The prediction market is not the "key to the universe," nor is it a "truth machine."
> "The prediction market is the incarnation of collective human knowledge. Or at least it could be."
You know things that have happened or are knowable. You can't know the future. Newton absolutely sucked at making investments, lol.
The prediction market is simply -- and inherently, by its very nature -- a gambling machine that is less "fair" than most other forms of gambling. That is to say: It's better at fleecing rubes and better at rewarding insiders. It's one of the worst things to ever be invented.
k310•29m ago
The "wisdom of crowds" used to work when the crowds were composed of people. Then came echo chambers. Then came bots, and then came easy to bias LLM's.
A_D_E_P_T•1h ago
The prediction market is not the "key to the universe," nor is it a "truth machine."
> "The prediction market is the incarnation of collective human knowledge. Or at least it could be."
You know things that have happened or are knowable. You can't know the future. Newton absolutely sucked at making investments, lol.
The prediction market is simply -- and inherently, by its very nature -- a gambling machine that is less "fair" than most other forms of gambling. That is to say: It's better at fleecing rubes and better at rewarding insiders. It's one of the worst things to ever be invented.