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Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/08/polymarket-trump-us-iran-ceasefire
32•mitchbob•1h ago

Comments

MetaWhirledPeas•48m ago
I wonder if this sort of corruption will become a new negotiation tactic. Give us what we want and we'll delay the announcement long enough for you to make preparations.

I don't know how Polymarket works, so maybe you can enlighten me: can Polymarket be subpoenaed to provide the recipients of the payouts? Is there some insulation to keep them ignorant of their identity?

KumaBear•46m ago
There is a reason they deal in crypto and are not headquartered in the US
KumaBear•47m ago
Just imagine how bad insider trading is on other markets. Stricter laws and crack downs should be implemented globally.
sethops1•20m ago
Once upon a time, people went to jail for insider trading on the stock market. Like that was an actual thing that was enforced with rigor.
mandeepj•20m ago
They aren't looking to prosecute many people https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-sec-says-it-file...
vlovich123•38m ago
Given the accused breaking of ceasefire shortly after agreement, not sure how this bet really gets paid out.
jagged-chisel•22m ago
There were people who bet against… if there’s no one on the other side to take the opposite bet, you don’t have a bet. And you won’t get a payout.
xoxxala•23m ago
There's a saying in poker that if you sit down at the table and can't immediately find the donkey(1), you are the donkey. At some point, anyone playing around in a prediction without insider info will be the donkey.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glossary_of_poker_terms#donkey

woah•8m ago
Can someone articulate what the harm of this is?

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