“…tracking nearly half a million children born in Western Australia between 1980 and 2001. Of those, 1,870 developed schizophrenia, but not one of the 66 children with cortical blindness did.”
Using this data, one would expect to see only 0.25 cases in those 66 blind kids.
Stated differently, there is around a 78% chance of having 0 cases in those 66 by random chance alone.
Dumb.
yladiz•1h ago
Can you explain how you got that number from the quote? I don’t follow.
wizzwizz4•59m ago
1870/500000*66 = 0.24684. However, it's "nearly half a million", so let's call it 30000 as a conservative estimate: that's still 0.4114 children in expectance, which isn't very many.
bhattid•7m ago
Not the original commenter, but the math is (making some implicit, but arguably reasonable assumptions):
Probability that someone in the population has schizophrenia = (1870/500000) = 0.00374
Probability that someone does NOT have schizophrenia = (1 - 0.00374)
Then if we assume that blind people have the same rate of schizophrenia as the population,
Probability that 66 blind people ALL don't have schizophrenia = (1 - 0.00374)^66 = 0.78
solumunus•21m ago
“That sample of blind children is small, but the pattern holds across more than 70 years of evidence: not a single congenitally blind person with schizophrenia has ever been reported.”
hyperhello•56m ago
Off topic, but do deaf people ever hear voices?
theturtletalks•26m ago
I’ve heard they actually see people signing at them. Also, in India, the voices are actually nice and encouraging I’ve heard.
solumunus•23m ago
> Also, in India, the voices are actually nice and encouraging I’ve heard.
And you’re not as skeptical of this claim?
hyperhello•16m ago
I’m not, actually. I think we all have inner voices if we listen, and it’s possible that different societies have different characteristics. One of them could be whether the environment is on the individual’s side or not. A more compatible inner voice could do better in either situation.
4gotunameagain•7m ago
And the environment in India is on the individual's side ? Where people starve in broad daylight and corpses float on rivers ?
altairprime•17m ago
Huh. I wonder if that means my inability to visualize mentally means I’m partly/fully defended against it? That would explain a subgroup prevalence!
lurquer•1h ago
Using this data, one would expect to see only 0.25 cases in those 66 blind kids.
Stated differently, there is around a 78% chance of having 0 cases in those 66 by random chance alone.
Dumb.
yladiz•1h ago
wizzwizz4•59m ago
bhattid•7m ago
Probability that someone in the population has schizophrenia = (1870/500000) = 0.00374
Probability that someone does NOT have schizophrenia = (1 - 0.00374)
Then if we assume that blind people have the same rate of schizophrenia as the population, Probability that 66 blind people ALL don't have schizophrenia = (1 - 0.00374)^66 = 0.78
solumunus•21m ago