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LLMs Are Still Just Predicting the Next Word. So Why Are They So Good Now?

https://medium.com/@tudor.malene/why-predict-the-next-word-shouldnt-work-this-well-but-does-d0333a7a4121
3•tudorhn•1h ago

Comments

jqpabc123•1h ago
Are they so good?

They can excel at information retrieval.

They often fail at logic and reason.

Predicting the next word is basically guesswork. Not the sort of thing any responsible person should rely on to make important decisions.

Doing so leads to liability issues in many business and professional environments. The legal system will have significant influence here.

https://pub.towardsai.net/the-air-gapped-chronicles-the-cour...

tudorhn•1h ago
Author here.

Would you dispute that they're much better than two years ago? I, personally, am quite impressed at how quickly they improved. It's not yet at the level for independent decision-making, but if the rate of improvement holds, I wouldn't be too surprised if we got there in the near future.

jqpabc123•1h ago
Would you dispute that they're much better than two years ago?

I will readily admit that the guesswork has improved.

Will you admit that guesswork remains the foundation of what they do?

Guesswork will always be suspect.

Removing it will require a fundamental redesign and may not be achievable within the constraints of current hardware and economics.

My guess is any significant breakthrough will likely involve quantum computing and renewable energy.

tudorhn•1h ago
That's literally the thesis of the article.

Even though guesswork remains the foundation, the improved training can help discover patterns, backtrack, etc. Basically, explore the problem space by "guessing" through it

jqpabc123•43m ago
Basically, explore the problem space by "guessing" through it

This is where we disagree.

"Guessing" (aka trial and error) is not a "legally" responsible way to make decisions in many cases.

tudorhn•22m ago
Right, I think I understand.

You are specifically talking about independent decision-making.

I have been focusing on "problem-solving".

Tbh, I have no opinion on the legal framework. I'm sure most decisions will be supervised, at least for a while.

Anyone taking a look at the new WH app?

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/the-white-house/id6759938088TheWhiteHouse
1•bueninvierno_•21s ago•0 comments

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