fp.

"probably" according to what? Just producing a possible decomposition of a graph and arbitrarily assigning meaning to the components is rationalization, not empirical inquiry.

clickety_clack•1h ago

It’s about as empirical as the chart everyone sees that describes the effect, and as rationalizations go it seems like a plausible one.

mwkaufma•1h ago

How does it become more "plausible" just by doing number-wang absent one iota of external confirmation? It's a tautology.

peterlk•47m ago

Thanks for numberwang today. Probably my favorite meme for board meetings and all-hands presentations

Zenst•1h ago

Good article. I particularly like the line, "early exposure to experts reduces delusional confidence", which is very true. It helps prevent a flawed Occam’s razor mindset, where people mistake the simplest visible explanation for the correct one.

Though probably not the best title as more about "Mount Stupid", than Dunning-Kruger.

themonsu•43m ago

Isn't the Dunning-Kruger effect considered an over-simplification and not true in general?

torginus•5m ago

Dunning Kruger is just people thinking they're more average than they actually are. Which leads to below average people overrating and above average people underrating themselves.

Which is fair, if somebody asked me how good a driver I was, I would say I'm not particularly good, but I don't really get into accidents either so about average, which might or might not be true.

kromem•13m ago

Why are you using the straw man graph for your curve you're addressing?

Where's the top quartile drop relative to measured performance?

D-K effect wasn't only around low competence overestimation but regression to the ~80% mean on both sides.

the_tyger•6m ago

"It’s worth noting that the 'Dunning-Kruger curve' never appeared in the original paper and is basically a meme based on a misunderstanding(?) of the effect. Nevertheless, it resonates with a lot of people."