans can't one shot these either.
> I can't imagine why everyone things AIs can just one shot everything like correctness, optimization, and readability, humans can't one shot these either.
If it knows how to make the code more readable and / or better for performance by me simply asking "can you make this more readable and performant?" then it should be able to provide this result from the beginning. If not, we're admitting it's providing an initial worse result for unknown reasons. Maybe it's to make you as the operator feel more important (yay I'm providing feedback), or maybe it's to extract the most amount of money it can since each prompt evaluates back to a dollar amount. With the amount of data they have I'm sure they can assess just how many times folks will pay for the "make it better" loop.
I have one shot prompted projects from empty folder to full feature web app with accounts, login, profiles, you name it, insanely stable, maybe and oops here or there, but for a non-spec single prompt shot, that's impressive.
When I don't use a tool to handle the task management I have Claude build up a markdown spec file for me and specify everything I can think of. Output is always better when you specify technology you want to use, design patterns.
The endless next steps of "and add this feature" or "this part needs to work differently" or "this seems like a bug?" or "we must speed up this part!" is where 98% of the effort always was.
Is it different with AI coding?
Is.
Life.
You've discovered probability, there was an 80% change of that. Roll a dice and do not pass go.
Again. The output from llm is a probable solution, not right, not wrong.
Know when to Re-prompt,
Know when to Clear the Context,
And know when to RLHF.
You never trust the Output,
When you’re staring at the diff view,
There’ll (not) be time enough for Fixing,
When the Tokens are all spent.
Bold assumption that people are looking at the diffs at all. They leave that for their coworkers agents.
Now you have more resources to test, reduce permissions scope, to build a test bench & procedure. All of the excuses you once had for not doing the job right are now gone.
You can write 10k + lines of test code in a few minutes. What is the gamble? The old world was a bigger gamble.
Lmk how you feel when you're constantly build integrations with legacy software by hand.
We love a good holy war for sure.
The nuance is lost, and the conversations we should be having never happen (requirements, hiring/skills, developer experience).
That isn't true, which is the exact reason why people have a binary mindset. More than once on Hacker News I've had people accuse me of being an AI booster just because I said I had success with agents and they did not.
Opus specifically from 4.1 to 4.5 was such a major leap that some take it for granted, it went from getting stuck in loops, generally getting lost constantly, needing so so much attention to keep it going to being able to get a prompt, understand it from minimal context and produce what you wanted it to do. Opus 4.6 was a slight downgrade since it has issues with respecting what the user has to say.
Sometimes I can get away with 3K LoC PRs, sometimes I take a really long time on a +80 -25 change. You have to be intellectually honest with yourself about where to spend your time.
Defining “Gambling” like isn’t really helpful.
You can't keep paying to play the "refinancing game" until you get a good rate (at least not like pulling the lever again and again, you have to wait a long time, you won't call the same bank again and again, and suddenly they have an amazing rate), it's a different experience and the psychology is different.
When I have Claude create something from scratch, it all appears very competent, even impressive, and it usually will build/function successfully…on the surface. I have noticed on several occasions that Claude has effectively coded the aesthetics of what I want, but left the substance out. A feature will appear to have been implemented exactly as I asked, but when I dig into the details, it’s a lot of very brittle logic that will almost certainly become a problem in future.
This is why I refuse to release anything it makes for me. I know that it’s not good enough, that I won’t be able to properly maintain it, and that such a product would likely harm my reputation, sooner or later. What frightens me is there are a LOT of people who either don’t know enough to recognize this, or who simply don’t care and are looking for a quick buck. It’s already getting significantly more difficult to search for software projects without getting miles of slop. I don’t know how this will ultimately shake out, but if it’s this bad at the thing it’s supposedly good at, I can only imagine the kinds of military applications being leveraged right now…
Overall I’m a fan, but yes there are things to watch for. It doesn’t replace skilled humans but it does help skilled humans work faster if used right.
