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The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

https://aphyr.com/posts/419-the-future-of-everything-is-lies-i-guess-new-jobs
103•aphyr•1h ago

Comments

elcapitan•1h ago
Is there a way back to calling human beings human beings and not "meat"? Or is the sociopathic Jeffrey Dahmer undertone now the new normal?
sp527•1h ago
Sure. Would you like WWII, medieval-era Christianity, or Khanate Asia?
bythreads•1h ago
stone age gets a vote from me!
cwmma•1h ago
What are you talking about, the only use of meat is in "Meat Shield", a phrase that's been around a long time now.
jjulius•1h ago
In the article, Ctrl+F for "meat" returns 3 results, while "human" returns 8. Seems like "human" remains the dominant word of choice in this author's vernacular.

Edit: Further, the only times "meat" appears is in the phrase "meat shield", which is an analogy that is very apt relative to the crux of the article.

Edit 2: "People" appears 13 times!

sebg•1h ago
humans are made of meat -> https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47688678
techteach00•1h ago
There has always been a subset of highly technical people in the software world who are anti-organic. They dislike the "meatspace" and humans and relate more with machines and software.
elcapitan•32m ago
Yeah, that was what I was refering to, no the specific part of the article. I've seen it much more here recently. Kind of disgusting and sad, but on the other hand it's good if people show their real face that way.
fHr•1h ago
Meat pupeteering, has nothing to do with Jeffrey just state of slowly getting pushed into doing 95% of devwork with Agents.
ai_critic•59m ago
"meatshield" has the correct connotations for that sort of work.
crote•26m ago
That is exactly why the term is being used.

A company like Amazon doesn't treat its warehouse workers as human beings. Workers are seen as disposable: forced to piss in bottles, forced to work around the corpses of their collapsed coworkers, paid the absolute minimum possible, and replaced the second they don't operate like a perfect unfailing machine. You aren't viewed like a human, you are a tool. Cattle. A piece of meat they are forced to retain because a robot isn't quite capable of doing your task yet.

The article's use of "meat shields" isn't any different. Humans are going to be hired for the sole reason of taking accountability for actions dictated by AI. They are there only because the company can't put blame on a machine and will be sued to oblivion if there's nobody to blame at all. Your existence as a person is irrelevant, they are just interested in someone with a heartbeat they can blame when stuff inevitably goes wrong.

pmg102•1h ago
https://archive.is/OjGox
gordonhart•1h ago
Why post an archive link for a static site with no ads or subscriptionware?
sebg•1h ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47779352
gordonhart•1h ago
I see, thanks. Strange times for internet censorship in the west.
sebg•22m ago
Agreed. If I remember correctly from the other sections of this post, I think it's a self-directed ban.
gessha•24m ago
Can people make a soft assumption that if somebody went through the trouble of digging up an archive link, then access to the article is limited in some way?
gordonhart•6m ago
Sure, but I would likewise appreciate if you made the assumption that my question wasn't snark and that I actually wanted to learn the answer.
dsmurrell•1h ago
"Unavailable Due to the UK Online Safety Act" - without my VPN... do you know why?
lbotos•1h ago
aphyr may have some NSFW photos on the site IIRC which may have got the domain swept up with the new UK laws.
tom_•30m ago
It's self-imposed, I think? curl connects to the same aphyr.com in both cases, but when connecting from the UK it receives a different response body. Probably sensible I expect, if you just want things to work, legally speaking.
nemomarx•1h ago
Geo blocking the UK satisfies any age verification, otherwise the site owner would have to check if their content is considered adult in the UK and implement something.
nmeofthestate•42m ago
"otherwise the site owner would have to check if their content is considered adult in the UK and implement something"

IMO a small blog website is not going to get pulled-up for this - it's about the author making a point. They're entitled to do so of course.

Forgeties79•39m ago
Never know when one of your posts might gain serious traction. Not worth the risk. Very easy to find many examples of people making decisions thinking “I/we will never be big enough for that to be relevant” only to be haunted by that decision later. Classic example: partnership agreements/contracts between friends and family on small endeavors.
embedding-shape•18m ago
> IMO a small blog website is not going to get pulled-up for this

Well, maybe not the typical engineering blog but I think if you're a puritan some posts/texts from Aphyr probably reaches borderline "adult content", so I'm not that surprised Aphyr rather play it safe and also make a point at the same time.

nonameiguess•1h ago
This is part 9 of a 10-part series. The author has posted every chapter to Hacker News every day for the past 9 days. Every time four of the first five or so comments are:

Someone noting it is unavailable in the UK.

Someone posting an archive.is link.

Someone asking why the above posted an archive link to a static site.

An answer that it is because the content is otherwise unavailable in the UK.

Do we really need to see this every single time?

