Right, however over-tourism is a real problem.

Tourism provides low quality, transitory jobs, with income flowing more to wealth holders (property owners etc) than to wealth creators. It distorts property markets and sucks the oxygen out of other kinds of business. About time the Med weaned itself off of it.

otoh it's probably great for internal tourism. We get to keep more money in the country.

They have the data already of the max price customers will pay

Massive price jumps in fuel enables panic buying. Fuel prices will be driven by both fear and scarcity, and prices go even higher.

Doesn't matter what the price is if there isn't enough for sale

Why would one not blame the US for this situation?

Not only do those particular prior assumptions date to 1957 in a way that makes deviating from them structurally dangerous, they involve very low military spending in a way that makes deviating from them politically dangerous.

Fixing the budget hole to pay for that spending without resorting to giving many people living in Monaco the Eichmann treatment as a side effect (which is untenable on account of French security guarantees to Monaco) would need some kind of government of hardcore believers who could also do math.

You have Russian asset as president who acts like chaos monkey for the Putin's entertainment.

One thing is correct though that UK security services have not anticipated such outcome and politicians have not done anything about it.

We in Europe negotiated the JCPOA. Read its terms. Understand its lead negotiatior was the EU representative. That was our codified relationship with Iran. Now compare that to the best case after what you geniuses started.

Own up to it. This is solely on the US. The rest of us had it handled until you came along.

Couldn't agree more. Our Navy is a joke. We can barely muster a single destroyer. Burning goodwill with Trump is foolish when europe is completely dependant on the US to defend them from Russia. I don't know what the strategic thinking is here. Demonstrate to the entire world that we are pathetic weaklings and the us that we're useless dependants?

This war might be dumb but it was also predictable. Why were these no contingencies?

The stock market has stopped making sense since the 2008 financial meltdown. Many reasons for this. In part, ZIRP is to blame -- a ton of money flowed into stocks simply because they were the only way to tread water and get a return. In part, you can blame Bitcoin (which demonstrated at scale that you can have an "asset" with zero underlying value and net-negative social utility that still functions as an appreciating value token,) and the meme-stock.

The stock market is basically detached from the industrial manufacturing/production economy -- and even to some extent the services/insurance economy -- and is now vibes/feels based.

Probably people are betting that the situation resolves itself before shit hits the fan.

And there is a bunch of plausible reasons that this belief is not crazy (of course nobody really knows).

- trump literally is called TACO

- the war is really unpopular in usa and midterms are getting closer. There is domestic usa pressure to wrap this up.

- Iran's ecconomy was a mess before all this and is now a disaster. The blockade goes both ways and it seems unlikely iran can keep it up long term

- As shortages approach international pressure from uninvolved parties to resolve the situation one way or another will mount.

Probably markets expect the situation to be resolved soon.

You can check the term structure of oil to confirm: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-swee...

Equities are (in theory) priced on net-present-value of future cash flows, so a temporary <1 year disruption is important but not massively so.

I wonder if some of this is because of the "prices are set on the margins" effect of markets. The price of anything is set by the folks who are actively transacting at any given time; if you're not buying and selling, your opinion doesn't matter.

Oftentimes, near a market top, the people who are value investors and actually care about price end up selling off all their holdings. But because they have already sold, and are not buying, they drop out of the market entirely. Prices get set by the people who are price insensitive, because they're the only ones willing to participate. As a result, you often get the "blow off top" right before a market crash, where the stock market moves sharply upwards even though fundamentals say it should crash. All the folks who believe it will crash have already left and no longer participate in price-setting.

One of the explanations I've heard is that a lot of traders were caught out by how quickly the economy rebounded from COVID-19, so they're overcompensating by underreacting to the current situation.

It's a multi-layered question. On the one hand if energy is more expensive and you still consume roughly the same amount but actually that raises gdp. However you're assuming that there's demand destruction with the rise of energy was your reasonable assumption... but that's uneven and there's going to be an increase in demand for certain things that actually benefit from higher energy prices like anything in electric tech or green energy.

Probably most importantly the economy at this point is largely a digital economy rather than one centered on goods.. in other words GDP growth is no longer coupled to energy consumption. The fact that we're able to transition to a largely remote workforce around covid is a testament to this.

The implication is that in the event that these high prices sustain and there is some demand destruction a lot of fundamental parts of the economy will continue to function in an evolved way for example online.

And then of course there's AI which could be considered sort of an extension of this digital economy which is driving so much of the underlying growth.

That doesn't mean there won't be hot spots like this article is pointing out perhaps the UK is particularly exposed. On the other hand the fact that so much of the UK's economy is financial services and hence in a way benefits from all this volatility ... means it is not all so clear.

It would be easier to say that the real impact will be on the manufacturing powerhouses but even they will benefit from the transition to a solar and battery based energy system.

Now if you believe that it's inevitable that this bubble will have a slowdown and you speculate that the bubble might be partially punctured by these high energy prices that seems like a reasonable hypothesis... but it could also be the opposite.. In other words the demand destruction for energy could actually mean capital is looking for a place to invest fruitful elsewhere.

Counterintuitive as it all may seem, this system is simply not one anyone can reasonably expect to make predictions around at least any more reliably than walking into a casino and expecting to beat the house.

Similarly the experts and talking heads telling you the implications of this war or the Ukraine war are making one dimensional predictions that are simply not honest enough about how chaotic and reflexive these systems are

Before that flights will start being canceled, as prices will be prohibitively high.