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Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11
11•JumpCrisscross•1h ago

Comments

ramon156•24m ago
https://archive.is/7DSiy
fortran77•22m ago
> "John Pederson outside the homeless shelter in Detroit where he has been living since losing money on Kalshi...Pederson lost $41,000 on a mention-market bet related to hip-hop artist A$AP Rocky in January"
dvh•10m ago
> At first, it worked. Pederson turned about $2,000 into close to $8,000 by betting on daily snowfall totals in Detroit
dist-epoch•7m ago
> On Kalshi, too, losers vastly outnumber winners. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month

So 25% of users are profitable? That's vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable.

ceejayoz•4m ago
On a related note:

"Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets" https://www.engadget.com/big-tech/someone-allegedly-used-a-h...

Category Theory for Tiny ML in Rust

https://hghalebi.github.io/category_theory_transformer_rs/
1•pajop•52s ago•0 comments

Show HN: The Cat Is Under Mayonnaise – Modifying LLM Behavior Without Retraining

https://github.com/andycufari/the-cat-is-under-mayonnaise-experiment
1•andycufari•1m ago•0 comments

Sex matters: European urban birds flee approaching women sooner than men

https://wiley.scienceconnect.io/error?msg=ewogICJpZCIgOiAiYzhmN2JlYjItYTllOC00OWQ0LTkyNTgtM2ZmNWY...
1•w4lker•2m ago•0 comments

The AI Governance Gap

1•Qoris_AI2026•2m ago•1 comments

Show HN: Safety layer between AI agents and databases

https://github.com/fazhq/faz
1•burhanultayyab•2m ago•0 comments

A.I.-Themed High School Is Put on Hold After Parental Backlash

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/nyregion/nyc-ai-high-school-halted.html
2•bookofjoe•3m ago•1 comments

Rural America is resisting the surge in data center construction

https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/04/rural-america-is-resisting-the-surge-in-data-center-construction/
2•speckx•3m ago•0 comments

Trump administration cites national security in stalling 165 wind farms

https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/05/trump-administration-cites-national-security-in-stalling-...
2•ndr42•3m ago•0 comments

From RSS to Atom

https://susam.net/from-rss-to-atom.html
1•susam•4m ago•0 comments

Audion – Music Sequencing Language

https://github.com/audion-lang/audion
1•skor•5m ago•0 comments

The Cartoon That Shut Down Boston

https://nowiknow.com/the-cartoon-that-shut-down-boston/
2•cainxinth•7m ago•0 comments

EuroClojure 2027 in Prague

https://2027.euroclojure.org/
2•kaliszad•7m ago•0 comments

Meta Solved Problem with Kenyan Contractors Seeing Footage of AI Glasses Wearers

https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/05/01/meta-solved-their-problem
3•mooreds•7m ago•0 comments

OpenClaw Got Safer in Public

https://openclaw.ai/blog/openclaw-security-in-public
2•zvikomborero•8m ago•0 comments

ChatGippety: Enterprise-Grade Conversational Compliance

https://chatgippety.com/
2•mooreds•9m ago•0 comments

Denmark faces data center reckoning as power grid overwhelmed

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/denmark-data-centers-moratorium-grid-pause-power-demand.html
3•tcp_handshaker•11m ago•0 comments

Flight data bolsters claim China Eastern plane was deliberately crashed in 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-eastern-crash-ntsb-report-intl-hnk
2•tcp_handshaker•12m ago•0 comments

AI Worries Have Returned to Wall Street. Now Come Earnings

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai-worries-have-returned-to-wall-street-now-come-earnings-d680e19c
4•gmays•12m ago•0 comments

My 2026 goal is to be bored more often

https://cdevroe.com/2025/12/16/2026-goal-boredom/
2•speckx•13m ago•0 comments

PR: Restoring Privacy and Freedom

https://github.com/eu-digital-identity-wallet/av-doc-technical-specification/pull/23
3•monneyboi•15m ago•0 comments

Utah Reduced Chronic Homelessness by 91 Percent (2015)

https://www.npr.org/2015/12/10/459100751/utah-reduced-chronic-homelessness-by-91-percent-heres-how
2•downbad_•16m ago•1 comments

Why this tribe is buying up acres of farmland – and flooding it

https://www.npr.org/2026/05/03/nx-s1-5806062/washington-tribe-restore-wetlands-fish
2•Brajeshwar•18m ago•0 comments

Poverty on the rise as RI families struggle to meet basic living expenses

https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/05/04/federal-data-gaps-aside-poverty-on-the-rise-as-ri-famil...
2•chmaynard•19m ago•0 comments

Easiest way to create agents with local LLMs

https://github.com/iBz-04/quaynor
2•Ibz04•23m ago•0 comments

Back into Plato's Cave

https://akoepke.github.io/cave_umwelten/
2•Murfalo•23m ago•0 comments

Are you conscious? A conversation between Dawkins and ChatGPT

https://richarddawkins.substack.com/p/are-you-conscious-a-conversation
3•mhb•25m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Turn your cat pic into a dancing cat video

https://dancingcats.damjanski.com
4•whatifbelief•25m ago•0 comments

Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

https://www.engadget.com/big-tech/someone-allegedly-used-a-hairdryer-to-rig-polymarket-weather-be...
8•cdrnsf•26m ago•4 comments

You Do Not Understand Browser History (2013)

https://madhatted.com/2013/6/16/you-do-not-understand-browser-history
2•downbad_•27m ago•1 comments

The Surprising Heart of the Data-Center Boom

https://www.city-journal.org/article/loudoun-county-virginia-data-centers-construction
2•eatonphil•29m ago•0 comments