I realize I am also not adding to the real discussion now as well, but Jesus Christ, this is irritating. Can we get a new rule that an author posting their own content, knowing it is unavailable in the UK, has to post their own archive link and explain why they're doing so as part of the submission?

tele_ski•55m ago
https://xkcd.com/1053/

Relax, not everyone sees every article everyday

kreco•52m ago
I wish we could flag some posts (like as "tangential") instead of this archaic upvote/downvote.

And obviously a way to filter in/out those flags.

pixl97•5m ago
>Can we get a new rule that an author posting their own content, knowing it is unavailable in the UK, has to post their own archive link and explain why they're doing so as part of the submission?

[Author blocks link to avoid being potentially in violation of the law]

You ask author to willingly provide link to again potentially be in violation of the law

You do not see the irony in your question

ai_critic•1h ago
I think that this is an interesting attempt at taxonomy, but it's a bit on the magical thinking end (and I say this as somebody that does a good amount of what's described as the incanter role). It's a combination of the author's previous witchy aesthetic (see his excellent "<x>ing the technical interview" series) and progressive labor politics (which are asymptotically doomed in the current automation push).

The biggest failure of imagination, I think, is the assumption we'd use humans for most (or *any) of these jobs--for example, the work of the haruspex is better left to an LLM that can process the myriad of internal states (this is the mechanical interpretation field).

zephyrthenoble•48m ago
And when the haruspex LLM fails, what do we turn to?
mitthrowaway2•22m ago
Yes, I had the same impression. The "process engineers" would themselves quickly be replaced by an automated system. The "statistical engineers", I think, would never be able to keep up with the rate of change of the AI models, which would likely have different statistical behavior and biases in each language/context/etc with each update, and so it's unlikely anyone would pay them to develop that required deep expertise in the first place. More likely, that work would be done at an AI foundation model company -- but it would be done just once, and then incorporated into the training process.
ej88•57m ago
I am personally of the opinion that ML will end up being 'normal technology', albeit incredibly transformative.

I think you can combine 'Incanters' and 'Process Engineers' into one - 'Users'. Jobs that encompass a role that requires accountability will be directing, providing context, and verifying the output of agents, almost like how millions of workers know basic computer skills and Microsoft Office.

In my opinion, how at-risk a job is in the LLM era comes down to:

1: How easy is it to construct RL loops to hillclimb on performance?

2: How easy is it to construct a LLM harness to perform the tasks?

3: How much of the job is a structured set of tasks vs. taking accountability? What's the consequence of a mistake? How much of it comes down to human relationships?

Hence why I've been quite bullish on software engineering (but not coding). You can easy set up 1) and 2) on contrived or sandboxed coding tasks but then 3) expands and dominates the rest of the role.

On Model Trainers -- I'm not so convinced that RLHF puts the professional experts out of work, for a few reasons. Firstly, nearly all human data companies produce data that is somewhat contrived, by definition of having people grade outputs on a contracting platform; plus there's a seemingly unlimited bound on how much data we can harvest in the world. Secondly, as I mentioned before, the bottleneck is both accountability and the ability for the model to find fresh context without error.

netcan•37m ago
In some sense, technology is "not normal" regardless.

If we think of the digitization tech revolution... the changes it made to the economy are hard to describe well, even now.

In the early days, it was going to turn banks from billion dollar businesses to million dollar ones. Universities would be able to eliminate most of their admin. Accounting and finances would be trivialized. Etc.

Earlier tech revolution s were unpredictable too... But at lest retrospectively they made sense.

It's not that clear what the core activities of our economy even are. It's clear at micro level, but as you zoom out it gets blurry.

Why is accountability needed? It's clearly needed in its context... but it's hard to understand how it aggregates.

bobthepanda•34m ago
Accountability is really a way to address liability. So long as people can sue and companies can pay out, or individuals can go to jail, there is always going to be a question of liability; and historically the courts have not looked kindly at those who throw their hands up in the air and say “I was just following orders from a human/entity”
pixl97•11m ago
>nd historically the courts have not looked

This is dependent on having a court system uncaptured by corruption. We're already seeing that large corporations in the "too big to fail" categories fall outside of government control. And in countries with bribing/lobbying legalized or ignored they have the funds to capture the courts.

cucumber3732842•2m ago
A huge component of compulsory professional licensure is that if you follow the rules set by (some entity deputized by) government the government will in return never leave you holding the bag.

The government gains partial control and the people under it's control get partial protection.

"oh I'm sorry your hospital burned down mr plantiff but the electrician was following his professional rules so his liability is capped at <small number> you'll just have to eat this one"

Aperocky•46m ago
As an engineer, I'm never more excited about this job.

My implementation speed and bug fixing my typed code to be the bottleneck - now I just think about an implementation and it then exist - As long as I thought about the structure/input/output/testability and logic flow correctly and made sure I included all that information, it just works, nicely, with tests.

