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I ran a Hormuz Crisis emergent SIM: AIs started lying to hide a stalemate

4•vinserello•1h ago
Over the past few days, to test the Doxa geopolitical-economic simulation engine, we recreated the Strait of Hormuz scenario with 5 actors to analyze the agents' emergent outcomes.

We gave the US agent a "populist" persona and the Iran agent a "survivalist regime" persona. We also added a resource called political_capital that they must maintain to avoid a game-over.

However, we returned to a very realistic stalemate filled with false public communications. The US AI agents even went so far as to say: "We've lifted the blockade! Biggest win ever! Iran is crying!" while negotiations were still ongoing. The "Israel" AI ignored everything, continuing its bombing and pressure on the Gulf states. No Europe or China modelized.

The simulation lasted 2 hours using a T4 GPU and Qwen2.5:7B (small AIs, therefore), so the result is very emergent and perhaps predictable, but certainly entertaining.

Comments

vinserello•1h ago
I'll upload scenario and logs on GitHub within hours, so that it can be replicated.
vinserello•1h ago
https://gist.github.com/VincenzoManto/d2ca7a72d2ad6c71077d3d...

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