The labor replacement story is bullshit mostly, but that doesn’t mean it’s all bad.
This is exactly the sort of mentality that makes me hate this technology
You finally feel good at programming despite admitting that you aren't actually doing it
Please explain why anyone should take this seriously?
I agree with gp that the speed in which I am able to execute my vision is exhilarating. It is making me love programming again. My side projects, which have been hanging on the wall for years, are actually getting done. And quickly!
The actual act of keying in code is drudgery for me. I've written so much code in so many languages that it is hard not to hate them all. Why the fuck is it a hash in ruby but a dict in python? How the hell do I get the current unixtime in this language again?!? Why the fuck do I need to learn yet another stupid vocabulary for what is essentially databinding? Who cares, let the AI handle it
Programming is willing the machine to do something... Writing code is just that writing code, yes sometimes you write code to make the machine do something and other times you write code just to write code ( for example refactoring, or splitting logic from presentation etc.)
Think about it like this... Everyone can write words. But writing words does not make you a book writer.
What always gets me is that the act of writing code by itself has no real value. Programming is what solves problems and brings value. Everyone can write code, not everyone can "program"....
I believe AI will do something similar for programming. The level of complexity in modern apps is high and requires the use of many technologies that most of us cannot remotely claim to be expert in. Getting an idea and getting a prototype will definitely be easier. Production Code is another beast. Dealing with legacy systems etc will still require experts at least for the near future IMHO.
Which I assert is semantically equivalent to saying: Human drivers (even when operating at the diminished capacity of not even being present in the car) are less likely to make errors driving a car than AIs.
Does it? It did in the past. Now it doesn't. Maybe "add a button to display a colour selector" really is the canonical way to code that feature, and the 100+ lines of generated code are just a machine language artifact like binary.
> But it robs me of the part that’s best for the soul. Figuring out how this works for me, finding the clever fix or conversion and getting it working. My job went from connecting these two things being the hard and reward part, to just mopping up how poorly they’ve been connected.
Skill issue. Two nights ago, I used Claude to write an iOS app to convert Live Photos into gifs. No other app does it well. I'm going to publish it as my first app. I wouldn't have bothered to do it without AI, and my soul feels a lot better with it.
And the quality of code models puts out is, in general, well below the average output of a professional developer.
It is however much faster, which makes the gambling loop feel better. Buying and holding a stock for a few months doesn't feel the same as playing a slot machine.
https://simonwillison.net/2025/Feb/3/a-computer-can-never-be...
>You are not an AI and do not know how an AI "thinks".
>Even if you come to be able to anticipate an AI's output, you will be undermined by the constant and uncontrollable update schedule imposed on you by AI platforms. Humans only make drastic changes like this under uncommon circumstances, like when they're going through large changes in their life, not as a matter of course.
>However, without this update schedule, problems that were once intractable will likely stay so forever. Humans, on the other hand, can grow without becoming completely unpredictable.
It's a Catch-22. AI is way closer to gambling.
A big theme of software development for me has been finishing things other people couldn’t finish and the key to that is “control variance and the mean will take care of itself”
Alternately the junior dev thinks he has a mean of 5 min but the variance is really 5 weeks. The senior dev has mean of 5 hours and a variance of 5 hours.
it's really extremely similar to working with a junior programmer
so in this post, where does this go wrong?
> I am not your average developer. I’ve never worked on large teams and I’ve barely started a project from scratch. The internet is filled with code and ideas, most of it freely available for you to fork and change.
Because this describes a cut-and-paster, not a software architect. Hence the LLM is a gambling machine for someone like this since they lack the wisdom to really know how to do things.
There's of course a huge issue which is that how are we going to get more senior/architect programmers in the pipeline if everyone junior is also doing everything with LLMs now. I can't answer that and this might be the asteroid that wipes out the dinosaurs....but in the meantime, if you DO know how to write from scratch and have some experience managing teams of programmers, the LLMs are super useful.
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