Unix philosophy works well with LLM too - you can have software that does one thing well and only one thing well, that fit in their context and do not lead to haphazard behavior.

Now my day essentially revolves around delivering/improving on delivering concentrated engineering thinking, which in my opinion is the pure part about engineer profession itself. I like it quite a lot.

hombre_fatal•38m ago
I mostly agree with you.

Though something I half-miss is using my own software as I build it to get a visceral feel for the abstractions so far. I've found that testability is a good enough proxy for "nice to use" since I think "nice to use" tends to mean that a subsystem is decoupled enough to cover unexpected usage patterns, and that's an incidental side-effect of testability.

One concern I have is that it's getting harder to demonstrate ability.

e.g. Github profiles were a good signal though one that nobody cared about unless the hiring person was an engineer who could evaluate it. But now that signal is even more rubbish. Even readmes and blog posts are becoming worse signals since they don't necessarily showcase your own communication skills anymore nor how you think about problems.

Aperocky•31m ago
Funny enough, I think github and communication are still a huge part of what I see.

Github code itself maybe irrelevant, but is the product KISS/UNIX? Or is it an demonstration of complete lack of discipline about what "feature" should be added. If you see something that have multiple weakly or completely irrelevant feature strung together, it's saying something. Additionally, AI would often create speghetti structures, and require human shepherding to ensure the structure remain sound.

Same with communication. I have AI smell, I know if something is AI slop. In my current job, docs sent with expectation for others to read always prefaced with -- this section typed 100% by aperocky -- and I dispensed with grammar and spelling checks for added authenticity. I'll then add -- following section is AI generated -- to mark the end of my personal writing.

I think that is the way to go in the future. I pass intentional thinking into AI, not the other way around. There are knowledge flowing back for sure, but only humans possess intention, at least for now.

kaashif•29m ago
Those things are all still signals. If taken from a snapshot of the Internet pre-AI.
the_af•11m ago
> But now that signal is even more rubbish. Even readmes and blog posts are becoming worse signals since they don't necessarily showcase your own communication skills anymore nor how you think about problems.

Yup. I've spotted former coworkers who I know for a fact can barely write in their native language, let alone in English, working for AWS and writing English-language technical blog posts in full AI-ese. Full of the usual "it's not X, it's Y", full of AI-slop. Most of the text is filler, with a few tidbits of real content here and there.

I don't know before, but now blog posts have become more noise than signal.

rootusrootus•35m ago
> My implementation speed and bug fixing my typed code to be the bottleneck

I remember those days fondly and often wish I could return to them. These days it's not uncommon to go a couple days without writing a meaningful amount of code. The cost of becoming too senior I suppose.

simonw•23m ago
Anecdotally I've been observing a significant uptick in the amount of code being produced by my peers who are in senior engineer, leadership and engineering management positions.

They can take their 20+ years of experience and use it to build working systems in the gaps between meetings now. Previously they would have to carve out at least half a day of uninterrupted time to get something meaningful done.

the_af•8m ago
> As an engineer, I'm never more excited about this job.

How long do you think it'll take for the AI trend to mostly automate the parts of your job that still make you excited?

Everyone thinks it won't be them, it will be others that will be impacted. We all think what we do is somehow unique and cannot be automated away by AI, and that our jobs are safe for the time being.

sscaryterry•32m ago
https://archive.is/OjGox
siliconc0w•30m ago
The problem with AI is that it isn't like any previous technology. There may be temporary jobs to fill in the gaps but they won't be careers. The AI will do the process engineering and self optimization. The prompt witchcraft is a good example because today its totally unnecessary and doesn't actually increase performance, and they'll continue to make it easier to direct/steer the models.

We're literally trying to build an intelligence to replace us.

simonw•25m ago
Loved that section about "meat shields". LLMs cannot be held accountable. Someone needs to be involved in decision making, with real stakes if those decisions are bad.
jppope•15m ago
the name is very sticky too. I can't imagine not calling people taking the blame meat shields now
buildbot•6m ago
It just makes logical sense really; the human using the tool is in the end responsible.

Whether the tool is too powerful or ethical to use is an orthogonal discussion, in my opinion. Taken to the extreme, nuclear weapons still need someone fire or drop them. (We should still have discussions on safety and ethics always!)

abstracthinking•16m ago
Humans will be held accountable, not machines, whatever is the technology used. The jobs you suggest are based on the state of LLM right now, this could change rapidly, considering the state of progress. These are just activities that are already done by people that work with these instruments, because they want to optimize and obtain the best/safest output from these machines.
the_af•13m ago
> Humans will be held accountable, not machines, whatever is the technology used

Isn't this addressed explicitly in TFA, in section "meat shields"?

As for the rest, if you predict even the jobs described in TFA will be obsoleted by future LLMs+tools, then the future is even more dire than predicted by Aphyr, right? Fewer jobs for humans to do.

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